Sports Betting

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Sports Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC East
Buffalo Bills Coming off a 9-7 campaign in 2004, the Bills had high hopes for the 2005 season. They had finished strong after a terrible start in '04 and a loss to the Steelers' 'B' team on the final day had kept them out of the playoffs. That loss convinced the team that QB Drew Bledsoe wasn't the man to lead the team forward and they dumped him in favor of QB J.P. Losman. The defense (top 5 in '04) returned intact (minus DT Pat Williams) and things looked good for the coming season. It never worked out that way, as Losman struggled early, leading the team to a 1-3 mark before he was replaced by QB Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb led them to 2 quick wins but Buffalo then proceeded to lose 7 of 8 en route to a 5-11 season. The defense finished 29th overall and 31st vs. the run as Buffalo missed Williams a lot more than they thought they would. The passing game ranked 29th as Holcomb and Losman failed to take advantage of fleet WR Lee Evans' speed. The O-line had a very bad year, with injuries, age and just poor blocking dooming the offense. The poor season cost President/GM Tom Donahoe his job and Head Coach Mike Mularkey gracefully stepped aside, paving the way for the return of Marv Levy to oversee the football operations and Dick Jauron (former Bear and Lion HC) to run the team on the field. The team had many needs entering free agency but has gone the route of the discount shopper so far. They dumped SS Lawyer Milloy (ATL), DT Sam Adams, OL Mike Williams (JAX), TE Mark Campbell and DT Justin Bannan (BAL) to get under the cap and have taken it slow in free agency. They have added S Matt Bowen (WAS), WR Andre' Davis (NE), C Melvin Fowler (MIN), QB Craig Nall (GB) and TE Robert Royal (WAS) but all of these players figure to be backups. Fowler and Royal will contend for starting jobs but at the very least, at depth at places they were needed. DT Larry Triplett (IND) was also signed but he never lived up to his 2nd-round status with the Colts. DT is the team's biggest need but I don't think the Triplett signing alleviates that need completely. He will join the rotation but a big run-stuffing tackle is needed to keep interior linemen away from smallish MLB London Fletcher. The team could target DT in the 1st round of the draft (8th pick). A LT is also a huge need. Jonas Jennings left before last season to sign a rich deal with the 49ers and the team plugged in Mike Gandy with disastrous results. Look for the team to take an OT on the first day of the draft if they don't sign a veteran in free agency. With the departure of Milloy, a strong safety is also needed. FS Troy Vincent will be 35 next season and has lost some steps. Both positions need upgrades and the team will hope to draft at least one starter. The Bills probably won't make a big splash in the remaining days of FA but they have given WR Eric Moulds permission to seek a trade. His departure would create the need for another starting receiver but the FA pool is shallow and the draft isn't stocked with wideouts either. This will be a situation worth watching. Miami Dolphins Miami entered the 2005 season on the heels of a disastrous 2004 campaign where they went 4-12. RB Ricky Williams killed the team when he bolted just prior to training camp to seek his spiritual identity and some good pot. New HC Nick Saban injected badly-needed life into south Florida and the team responded with a 9-7 record, including a 6-game win streak to close the season. Rookie RB Ronnie Brown was brought along slowly but finished with 907 yards and a 4.4 yards-per-carry average. Saban welcomed Williams back and he was the good soldier, splitting carries and keeping his nose clean. QB was largely unsettled and prevented the team from progressing further. New O-line coach Hudson Houck solidified his status as a miracle worker by transforming a poor unit that surrendered 52 sacks in '04 to a much stronger group that allowed only 26 this season and paved the way for the ground game to excel. On the down side, the team committed a franchise-high 132 penalties, which led to many failures on 3rd down, both offensively and defensively. ILB Zach Thomas excelled in the new 3-4 scheme and rookie ILB Channing Crowder proved to be a capable running mate. Rookie CB Travis Daniels (a Saban player from LSU) also became a starter and played well. The Dolphins began free agency by dumping several older, expensive players to free up money to bring in more difference-makers. CBs Sam Madison (NYG) and Reggie Howard, QBs Sage Rosenfels (HOU) and Gus Frerotte (STL), OTs Stockar McDougle (JAX) and Damion McIntosh, OLB Junior Seau, S Tebucky Jones and WR Bryan Gilmore (SF) were all shown the door. The team made an aggressive move in trading a 2nd-round pick in this year's draft for Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper. They hope he'll give them the QB play the franchise has lacked since Dan Marino hung 'em up. However, Culpepper is coming off a severe knee injury and was largely ineffective (6-12 TD/INT ratio) when he did play last year. CBs Will Allen (NYG), Andre Goodman (DET) and Renaldo Hill (OAK) will battle Will Poole for the starting spot opposite Daniels. OLB Sedrick Hodge (NO) joins a unit desperate for playmakers, while O.J. Shelton (CLE) should win the job at left tackle. TE Justin Peelle (SD) provides good depth behind Randy McMichael. The Dolphins have appeared to address their 3 biggest needs with Culpepper, Shelton and the trio of corners. WR, DT and OLB are also areas they would like to improve and the O-line could still use a few more bodies. Miami still has a 1st-rounder (16th) and may trade down to get extra picks. With no glaring needs, they could go the best-available-athlete route or draft an OLB who can start immediately. They also could trade RB Williams for a pick or two but rumors about another failed drug test could end those talks (DEN) immediately. New England Patriots The Patriots entered the 2005 season fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl wins and were looking to become the first team to pull the trifecta. They won the East for the 3rd-straight season but injuries sabotaged the team and they bowed out in Denver in the second round of the playoffs. The secondary was the hardest area hit and the replacements couldn't get the job done. New England ranked 31st in pass defense and 29th in 3rd-down defense, two areas the offense (7th overall, 2nd in passing) couldn't overcome. Despite a non-existent ground game, QB Tom Brady threw for over 4,000 yards (a career first) and solidified his status as a great leader. RB Corey Dillon was injured most of the season and the O-line lost two starters to injury and relied on rookies LG Logan Mankins and LT Nick Kaczur to man the left side. ILB Tedy Bruschi made an inspired return after suffering a stroke in February. His return sparked the Patriots and gave the whole team the boost they needed after some very poor play earlier in the year (41-17 loss to SD and 40-21 loss to IND, both at home). The team also missed on virtually all of their free agent signings (OLB Chad Brown, ILB Monte Beisel, CB Duane Starks and WR David Terrell) but did get some good play from WR-KR Tim Dwight. New England started free agency parting ways with some key veterans from their Super Bowl years, players they will miss. Gone are PK Adam Vinatieri (IND), WR David Givens (TEN), TE Christian Fauria (WAS), RT Tom Ashworth (SEA) and OLB Willie McGinest (CLE). WR Andre' Davis (BUF) was a little-used backup. These players represent a good part of the team's core and won't be easily replaced. Generally the Patriots restock through the draft and in the latter stages of free agency. That strategy failed last season and they usually don't lose the type of players they lost this offseason. The only player they have added is WR Reche Caldwell (SD), a player who didn't live up to his 2nd-round (2002) draft status. At the least, he may replace Davis or Dwight but not Givens. Going into the draft, New England has some serious needs to address. CB is at the top of the list. The Pats need a shutdown corner with size, something they lack now. They also have depth issues and will probably draft at least 2 CBs. PK is also a need but look for them to go the veteran route there. No matter who they sign, he won't be a Vinatieri, one of the best clutch kickers of all time. LB and WR are also near the top of the list. McGinest, while aging, knew the system inside and out and was still productive. His replacement probably isn't on the roster right now. WR also sticks out as a need. Deion Branch is one starter and Troy Brown was resigned. Bethel Johnson hasn't developed like the team had hoped and there is an opening for a big, tough receiver. A SS to groom behind aging Rodney Harrison and a young RB will also be targets for the club. The Pats love to wheel and deal and accumulate picks but usually add picks for the following year. Look for them to add more picks for this draft and try to restock a cupboard that is stating to look a little bare. New York Jets New York had a very successful 2004 season, winning a playoff game at San Diego before PK Doug Brien cost them a game at Pittsburgh and a shot at the AFC title game. 2005 was supposed to be a year they took a step up but they took 10 steps back. Within 7 plays in a Week 3 loss at Jacksonville, the team lost QBs Chad Pennington and Jay Fiedler for the season. That ended their playoff hopes and they had to unretire Vinny Testaverde to get through the year. Injuries took their toll on the backfield and O-line, forcing a game defense to spend too much time on the field. The offense ranked 31st, including 31st in rushing, one year after RB Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing. They also ranked 29th in scoring and 30th in sack pct. allowed. In short, the offense stunk. In their first 12 games, they topped 20 points once, finishing with a 4-12 record. The defense missed NT Jason Ferguson (DAL) and ranked 29th versus the run but the pass defense held up remarkably well, ranking 2nd overall and was led by CB Ty Law's 10 interceptions. DE John Abraham stayed healthy all season and led the team with 10 ½ sacks. Despite trailing in most of their games, the Jets played hard, a tribute to Head Coach Herman Edwards. After the season, however, Edwards forced his way out of town, taking the job in Kansas City formerly held by his mentor, Dick Vermeil. Eric Mangini, a Bill Belichick disciple from New England was hired and immediately forced the resignation of GM Terry Bradway. To say it is unsettled in New York is a definite understatement. The Jets used free agency to finally address the Abraham situation. Tired of franchising him and not willing to give him a long-term deal, New York sent him to Atlanta in a 3-way deal with Denver. They got the 29th pick in the draft for him, more than fair compensation for a player with his inconsistency. Faced with a burgeoning salary cap, they dumped FB Jerald Sowell, LT Jason Fabini, C Kevin Mawae, DT Lance Legree, QB Fiedler and CB Law. They added DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (PIT) ostensibly to replace Abraham, but he's an aging 3-4 DE and probably not the best fit here. Because QB Pennington has had 2 shoulder operations in the last 9 months, they traded for Washington QB Patrick Ramsey. That was a good move and with Brooks Bollinger (56.4 pass completion; 7-6 TD/INT ratio) he gives the Jets insurance if Pennington, who never had good arm strength to begin with, can't make a full recovery. The team is still close to the cap and isn't expected to make any splashy moves in FA until after June 1. Entering the draft, the Jets have a plethora of needs, especially on offense. They own the No.4 pick overall and could really use LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson of Virginia. Ferguson would have been the 3rd-overall pick by Cleveland last season if he would have come out as a junior and he remains an elite prospect. RB has quickly become a need area, as Martin started to show his age last season and rookie Cedric Houston is a power runner that lacks breakaway speed. A big run-stuffing DT is also a need as the team was lost without J. Ferguson last year. The release of Mawae, a multi-time Pro Bowler, has made center a huge need and guards are also needed. Pete Kendall will start somewhere in the interior but he is coming off a poor season. The loss of Law means CB is another spot that needs an upgrade or at least depth. A TE that can block AND catch would also be nice but that might not be addressed until later in the draft. Ramsey is still relatively young so drafting a QB, if he's available, doesn't figure to be in the Jets' plans. There is no RB that warrants being picked at 4 (except USC's Reggie Bush) but he's expected to be off the board then. A trade down would seem to be a likely scenario if D. Ferguson is gone.
http://www.sport-betting-links.com

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home