Sports Betting
posted by adairk at
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Saturday, April 15, 2006
NFL Betting
NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC North
Baltimore Ravens The Ravens were expected to contend for a playoff spot but offensive woes led to a 2-7 start before they rallied to win 4 of their last 7 games to finish 6-10. The offense, despite several offseason upgrades, was sabotaged by poor QB play from Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright. They ranked 24th overall and didn't score 20 points until their 11th game. They had one 20+ point game in their first 13 outings and that just won't get it done in the NFL. Despite injuries to MLB Ray Lewis and SS Ed Reed, the defense acquitted itself well, ranking 5th overall. OLB Adalius Thomas led the defense and LB Bart Scott, Lewis' replacement, also played well. Boller had 2 strong games at the end of the season but faltered badly in the season finale at Cleveland. The O-Line was a sore spot all season as even All-World LT Jonathan Ogden didn't play up to his usual standards. The team used ancient CBs Deion Sanders and Dale Carter in their nickel and dime packages but expect both to be gone this year. Despite the substandard QB play, TE Todd Heap led the offense with 75 catches for 855 yards and 7 scores. FA WR Derrick Mason caught 86 passes (3rd in AFC) but only scored 3 times. Unlike recent drafts, the Ravens got little contribution from their '05 class as only WR Mark Clayton (44 catches) contributed. Despite ample cap room, Baltimore has been quiet in the early stages of free agency. They have sustained some losses, as RB Chester Taylor (MIN), P Dave Zastudil (CLE), FS Will Demps (NYG), TE Darnell Dinkins (CLE) and DT Ma'ake Kemoeatu (CAR) signed elsewhere. They have only added CB Corey Ivy (STL) and special teamer DE-LB Gary Stills (KC) up to this point. The Ravens generally will have a big signing or two but have yet to pull the trigger this year. Expect them to look for a veteran QB and some established players for their lines and at FS. The Ravens still have a lot of their own FAs to make decisions on. Some of the top players who remain unsigned are Scott, OLB Tommy Polley, DE Anthony Weaver, Wright and S Chad Williams. If Weaver leaves, DE becomes a priority. Baltimore owns the 13th pick and could go any number of ways. None of the top 3 QBs figure to be there but they could go for a top RB, despite resigning Jamal Lewis. He struggled last season and spent 4 months in jail in the offseason. An O-lineman that can start now would be of use but none figure to warrant a pick at that spot. The Ravens may be better suited to trade down and try to gain extra mid-round picks to shore up their lines. A FS who could start now would be welcome. Ivy could be the new nickel back but a young corner with solid cover skills could also be targeted. BALT added RB Mike Anderson (DEN) - The addition of Anderson gives the Ravens two big, bruising backs but look for them to acquire a smaller scatback- type of runner as a change of pace. Anderson and Lewis will probably split carries in the early part of the season. BALT lost DE Anthony Weaver - This loss is offset by the signing of DE Trevor Pryce (DEN). Pryce, if healthy, is a better pass rusher than Weaver and should make more big plays. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals came into 2005 after back-to-back 8-8 seasons in the first two years of the Marvin Lewis era. The coach preached patience and it paid off in spades as Cincinnati raced out to a 4-0 record en route to an 11-3 start and the clinching of the AFC North title, their first in 17 years. However, they dropped their last 2 regular-season games as the suspect run defense sprung leaks and the secondary started to give up big plays. In their playoff game, QB Carson Palmer, coming off a near-MVP season (32 TD passes, 67.8 completion pct. and 101.1 QB rating) suffered a severe knee injury after completing his first pass and may not be ready for the start of the season. They bowed out to Pittsburgh as QB Jon Kitna couldn't sustain drives. The defense also bears blame for failure to get critical stops. Despite the disappointing conclusion, it was still a banner year for this young team. The offense ranked 6th overall and 4th in scoring. The O-line, led by bookend tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson, ranked 2nd in sack pct. allowed. WR Chad Johnson talked a good game and backed it up, leading the AFC in catches (97) and yards (1,432). He also caught 9 TD passes. The defense, despite an NFL-high 31 picks, ranked 28th overall and 30th in 3rd-down defense. Rookie MLB Odell Thurman was a year-long starter and quickly became the leader on defense. Fellow rookie David Pollack took a while to get going but also became a contributor. The D-line and secondary were weak links, as a season-ending injury to FS Madieu Williams really hurt the secondary. Despite being near the top in available cap space, the Bengals haven't spent much. Bringing in former Super Bowl MVP S Dexter Jackson (TB) should help the secondary. WR-KR Antonio Chatman (GB) should help the return game. Those are the only two additions the club has made. Gone are TE Matt Schobel (PHI), Kitna (DET) and DE Duane Clemons. The club still has 7-8 of their own FAs but none figure to be a priority, especially with the solid drafts executed in the past five seasons. The team would love to sign a veteran run-stuffing DT and a productive TE. CB is also an area they would like to upgrade. The Bengals enter the draft with the 24th pick, their lowest pick in years. DT remains the primary need but the team may address that with a veteran. Jackson and Williams are both FS-types but the team will probably play both of them, so don't expect a high pick on a SS thumper. This is a good draft for TEs, so expect a 2nd or 3rd-round pick to be spent there. A pass-rushing DE who can hold up at the point of attack would also be welcome. The O-line played great last season but C Rich Braham is 35 and his successor could be tabbed here. More corners would also help and the club may spend a first day pick on one. Until the Bengals loosen the purse strings in FA, it's hard to say where they will go in the early rounds of the draft. CIN lost WR Kevin Walter (HOU) Cleveland Browns The Browns entered 2005 knowing there would be growing pains after the disastrous Butch Davis regime. The new team of GM Phil Savage and HC Romeo Crennel knew there would be lumps but also expected to see progress. They were right on both accounts. Cleveland won 6 games and the defense did better than expected after Crennel installed the 3-4. They had a stretch in midseason where they allowed 19 points or less in 7 of 8 games. This was done without a lot of talent in the front seven. They ranked 30th in run defense and just couldn't get stops when they needed them. The secondary played better than expected. QB Trent Dilfer was serviceable as a caretaker but rookie QB Charlie Frye figures to lead the team this season. The trade that brought RB Reuben Droughns to Cleveland paid handsomely as he became the first Cleveland RB to top 1,000 yards (1,232) SINCE 1985. TE Kellen Winslow was lost for the season after some ill-advised hijinks on a motorcycle. He has played 1 complete game in 2 years. If he doesn't stay healthy he'll have to return to being Vin Diesel's stand-in. Rookie WR Braylon Edwards was lost for the year just when he started to make an impact. Overall, considering the talent available, installing a new defensive system, as well as integrating several new starters, this wasn't a bad season in Cleveland and the future finally looks bright. As expected, the Browns have been major players in FA so far. With up to a reported $30 million in cap space, Savage has had money at his disposal to bring in the players he and Crennel want. Gone are DT Amon Gordon (DEN), TE Aaron Shea (SD), DE-LB Kenard Lang (DEN), LB Ben Taylor (GB), LT L.J. Shelton (MIA), WR Antonio Bryant (SF), G Mike Pucillo (WAS), DT Jason Fisk and CB Michael Lehan. S Chris Crocker was traded to Atlanta for a draft pick. AS expected, the front seven was bolstered by two of Crennel's former players: OLB Willie McGinest (NE) and NT Ted Washington (OAK). These two should really help acclimate the young players to the system as well as contribute some on the field but both are aging. TE Darnell Dinkins (BAL) replaces Shea. G Bob Hallen (SD) and LT Kevin Shaffer (ATL) figure to battle for starting spots. P Dave Zastudil (BAL) will be a big upgrade and his signing hurts a division rival. WR Joe Jurevicius (SEA) adds a veteran presence to a young receiving corps and should still be productive. The jewel so far has been the signing of Pro Bowl C LeCharles Bentley. This means incumbent Jeff Faine will either be cut or moved to guard. The O-line has really been upgraded, freeing up the team to spend draft picks in other critical areas. Despite the many additions in free agency, Cleveland still has some big needs. They need a few more LBs, both on the inside and the outside. They should be able to grab a good one with the 12th pick if they want. NT and DE are also spots that need bodies sooner rather than later. They could also use another safety and corner. Overall, the team looks a lot better now than when the season ended. Expect the front seven to get the most attention on draft day. The offense may get a body or two but this draft will be about defense. Pittsburgh Steelers After going 15-1 in 2004 before crapping out at home (Again!) in the AFC title game, Pittsburgh entered 2005 with something to prove. After stumbling to a 7-5 record and little hope of winning the division, something clicked and the team turned it on. They won their last 4 games by 12 points or more. In the playoffs they won at Cincinnati, setting up a rematch with the Colts (who had trounced them 26-7 on Monday night in Week 12). The Steelers were all over them and despite a big fumble by RB Jerome Bettis, they prevailed 21-18. The game at Denver wasn't close for the AFC title. This put the Steelers in the Super Bowl for the 6th time and with some terrible officiating (worst in Super Bowl history by most accounts) they prevailed 21-10 over Seattle. There were many heroes for the team but QB Ben Roethlisberger gets a lot of credit for his cool demeanor, ability to play through pain and strong leadership skills. RB Willie Parker was a revelation, leading the team with 1,202 yards on the ground. Bettis was effective in his swan song and the defense ranked 4th overall and No.3 vs. the run. OLB Clark Haggans was effective as a new starter and SS Troy Polamalu emerged as a difference-maker. Pittsburgh is never busy shoppers in free agency and this year appears to be no different. They have had more losses than gains and will try to shore up the losses in the draft. Gone are WR Antwaan Randle El, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (NYJ), FS Chris Hope (TEN), S Mike Logan, S Russell Stuvaints, QB Tommy Maddox and CB Willie Williams. DE Rodney Bailey (SEA) was signed to battle Brett Keisel to replace von Oelhoffen, while S Ryan Clark figures to be a backup safety at best. Receiver took a hit with the loss of Randle El but there aren't many top FA wideouts available. Pittsburgh just doesn't throw money at other team's free agents very often and look for them to be bargain shoppers after June 1. WR has emerged as one of the team's top needs after the loss of Randle El. With the 32nd pick the team could find a wideout but this isn't a deep draft for receivers. RB is also a need as Bettis has retired, Parker has started only one season and RB Duce Staley can't stay healthy. Expect the Steelers to draft a big RB in the early to mid rounds. A FS is also needed as a potential starter isn't on the roster. Some LB depth would be nice and the Steelers are famous for finding great LB value later in the draft. Pittsburgh has remained competitive despite losing FAs every year because they draft so well. Only one of their picks in the last 4 years is out of the NFL.
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NFL Offseason Report - AFC North
Baltimore Ravens The Ravens were expected to contend for a playoff spot but offensive woes led to a 2-7 start before they rallied to win 4 of their last 7 games to finish 6-10. The offense, despite several offseason upgrades, was sabotaged by poor QB play from Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright. They ranked 24th overall and didn't score 20 points until their 11th game. They had one 20+ point game in their first 13 outings and that just won't get it done in the NFL. Despite injuries to MLB Ray Lewis and SS Ed Reed, the defense acquitted itself well, ranking 5th overall. OLB Adalius Thomas led the defense and LB Bart Scott, Lewis' replacement, also played well. Boller had 2 strong games at the end of the season but faltered badly in the season finale at Cleveland. The O-Line was a sore spot all season as even All-World LT Jonathan Ogden didn't play up to his usual standards. The team used ancient CBs Deion Sanders and Dale Carter in their nickel and dime packages but expect both to be gone this year. Despite the substandard QB play, TE Todd Heap led the offense with 75 catches for 855 yards and 7 scores. FA WR Derrick Mason caught 86 passes (3rd in AFC) but only scored 3 times. Unlike recent drafts, the Ravens got little contribution from their '05 class as only WR Mark Clayton (44 catches) contributed. Despite ample cap room, Baltimore has been quiet in the early stages of free agency. They have sustained some losses, as RB Chester Taylor (MIN), P Dave Zastudil (CLE), FS Will Demps (NYG), TE Darnell Dinkins (CLE) and DT Ma'ake Kemoeatu (CAR) signed elsewhere. They have only added CB Corey Ivy (STL) and special teamer DE-LB Gary Stills (KC) up to this point. The Ravens generally will have a big signing or two but have yet to pull the trigger this year. Expect them to look for a veteran QB and some established players for their lines and at FS. The Ravens still have a lot of their own FAs to make decisions on. Some of the top players who remain unsigned are Scott, OLB Tommy Polley, DE Anthony Weaver, Wright and S Chad Williams. If Weaver leaves, DE becomes a priority. Baltimore owns the 13th pick and could go any number of ways. None of the top 3 QBs figure to be there but they could go for a top RB, despite resigning Jamal Lewis. He struggled last season and spent 4 months in jail in the offseason. An O-lineman that can start now would be of use but none figure to warrant a pick at that spot. The Ravens may be better suited to trade down and try to gain extra mid-round picks to shore up their lines. A FS who could start now would be welcome. Ivy could be the new nickel back but a young corner with solid cover skills could also be targeted. BALT added RB Mike Anderson (DEN) - The addition of Anderson gives the Ravens two big, bruising backs but look for them to acquire a smaller scatback- type of runner as a change of pace. Anderson and Lewis will probably split carries in the early part of the season. BALT lost DE Anthony Weaver - This loss is offset by the signing of DE Trevor Pryce (DEN). Pryce, if healthy, is a better pass rusher than Weaver and should make more big plays. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals came into 2005 after back-to-back 8-8 seasons in the first two years of the Marvin Lewis era. The coach preached patience and it paid off in spades as Cincinnati raced out to a 4-0 record en route to an 11-3 start and the clinching of the AFC North title, their first in 17 years. However, they dropped their last 2 regular-season games as the suspect run defense sprung leaks and the secondary started to give up big plays. In their playoff game, QB Carson Palmer, coming off a near-MVP season (32 TD passes, 67.8 completion pct. and 101.1 QB rating) suffered a severe knee injury after completing his first pass and may not be ready for the start of the season. They bowed out to Pittsburgh as QB Jon Kitna couldn't sustain drives. The defense also bears blame for failure to get critical stops. Despite the disappointing conclusion, it was still a banner year for this young team. The offense ranked 6th overall and 4th in scoring. The O-line, led by bookend tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson, ranked 2nd in sack pct. allowed. WR Chad Johnson talked a good game and backed it up, leading the AFC in catches (97) and yards (1,432). He also caught 9 TD passes. The defense, despite an NFL-high 31 picks, ranked 28th overall and 30th in 3rd-down defense. Rookie MLB Odell Thurman was a year-long starter and quickly became the leader on defense. Fellow rookie David Pollack took a while to get going but also became a contributor. The D-line and secondary were weak links, as a season-ending injury to FS Madieu Williams really hurt the secondary. Despite being near the top in available cap space, the Bengals haven't spent much. Bringing in former Super Bowl MVP S Dexter Jackson (TB) should help the secondary. WR-KR Antonio Chatman (GB) should help the return game. Those are the only two additions the club has made. Gone are TE Matt Schobel (PHI), Kitna (DET) and DE Duane Clemons. The club still has 7-8 of their own FAs but none figure to be a priority, especially with the solid drafts executed in the past five seasons. The team would love to sign a veteran run-stuffing DT and a productive TE. CB is also an area they would like to upgrade. The Bengals enter the draft with the 24th pick, their lowest pick in years. DT remains the primary need but the team may address that with a veteran. Jackson and Williams are both FS-types but the team will probably play both of them, so don't expect a high pick on a SS thumper. This is a good draft for TEs, so expect a 2nd or 3rd-round pick to be spent there. A pass-rushing DE who can hold up at the point of attack would also be welcome. The O-line played great last season but C Rich Braham is 35 and his successor could be tabbed here. More corners would also help and the club may spend a first day pick on one. Until the Bengals loosen the purse strings in FA, it's hard to say where they will go in the early rounds of the draft. CIN lost WR Kevin Walter (HOU) Cleveland Browns The Browns entered 2005 knowing there would be growing pains after the disastrous Butch Davis regime. The new team of GM Phil Savage and HC Romeo Crennel knew there would be lumps but also expected to see progress. They were right on both accounts. Cleveland won 6 games and the defense did better than expected after Crennel installed the 3-4. They had a stretch in midseason where they allowed 19 points or less in 7 of 8 games. This was done without a lot of talent in the front seven. They ranked 30th in run defense and just couldn't get stops when they needed them. The secondary played better than expected. QB Trent Dilfer was serviceable as a caretaker but rookie QB Charlie Frye figures to lead the team this season. The trade that brought RB Reuben Droughns to Cleveland paid handsomely as he became the first Cleveland RB to top 1,000 yards (1,232) SINCE 1985. TE Kellen Winslow was lost for the season after some ill-advised hijinks on a motorcycle. He has played 1 complete game in 2 years. If he doesn't stay healthy he'll have to return to being Vin Diesel's stand-in. Rookie WR Braylon Edwards was lost for the year just when he started to make an impact. Overall, considering the talent available, installing a new defensive system, as well as integrating several new starters, this wasn't a bad season in Cleveland and the future finally looks bright. As expected, the Browns have been major players in FA so far. With up to a reported $30 million in cap space, Savage has had money at his disposal to bring in the players he and Crennel want. Gone are DT Amon Gordon (DEN), TE Aaron Shea (SD), DE-LB Kenard Lang (DEN), LB Ben Taylor (GB), LT L.J. Shelton (MIA), WR Antonio Bryant (SF), G Mike Pucillo (WAS), DT Jason Fisk and CB Michael Lehan. S Chris Crocker was traded to Atlanta for a draft pick. AS expected, the front seven was bolstered by two of Crennel's former players: OLB Willie McGinest (NE) and NT Ted Washington (OAK). These two should really help acclimate the young players to the system as well as contribute some on the field but both are aging. TE Darnell Dinkins (BAL) replaces Shea. G Bob Hallen (SD) and LT Kevin Shaffer (ATL) figure to battle for starting spots. P Dave Zastudil (BAL) will be a big upgrade and his signing hurts a division rival. WR Joe Jurevicius (SEA) adds a veteran presence to a young receiving corps and should still be productive. The jewel so far has been the signing of Pro Bowl C LeCharles Bentley. This means incumbent Jeff Faine will either be cut or moved to guard. The O-line has really been upgraded, freeing up the team to spend draft picks in other critical areas. Despite the many additions in free agency, Cleveland still has some big needs. They need a few more LBs, both on the inside and the outside. They should be able to grab a good one with the 12th pick if they want. NT and DE are also spots that need bodies sooner rather than later. They could also use another safety and corner. Overall, the team looks a lot better now than when the season ended. Expect the front seven to get the most attention on draft day. The offense may get a body or two but this draft will be about defense. Pittsburgh Steelers After going 15-1 in 2004 before crapping out at home (Again!) in the AFC title game, Pittsburgh entered 2005 with something to prove. After stumbling to a 7-5 record and little hope of winning the division, something clicked and the team turned it on. They won their last 4 games by 12 points or more. In the playoffs they won at Cincinnati, setting up a rematch with the Colts (who had trounced them 26-7 on Monday night in Week 12). The Steelers were all over them and despite a big fumble by RB Jerome Bettis, they prevailed 21-18. The game at Denver wasn't close for the AFC title. This put the Steelers in the Super Bowl for the 6th time and with some terrible officiating (worst in Super Bowl history by most accounts) they prevailed 21-10 over Seattle. There were many heroes for the team but QB Ben Roethlisberger gets a lot of credit for his cool demeanor, ability to play through pain and strong leadership skills. RB Willie Parker was a revelation, leading the team with 1,202 yards on the ground. Bettis was effective in his swan song and the defense ranked 4th overall and No.3 vs. the run. OLB Clark Haggans was effective as a new starter and SS Troy Polamalu emerged as a difference-maker. Pittsburgh is never busy shoppers in free agency and this year appears to be no different. They have had more losses than gains and will try to shore up the losses in the draft. Gone are WR Antwaan Randle El, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (NYJ), FS Chris Hope (TEN), S Mike Logan, S Russell Stuvaints, QB Tommy Maddox and CB Willie Williams. DE Rodney Bailey (SEA) was signed to battle Brett Keisel to replace von Oelhoffen, while S Ryan Clark figures to be a backup safety at best. Receiver took a hit with the loss of Randle El but there aren't many top FA wideouts available. Pittsburgh just doesn't throw money at other team's free agents very often and look for them to be bargain shoppers after June 1. WR has emerged as one of the team's top needs after the loss of Randle El. With the 32nd pick the team could find a wideout but this isn't a deep draft for receivers. RB is also a need as Bettis has retired, Parker has started only one season and RB Duce Staley can't stay healthy. Expect the Steelers to draft a big RB in the early to mid rounds. A FS is also needed as a potential starter isn't on the roster. Some LB depth would be nice and the Steelers are famous for finding great LB value later in the draft. Pittsburgh has remained competitive despite losing FAs every year because they draft so well. Only one of their picks in the last 4 years is out of the NFL.
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posted by adairk at
3:52 p.m.
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Friday, April 14, 2006
Sports Betting
MLB Baseball Betting
Sharp handicappers have Tribe, Brewers, Rockies rolling
Finally, the gates are open and they're off and running. Major League Baseball opened its regular season last week, and baseball handicappers across the land began engaging in the art of picking hardball games against the dime-line. The Cleveland Indians were expected to be good this season, and perhaps challenge for a wild-card spot in the American League. Not many gave them much of a chance, however, to unseat the defending AL Central and World Series champion White Sox. But the Tribe, after losing its season opener, won six games in a row, including four straight at home, to grab first place in the Central. Travis Hafner leads this bunch offensively, slugging five home runs already. Cleveland as a team is hitting .324, and averaging six runs per game. And opponents are hitting just .208 vs. Indians pitching. The over is 4-3 so far in Cleveland games. Not all the news concerning the Indians is great. The bullpen owns an ERA of 4.56, and a 15/17 bases on balls-to-strikeout ratio. And Cleveland placed starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia on the disabled list with an abdominal injury. He's eligible to come off the list next Tuesday. Next up for the Tribe, beginning Friday, is a 10-game road trip with stops in Detroit, Baltimore and Kansas City. Baseball buffs and dime-line handicappers know that the Milwaukee Brewers have a nice collection of young talent, both at the plate and on the mound. Last year, the Brewers had their first non-losing season since Robin Yount roamed the outfield. This season, a run at the National League wild card isn't out of the question. Those hopes got off to a nice start when Milwaukee won its first five games of the season last week. The Brewers are only averaging 3.9 runs per game, but Milwaukee pitching has held opponents to a .211 batting average and a .296 OBP. Closer Derrick Turnbow is perfect, with four saves in four chances, although he's made a couple of them a little more exciting than Brewer backers would hope. Milwaukee is expecting rookie Prince Fielder to anchor the infield and the heart of the lineup. And although he's off to a cold start (.269, one HR, nine Ks), Fielder is just too good a hitter to remain stymied. The Brewer defense has played a key part in the early success by turning 12 double plays already. The combination of good pitching and defense resulted in five of Milwaukee's first seven games staying under the posted totals. Also, the Brewers may get starting pitcher Ben Sheets back in the rotation as early as this weekend. Sheets, hobbled by a back injury in spring training, threw a solid rehab stint at AAA Nashville Tuesday, allowing three hits and no runs while striking out nine in 5 2/3 innings. Up next for the Brewers, beginning Friday, are three games in New York vs. the Mets, and three games at division-rival Houston. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the early season has been the Colorado Rockies, who lead the NL West. Colorado lost two of three to Arizona to begin the season, then won five in a row, including four straight on the road. The Rockies are hitting .303 as a team and averaging 6.9 runs per game. They've also hit 11 homers already, although their 25/66 bases on balls-strikeout ratio isn't the greatest. The over went 3-3 in Colorado's first six games. The first three games of the season in Denver were decided by scores of 3-2, 4-2, and 12-5. The Rockies begin a nine-game homestand Friday, beginning with three games vs. Philadelphia, followed by three games each with divisional foes San Diego and San Francisco.
http://www.sport-betting-links.com
Sharp handicappers have Tribe, Brewers, Rockies rolling
Finally, the gates are open and they're off and running. Major League Baseball opened its regular season last week, and baseball handicappers across the land began engaging in the art of picking hardball games against the dime-line. The Cleveland Indians were expected to be good this season, and perhaps challenge for a wild-card spot in the American League. Not many gave them much of a chance, however, to unseat the defending AL Central and World Series champion White Sox. But the Tribe, after losing its season opener, won six games in a row, including four straight at home, to grab first place in the Central. Travis Hafner leads this bunch offensively, slugging five home runs already. Cleveland as a team is hitting .324, and averaging six runs per game. And opponents are hitting just .208 vs. Indians pitching. The over is 4-3 so far in Cleveland games. Not all the news concerning the Indians is great. The bullpen owns an ERA of 4.56, and a 15/17 bases on balls-to-strikeout ratio. And Cleveland placed starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia on the disabled list with an abdominal injury. He's eligible to come off the list next Tuesday. Next up for the Tribe, beginning Friday, is a 10-game road trip with stops in Detroit, Baltimore and Kansas City. Baseball buffs and dime-line handicappers know that the Milwaukee Brewers have a nice collection of young talent, both at the plate and on the mound. Last year, the Brewers had their first non-losing season since Robin Yount roamed the outfield. This season, a run at the National League wild card isn't out of the question. Those hopes got off to a nice start when Milwaukee won its first five games of the season last week. The Brewers are only averaging 3.9 runs per game, but Milwaukee pitching has held opponents to a .211 batting average and a .296 OBP. Closer Derrick Turnbow is perfect, with four saves in four chances, although he's made a couple of them a little more exciting than Brewer backers would hope. Milwaukee is expecting rookie Prince Fielder to anchor the infield and the heart of the lineup. And although he's off to a cold start (.269, one HR, nine Ks), Fielder is just too good a hitter to remain stymied. The Brewer defense has played a key part in the early success by turning 12 double plays already. The combination of good pitching and defense resulted in five of Milwaukee's first seven games staying under the posted totals. Also, the Brewers may get starting pitcher Ben Sheets back in the rotation as early as this weekend. Sheets, hobbled by a back injury in spring training, threw a solid rehab stint at AAA Nashville Tuesday, allowing three hits and no runs while striking out nine in 5 2/3 innings. Up next for the Brewers, beginning Friday, are three games in New York vs. the Mets, and three games at division-rival Houston. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the early season has been the Colorado Rockies, who lead the NL West. Colorado lost two of three to Arizona to begin the season, then won five in a row, including four straight on the road. The Rockies are hitting .303 as a team and averaging 6.9 runs per game. They've also hit 11 homers already, although their 25/66 bases on balls-strikeout ratio isn't the greatest. The over went 3-3 in Colorado's first six games. The first three games of the season in Denver were decided by scores of 3-2, 4-2, and 12-5. The Rockies begin a nine-game homestand Friday, beginning with three games vs. Philadelphia, followed by three games each with divisional foes San Diego and San Francisco.
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posted by adairk at
11:15 a.m.
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Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Sports Betting
The Derby Pool 3 Odds Have Been ReleasedBrother Derek emerged as the favorite for horse players when the betting closed on Sunday in the third and final pool of Churchill Downs' 2006 Kentucky Derby Future Wager. With the 132nd running of the Derby set to go off May 6, the California-bred son of Benchmark closed as the 5-1 favorite among the 23 wagering interests in Pool 3. Owned by Cecil Peacock, trained by Dan Hendricks and ridden by Alex Solis, Brother Derek is coming off his fourth straight stakes victory in the form of a dominant romp in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1). Notably, Brother Derek also emerged as the 10-1 favorite at the close of Pool 2. There are several other horses hot on the heels of the favorite though, if you're looking to place a bet with the possibility of a higher payoff. Lawyer Ron followed at 8-1 odds, plummeting from 17-1 at the close of Pool 2, and is the likely favorite in the upcoming 70th running of the Arkansas Derby. Lawyer Ron has won five straight races. Unbeaten Florida Derby winner Barbaro follows at 9-1, down significantly from his 15-1 odds at the close of Pool 2. The talented 3-year-old is enjoying a five-week break prior to the Run for the Roses. A bit of a wild card and yet solidly rated at 9-1 odds in Pool 3, Discreet Cat will be shipped over from Dubai prior to Derby Day. Discreet Cat is also unbeaten and will arrive as the easy winner of the UAE Derby as a new wagering interest in Pool 3. Sweetnorthernsaint rounds out the top betting options at 10-1 odds out of Pool 3. Coming out of Pool 2 rated at a distant 30-1 for the Derby, Sweetnorthernsaint saw his odds plummet following his romp in the Illinois Derby (GII) on Saturday. Other betting interests with solid support in Pool 3 include Point Determined at 13-1 (29-1 in Pool 2), First Samurai also at 13-1 (16-1 in Pool 2), as well as Bob and John, a third entry rated at 13-1 (19-1 in Pool 2). Bluegrass Cat is at 15-1 after closing out Pool 2 at 11-1. The mutuel field, which includes all 3-year-olds other than the individual horses listed in each pool, had closed as the 3-1 favorite in both the opening pool in late January and Pool 2, which was conducted in early March. In Pool 3, the "all others" wager closed at odds of 15-1.
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posted by adairk at
6:39 p.m.
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Monday, April 10, 2006
Sports Betting
NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC South
Houston Texans The Texans thought they were ready to make a big leap in 2005 after winning 5, 6 and 7 games in their first 3 seasons. They made a lot of personnel changes on defense and altered the offensive game plan. The results proved disastrous as the team limped home with a 2-14 record. They lost 8 games by 10+ points but were relatively competitive in the final 6 weeks. Houston couldn't do anything right on offense, ranking 30th overall, 30th in passing, 26th in scoring, 32nd in sack pct. allowed and 31st in yards-per-play. QB David Carr was again running for his life and wasn't very effective when he did have time. RB Davis ran for 976 yards but WR Andre Johnson was slowed by injury and the lack of a credible threat on the other side. The defense was even worse, ranking 31st overall, 32nd vs. the run, 32st in yards-per-play allowed, 31st in interception pct., 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in opponents first downs. HC Dom Capers was fired at season's end and offensive guru Gary Kubiak was brought in to right a badly listing ship. He does have some players to work with. Rookie KR Jerome Mathis made the Pro Bowl and should help Houston in the field position battle. OLB Shantee Orr stepped in and led the team with 7 sacks. Houston will shift to a 4-3 and that means several personnel moves are in the offing. The Texans have some money to spend in FA but have gone the conservative route. They dumped a lot of players to give themselves more economic flexibility. Gone are QB Tony Banks, CB Jason Bell (NYG), WR Corey Bradford (DET), G Milford Brown (ARI), S Marcus Coleman, WR Jabar Gaffney (PHI), RB Tony Hollings and DE Gary Walker. So far they have added FB Jameel Cook (TB), MLB Sam Cowart (MIN), C Mike Flanagan (GB), TE Jeb Putzier (DEN), QB Sage Rosenfels (MIA), WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver (BAL). These moves look to even themselves out as they didn't lose a star player or sign one. They still have about 6-7 FAs of their own they may resign but don't look for them to bring many of those players back. With the shift to the 4-3, more DL and LBs are needed. Expect the team to bring in a few more veterans for the front seven. The O-line, a work-in-progress since the franchise was born, could also use veteran help. With the first overall selection in the draft the Texans could go any number of ways. The fact they seem to be committed to Carr means that Matt Leinart and Vince Young probably won't be the pick. LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson makes a lot of sense and he'd give the O-line it has lacked since the team's inception. They likely will select RB Reggie Bush and hope his big-play ability rejuvenates the offense. Despite the addition of Weaver, DE remains a big need. The Texans never generated pressure on opposing QBs out of their 3-4 and will need rush ends to get to the QB. The signing of Putzier alleviates some of the woes at TE. Former 2nd rounder Bennie Joppru has missed 3 seasons due to injury. Guard also remains a trouble spot as does LT. WR is a pressing need and could be addressed as early as the 2nd round. Johnson needs a partner to take the pressure off on the other side. The Texans would probably be best-served to trade down but they will probably stay put and select Bush. HOU added WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver - Weaver gives the Texans a solid end who can play in the 4-3 or 3-4. Look for him to start at LE. Indianapolis Colts Indy entered 2005 on a mission to get home field advantage and finally reach the Super Bowl. They reached half of their goals. They sped out to a 13-0 mark before finishing 14-2 and looked to be a good bet to reach the Bowl. They even blasted the Patriots, their nemesis, 40-21 on a Monday night in Foxboro. A 21-18 loss to the Steelers in the divisional round meant another early exit from the playoffs and more soul searching for this underachieving group. The offense was led by RB Edgerrin James, as he finished 2nd in the AFC with 1,506 yards. He also scored 13 TDs and contributed 44 catches. QB Peyton Manning was excellent again, leading the NFL in QB rating. The defense was vastly improved, finishing 11th overall and 2nd in sack pct. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis combined for 22 ½ sacks and terrorized QBs all season. WLB Cato June emerged as a force and made the Pro Bowl. The defense softened down the stretch and couldn't get the big stops toward the end of the year. While it was another great regular season in Indy, another playoff loss really hurt the players and front office types. Don't expect wholesale changes but look for some added tweaking. The Colts have a lot of free agents but limited cap space. James left early for the riches in Arizona and his 2 backups remain unsigned. Starting SLB David Thornton left for Tennessee, the 3rd starting OLB to leave in 3 years. DTs Larry Triplett (BUF) and Josh Williams are also gone. PK Mike Vanderjagt left for Dallas but was replaced by Adam Vinatieri (NE). That signing really helps the Colts and hurts the Patriots. As of this writing, the Colts had at least 10 solid contributors from last year unsigned. They re-upped WR Reggie Wayne but still have players like June, Mathis and MLB Gary Brackett to sign. The Colts won't sign many players from other teams this offseason and will focus almost entirely on their own players. The draft will be used to address needs that the team can't fix with free agents. A starting RB must be found and GM Bill Polian would like one who is stronger in the red zone. Look for Indy to address this need with one of their first two picks. OLB has depth on the team but no obvious candidate to replace Thornton. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so the Colts may wait a round or two to address it. Guard was a spot that was exposed later in the year, especially in pass blocking. A player capable of starting now would help. FS Mike Doss is more of a SS and a free safety with better range would be welcome. A large run-stuffing DT is always welcome and is a position the team has yet to fill despite repeated attempts. Jacksonville Jaguars There are two different ways to look at the Jaguars season. First, they won 12 games and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and that shows they are making good progress. Second, they had a very soft schedule and were blasted by a much-better team (Patriots) in the playoffs. They probably fall somewhere in the middle. The schedule was soft but they did beat Cincinnati, Seattle and Pittsburgh. They also lost to Indy by 7 and 8 points. Despite injuries in the backfield (QB Byron Leftwich, RBs Fred Taylor and Greg Jones), the offense ranked 15th overall and 10th in rushing.QB David Garrard proved a capable fill-in for Leftwich. The defense ranked 6th overall, including 1st in sack pct. FA DE Reggie Hayward led the way with 8 ½ sacks and DE Paul Spicer had 7 ½. Jacksonville HC Jack Del Rio wants the offense to be a power-running team but injuries and some bad fits have prevented that. The team used another 1st-round pick on a wideout, converted QB Matt Jones, with mixed results. 2004 1st-rounder Reggie Williams continued to struggle and 2004 4th-rounder Ernest Wilford outperformed both of them. Jacksonville is in good shape with the salary cap but have a lot of free agents. OLB Akin Ayodele had a poor season and was allowed to sign with Dallas. Backup LB Tracy White signed with GB. The Jags signed CB Brian Williams (MIN) and expect him to start at corner. OTs Stockar McDougle (MIA) and Mike Williams (BUF) are backup types who could compete at guard. Look for the Jaguars to try and sign at least 1 veteran OLB before the draft. Jacksonville picks 28th and have many needs to address. As mentioned above, OLB remains a key spot. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so expect the Jags to grab 1 or 2 players. Guard is another spot that could use an upgrade. The team has Kyle Brady at TE but he is just a glorified OT. They could use a receiving threat to open up the middle and give Leftwich a big target down the seam. The signing of Williams helps but the team could use a speedy young corner still. RB is a spot that doesn't appear weak but don't be surprised if the team drafts a bruising back in the later rounds. Tennessee Titans The Titans had to contend with huge player defections for the 3rd-straight season and fell to 4-12. All 4 wins were against weaker teams and they were crushed in their 4 games vs. the Colts and Jaguars. QB Steve McNair seems far removed from his 2003 co-MVP performance. He was relatively healthy but has aged quickly. The team struggled all season on offense, especially 3rd downs (26th in conversions). The running game wasn't a factor and WR Drew Bennett missed a lot of time due to injury. The TEs (Erron Kinney, Ben Troupe and rookie Bo Scaife) were very productive but a lot of that had to do with the receivers inability to get open and breakdowns in pass protection. The defense was gouged a lot but did pressure the QB well (FA DE Kyle Vanden Bosch contributed 12 ½ sacks and 4 forced fumbles). OLB Keith Bulluck had another big year but the young secondary gave up too many big plays. The Titans were one of the youngest teams in NFL history last season and figure to get better. This year won't see the mass defections of '03, '04 and '05 but some players have moved on. SS Tank Williams (MIN), LB Rocky Boiman (DAL), C Justin Hartwig (CAR) and LT Brad Hopkins all left. Tennessee finally has some cash to spend and have made some noise early in free agency. WR David Givens (NE) was brought in to be a No.1 receiver but that could be a stretch. OLB David Thornton (IND) will start and give the Titans a good set of outside 'backers. FS Chris Hope will help solidify the secondary and C Kevin Mawae, though aging, should help the O-line. With such a young team, expect the Titans to sign more veterans in the coming weeks. The Titans are in a very enviable position in the draft. They draft 3rd and have a keen interest in 4 players. RB Reggie Bush would give them an explosive presence in the backfield but he'll likely be gone. QBs Matt Leinart and Vince Young could learn behind McNair for a year or two and then start. Or LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson could come in and anchor the line for the next 10 years. All 4 players would help the Titans. Young already has a relationship with McNair and would seem like a good fit. MLB is a pressing need and will be addressed on Day 1 if a quality veteran isn't signed. WR is another area that might get a boost but the team drafted 3 players last season. Safety depth and perhaps a RB could be added in the later rounds. More players for the O-line will also get some attention in this draft.
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NFL Offseason Report - AFC South
Houston Texans The Texans thought they were ready to make a big leap in 2005 after winning 5, 6 and 7 games in their first 3 seasons. They made a lot of personnel changes on defense and altered the offensive game plan. The results proved disastrous as the team limped home with a 2-14 record. They lost 8 games by 10+ points but were relatively competitive in the final 6 weeks. Houston couldn't do anything right on offense, ranking 30th overall, 30th in passing, 26th in scoring, 32nd in sack pct. allowed and 31st in yards-per-play. QB David Carr was again running for his life and wasn't very effective when he did have time. RB Davis ran for 976 yards but WR Andre Johnson was slowed by injury and the lack of a credible threat on the other side. The defense was even worse, ranking 31st overall, 32nd vs. the run, 32st in yards-per-play allowed, 31st in interception pct., 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in opponents first downs. HC Dom Capers was fired at season's end and offensive guru Gary Kubiak was brought in to right a badly listing ship. He does have some players to work with. Rookie KR Jerome Mathis made the Pro Bowl and should help Houston in the field position battle. OLB Shantee Orr stepped in and led the team with 7 sacks. Houston will shift to a 4-3 and that means several personnel moves are in the offing. The Texans have some money to spend in FA but have gone the conservative route. They dumped a lot of players to give themselves more economic flexibility. Gone are QB Tony Banks, CB Jason Bell (NYG), WR Corey Bradford (DET), G Milford Brown (ARI), S Marcus Coleman, WR Jabar Gaffney (PHI), RB Tony Hollings and DE Gary Walker. So far they have added FB Jameel Cook (TB), MLB Sam Cowart (MIN), C Mike Flanagan (GB), TE Jeb Putzier (DEN), QB Sage Rosenfels (MIA), WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver (BAL). These moves look to even themselves out as they didn't lose a star player or sign one. They still have about 6-7 FAs of their own they may resign but don't look for them to bring many of those players back. With the shift to the 4-3, more DL and LBs are needed. Expect the team to bring in a few more veterans for the front seven. The O-line, a work-in-progress since the franchise was born, could also use veteran help. With the first overall selection in the draft the Texans could go any number of ways. The fact they seem to be committed to Carr means that Matt Leinart and Vince Young probably won't be the pick. LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson makes a lot of sense and he'd give the O-line it has lacked since the team's inception. They likely will select RB Reggie Bush and hope his big-play ability rejuvenates the offense. Despite the addition of Weaver, DE remains a big need. The Texans never generated pressure on opposing QBs out of their 3-4 and will need rush ends to get to the QB. The signing of Putzier alleviates some of the woes at TE. Former 2nd rounder Bennie Joppru has missed 3 seasons due to injury. Guard also remains a trouble spot as does LT. WR is a pressing need and could be addressed as early as the 2nd round. Johnson needs a partner to take the pressure off on the other side. The Texans would probably be best-served to trade down but they will probably stay put and select Bush. HOU added WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver - Weaver gives the Texans a solid end who can play in the 4-3 or 3-4. Look for him to start at LE. Indianapolis Colts Indy entered 2005 on a mission to get home field advantage and finally reach the Super Bowl. They reached half of their goals. They sped out to a 13-0 mark before finishing 14-2 and looked to be a good bet to reach the Bowl. They even blasted the Patriots, their nemesis, 40-21 on a Monday night in Foxboro. A 21-18 loss to the Steelers in the divisional round meant another early exit from the playoffs and more soul searching for this underachieving group. The offense was led by RB Edgerrin James, as he finished 2nd in the AFC with 1,506 yards. He also scored 13 TDs and contributed 44 catches. QB Peyton Manning was excellent again, leading the NFL in QB rating. The defense was vastly improved, finishing 11th overall and 2nd in sack pct. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis combined for 22 ½ sacks and terrorized QBs all season. WLB Cato June emerged as a force and made the Pro Bowl. The defense softened down the stretch and couldn't get the big stops toward the end of the year. While it was another great regular season in Indy, another playoff loss really hurt the players and front office types. Don't expect wholesale changes but look for some added tweaking. The Colts have a lot of free agents but limited cap space. James left early for the riches in Arizona and his 2 backups remain unsigned. Starting SLB David Thornton left for Tennessee, the 3rd starting OLB to leave in 3 years. DTs Larry Triplett (BUF) and Josh Williams are also gone. PK Mike Vanderjagt left for Dallas but was replaced by Adam Vinatieri (NE). That signing really helps the Colts and hurts the Patriots. As of this writing, the Colts had at least 10 solid contributors from last year unsigned. They re-upped WR Reggie Wayne but still have players like June, Mathis and MLB Gary Brackett to sign. The Colts won't sign many players from other teams this offseason and will focus almost entirely on their own players. The draft will be used to address needs that the team can't fix with free agents. A starting RB must be found and GM Bill Polian would like one who is stronger in the red zone. Look for Indy to address this need with one of their first two picks. OLB has depth on the team but no obvious candidate to replace Thornton. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so the Colts may wait a round or two to address it. Guard was a spot that was exposed later in the year, especially in pass blocking. A player capable of starting now would help. FS Mike Doss is more of a SS and a free safety with better range would be welcome. A large run-stuffing DT is always welcome and is a position the team has yet to fill despite repeated attempts. Jacksonville Jaguars There are two different ways to look at the Jaguars season. First, they won 12 games and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and that shows they are making good progress. Second, they had a very soft schedule and were blasted by a much-better team (Patriots) in the playoffs. They probably fall somewhere in the middle. The schedule was soft but they did beat Cincinnati, Seattle and Pittsburgh. They also lost to Indy by 7 and 8 points. Despite injuries in the backfield (QB Byron Leftwich, RBs Fred Taylor and Greg Jones), the offense ranked 15th overall and 10th in rushing.QB David Garrard proved a capable fill-in for Leftwich. The defense ranked 6th overall, including 1st in sack pct. FA DE Reggie Hayward led the way with 8 ½ sacks and DE Paul Spicer had 7 ½. Jacksonville HC Jack Del Rio wants the offense to be a power-running team but injuries and some bad fits have prevented that. The team used another 1st-round pick on a wideout, converted QB Matt Jones, with mixed results. 2004 1st-rounder Reggie Williams continued to struggle and 2004 4th-rounder Ernest Wilford outperformed both of them. Jacksonville is in good shape with the salary cap but have a lot of free agents. OLB Akin Ayodele had a poor season and was allowed to sign with Dallas. Backup LB Tracy White signed with GB. The Jags signed CB Brian Williams (MIN) and expect him to start at corner. OTs Stockar McDougle (MIA) and Mike Williams (BUF) are backup types who could compete at guard. Look for the Jaguars to try and sign at least 1 veteran OLB before the draft. Jacksonville picks 28th and have many needs to address. As mentioned above, OLB remains a key spot. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so expect the Jags to grab 1 or 2 players. Guard is another spot that could use an upgrade. The team has Kyle Brady at TE but he is just a glorified OT. They could use a receiving threat to open up the middle and give Leftwich a big target down the seam. The signing of Williams helps but the team could use a speedy young corner still. RB is a spot that doesn't appear weak but don't be surprised if the team drafts a bruising back in the later rounds. Tennessee Titans The Titans had to contend with huge player defections for the 3rd-straight season and fell to 4-12. All 4 wins were against weaker teams and they were crushed in their 4 games vs. the Colts and Jaguars. QB Steve McNair seems far removed from his 2003 co-MVP performance. He was relatively healthy but has aged quickly. The team struggled all season on offense, especially 3rd downs (26th in conversions). The running game wasn't a factor and WR Drew Bennett missed a lot of time due to injury. The TEs (Erron Kinney, Ben Troupe and rookie Bo Scaife) were very productive but a lot of that had to do with the receivers inability to get open and breakdowns in pass protection. The defense was gouged a lot but did pressure the QB well (FA DE Kyle Vanden Bosch contributed 12 ½ sacks and 4 forced fumbles). OLB Keith Bulluck had another big year but the young secondary gave up too many big plays. The Titans were one of the youngest teams in NFL history last season and figure to get better. This year won't see the mass defections of '03, '04 and '05 but some players have moved on. SS Tank Williams (MIN), LB Rocky Boiman (DAL), C Justin Hartwig (CAR) and LT Brad Hopkins all left. Tennessee finally has some cash to spend and have made some noise early in free agency. WR David Givens (NE) was brought in to be a No.1 receiver but that could be a stretch. OLB David Thornton (IND) will start and give the Titans a good set of outside 'backers. FS Chris Hope will help solidify the secondary and C Kevin Mawae, though aging, should help the O-line. With such a young team, expect the Titans to sign more veterans in the coming weeks. The Titans are in a very enviable position in the draft. They draft 3rd and have a keen interest in 4 players. RB Reggie Bush would give them an explosive presence in the backfield but he'll likely be gone. QBs Matt Leinart and Vince Young could learn behind McNair for a year or two and then start. Or LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson could come in and anchor the line for the next 10 years. All 4 players would help the Titans. Young already has a relationship with McNair and would seem like a good fit. MLB is a pressing need and will be addressed on Day 1 if a quality veteran isn't signed. WR is another area that might get a boost but the team drafted 3 players last season. Safety depth and perhaps a RB could be added in the later rounds. More players for the O-line will also get some attention in this draft.
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