Sports Betting
As an oddsmaker, I occasionally hear football bettors proudly proclaim that they’re not numbers’ guys, meaning they don’t put a lot of weight on stats.
I hear similar statements made by football pundits all the time on the radio and television.
I’m not sure why guys make these sorts of comments. Perhaps it’s because they failed math in high school and are afraid of numbers. Or maybe it’s because they feel they’re so knowledgeable about the game that they believe they can handicap a team or game just by watching tape.
Whatever the case, those who foolishly snub their noses at the numbers are good for the bookmaking business, believe me.
But the reality is, the numbers don’t lie. In fact, one influential linesmaker once confessed to me that he had stopped watching games and crafted his odds strictly through statistical analysis. And this is the same guy often credited with releasing the opening line in Las Vegas!
The wise guys and the betting syndicates that give bookmakers panic attacks every week are also numbers’ guys. Typically they input stats into complex computer programs that spit out picks, which all too often win.
While few have access to these computer programs, most have access to in-depth NFL statistics and trends that are freely available on the Internet. Thorough analysis of these numbers will arm even novice bettors with more educated picks.
Turning our attention to the numbers in Sunday’s Super Bowl, what’s interesting (if not frustrating) is that both teams are fairly evenly matched over numerous statistical categories, especially at the quarterback position.
Both teams have reliable pivots who have put up impressive numbers all season. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had the third-best QB rating in the NFL at 98.6; Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck had the fourth-best at 98.2.
Neither QB was prone to turning the ball over - both had only nine interceptions all season. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger has just one pick and Hasselbeck has none. In terms of fumbles, Hasselbeck had only four all season, Roethlisberger had just two. Neither QB has fumbled in the post-season.
Nevertheless, there are a couple of categories where the two differ slightly. For instance, Hasselbeck tossed 24 touchdowns in the regular season, which was quite a bit more then Big Ben at 17.
Hasselbeck also threw for over a thousand more passing yards - 3,459 yards compared to 2,385.
But keep in mind Roethlisberger did miss four games due to injuries, one of which required minor knee surgery. More importantly, there now are indications that Pittsburgh has progressively begun to rely more on Big Ben’s arm than on the legs of its running backs, especially in the playoffs.
During the regular season, the Steelers averaged the fifth-most rushing yards (138.9 ypg), whereas they passed for just 182.9 ypg (24th overall).
In the playoffs, however, Big Ben has averaged 226.1 passing yards through three games. That’s the third-highest total among playoff QB’s behind Tom Brady (271 ypg over two games) and Peyton Manning, who threw for 290 yards in one game.
Big Ben’s effective aerial assault was particularly noticeable against Denver when he threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Roethlisberger is also throwing farther - at 9.4 yards per attempt he leads all playoff passers – and his seven TDs are also the most in the post-season.
The fact that Roethlisberger is getting more opportunities to throw the football, and is having success doing it, comes at precisely the right time - the one place where Seattle has clearly been weak this season is against the pass.
During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed 222.4 ypg through the air (25th overall). That compares to their rushing defense which allowed an average of only 94.4 ypg (fifth-fewest overall).
The Steelers coaching staff will no doubt be planning to exploit this weakness come Sunday. Seattle, of course, will be expecting this and will be pulling out all the stops to put pressure on Big Ben. And QB pressure is something the Seahawks have had success doing – they led the NFL in sacks during the regular season with 50.
On the flipside, the Seattle offense will likely put added emphasis on their aerial attack since the Steelers have also been strong on rush defense (86 ypg, third fewest overall) and weaker against the pass (198 ypg, 16th most overall).
The Steelers are currently 4-point favorites in Super Bowl XL. although the numbers suggest the Steelers might have a slight edge in the game, a Pittsburgh victory by less than four points seems quite plausible.
http://www.sport-betting-links.com
I hear similar statements made by football pundits all the time on the radio and television.
I’m not sure why guys make these sorts of comments. Perhaps it’s because they failed math in high school and are afraid of numbers. Or maybe it’s because they feel they’re so knowledgeable about the game that they believe they can handicap a team or game just by watching tape.
Whatever the case, those who foolishly snub their noses at the numbers are good for the bookmaking business, believe me.
But the reality is, the numbers don’t lie. In fact, one influential linesmaker once confessed to me that he had stopped watching games and crafted his odds strictly through statistical analysis. And this is the same guy often credited with releasing the opening line in Las Vegas!
The wise guys and the betting syndicates that give bookmakers panic attacks every week are also numbers’ guys. Typically they input stats into complex computer programs that spit out picks, which all too often win.
While few have access to these computer programs, most have access to in-depth NFL statistics and trends that are freely available on the Internet. Thorough analysis of these numbers will arm even novice bettors with more educated picks.
Turning our attention to the numbers in Sunday’s Super Bowl, what’s interesting (if not frustrating) is that both teams are fairly evenly matched over numerous statistical categories, especially at the quarterback position.
Both teams have reliable pivots who have put up impressive numbers all season. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger had the third-best QB rating in the NFL at 98.6; Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck had the fourth-best at 98.2.
Neither QB was prone to turning the ball over - both had only nine interceptions all season. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger has just one pick and Hasselbeck has none. In terms of fumbles, Hasselbeck had only four all season, Roethlisberger had just two. Neither QB has fumbled in the post-season.
Nevertheless, there are a couple of categories where the two differ slightly. For instance, Hasselbeck tossed 24 touchdowns in the regular season, which was quite a bit more then Big Ben at 17.
Hasselbeck also threw for over a thousand more passing yards - 3,459 yards compared to 2,385.
But keep in mind Roethlisberger did miss four games due to injuries, one of which required minor knee surgery. More importantly, there now are indications that Pittsburgh has progressively begun to rely more on Big Ben’s arm than on the legs of its running backs, especially in the playoffs.
During the regular season, the Steelers averaged the fifth-most rushing yards (138.9 ypg), whereas they passed for just 182.9 ypg (24th overall).
In the playoffs, however, Big Ben has averaged 226.1 passing yards through three games. That’s the third-highest total among playoff QB’s behind Tom Brady (271 ypg over two games) and Peyton Manning, who threw for 290 yards in one game.
Big Ben’s effective aerial assault was particularly noticeable against Denver when he threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Roethlisberger is also throwing farther - at 9.4 yards per attempt he leads all playoff passers – and his seven TDs are also the most in the post-season.
The fact that Roethlisberger is getting more opportunities to throw the football, and is having success doing it, comes at precisely the right time - the one place where Seattle has clearly been weak this season is against the pass.
During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed 222.4 ypg through the air (25th overall). That compares to their rushing defense which allowed an average of only 94.4 ypg (fifth-fewest overall).
The Steelers coaching staff will no doubt be planning to exploit this weakness come Sunday. Seattle, of course, will be expecting this and will be pulling out all the stops to put pressure on Big Ben. And QB pressure is something the Seahawks have had success doing – they led the NFL in sacks during the regular season with 50.
On the flipside, the Seattle offense will likely put added emphasis on their aerial attack since the Steelers have also been strong on rush defense (86 ypg, third fewest overall) and weaker against the pass (198 ypg, 16th most overall).
The Steelers are currently 4-point favorites in Super Bowl XL. although the numbers suggest the Steelers might have a slight edge in the game, a Pittsburgh victory by less than four points seems quite plausible.
http://www.sport-betting-links.com
posted by adairk at
6:24 p.m.
|
0 comments
