Sports Betting

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Sports Betting

Of seven coaches hired since the regular season ended, the only one with previous head-coaching experience is Herman Edwards of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Edwards scenario is confusing to say the least, as it almost looks like the Jets were happy to get rid of the stoic coach, considering that they settled for a fourth round draft pick as compensation.
The Chiefs have sad the best offense in football since 2001 and it is the defense that has been the Achilles heel. So what does Herm do? He allows the architect of that league leading offense, to flee to the Washington Redskins and what kind of message does this send to Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Willie Roaf, Tony Gonzalez and the rest of the all pro offensive machine?
Edwards if you recall is a disciple of Tony Dunge and after the Colt’s performance in the Super Bowl there are whispers abound about Tony’s capabilities, to get a team to the top of the mountain. It was Dunge who was fired in Tampa, for his failure to win a big playoff game and in stepped John Gruden, who proceeded to win a Super Bowl.

He then moved on to Indy where it was hoped that he would improve a brutal defense, considering they already have a top notch offensive system. This year they began 13-0, but when push came to shove, their offense deteriorated and the defense was counterfeit.
New Orleans has decided to hire Payton, a Cowboys assistant the past three seasons, has his first head coaching job with a team that won three games last season and played all its contests on the road because of Hurricane Katrina. In Dallas, the 42-year-old Payton worked with quarterbacks and also held the title of assistant head coach. Before that, he was a New York Giants assistant, a stint that included that team's NFC championship in 2000.
Payton succeeds Jim Haslett, whose tenure lasted six years. The Saints went 3-13 in 2005, but were a .500 team during Haslett's first five seasons combined. Let’s face it folks, the Saints have looked at former Parcells assistants like Bill Bellichick, John Fox, Charlie Weiss and decided maybe his magic rubbed off on Payton.
The Detroit Lions have been a mess for a long time and many contribute the lack of success to Matt Millen the president and former Fox analyst. After trying two offensive minded coaches in Marty Mornhinweg and Steve Maraucci, Millen decided to hire Ron Marinelli who is a Vietnam vet butt kicker, with no head coaching experience.
The Rams are a mess on defense, yet they chose to go the offensive route again by hiring Brian Linehan to replace Mike Martz. Linehan has been an offensive whiz in Minnesota, Miami and in college at Louisville. Last season, the Dolphins improved from 29th in total offense to 14th, and went from 31st in rushing to 12th. Linehan shuffled Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown successfully at running back, and coaxed a career-high 18 touchdown passes from Gus Frerotte.
Also, wide receiver Chris Chambers had his best season and was picked for the Pro Bowl for the first time.
The New York Jets robbed the cradle with the hiring of 34-year old Eric Mangini who toiled under Bill Bellichick’s tutelage the past few years. Mangini took over for the Patriots defense for departed Romeo Crennel who is now running the show in Cleveland. The Jets like what Crennel has done with the Browns and Charlie Weiss with Notre Dame and hope Mangini is cut from the same cloth.
The Packers hired Mike McCarthy a former Packers quarterback coach and this one has me shaking my head. Green Bay needs a ton of help on defense and I guess they hope that McCarthy can make first round pick Aaron Rogers into a superstar.
I think we all have seen in whatever organization that we have worked in our lives, that some people are great department heads and are a vital part of the ultimate success of the company. But if you try and make this person the HEAD HONCHO, he just cannot handle the pressure and responsibilities that come with the title.
Several of these candidates are going to fail miserably!
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Friday, January 20, 2006

Sports Betting

When teams get a shot at going to the Super Bowl it is very important that they take advantage of the opportunity as sometimes it is a long time between sips shall we say. Back in Super Bowl XV11 in 1983 the Dolphins lost to the Redskins and their starting quarterback was no-name David Woodley. He was 4-14 for a pathetic 81 yards of net passing and needless to say they lost.
In 1985 Super Bowl X1X Dan Marino barely legal drinking age, took his explosive offensive machine to the big game for what was to be the first of many experiences. It ended up being his last and they were crushed 38-16 by San Francisco. While Marino would set all kinds of records and end up in the Hall of Fame, Marino never made it back to the dance.
This Sunday Steelers coach Bill Cowher will try and advance to Detroit with a victory over the Broncos and while he has won many games with Pittsburgh, the last Super Bowl he coached in was 1995 and Cowher, whose team is the first No. 6 seed to reach a league championship game, is trying to become the first since the 1985 Patriots to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl.
Speaking of the Broncos they won back to back titles in 1998 and 1999 and then John Elway decided to go mountain climbing. Since then they have struggled to find the right formula and they just might do it with underrated Jake Plummer at the helm.

The Steelers put constant pressure on Manning and sacked him five times. In the first two rounds, Pittsburgh has held the AFC's top scoring teams, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, to 17 and 18 points, but Plummer is not a statue like Plummer, so don’t expect the same result.
Sunday's victory gave Pittsburgh five consecutive victories over Indianapolis in the postseason, but the Steelers will be facing a Denver club that has won 11 in a row at Invesco Field at Mile High, is 4-0 in AFC title games at home and is coming off a 27-13 victory over two-time defending champion New England last week.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are 1-4 in league championship games under Cowher, and they'll face a Denver team that's equally motivated to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998.
Denver has won three of the five postseason matchups with Pittsburgh and two of the three playoff meetings at Mile High. The Broncos won the last meeting 24-21 at Denver in the AFC title game on Jan. 11, 1998.
Roethlisberger is 13-1 on the road in his career, including the playoffs. ... Pittsburgh allowed only eight TDs on the road during the regular season, fewest in the NFL. ... Roethlisberger is the first QB since 1970 to start back-to-back league championship games in his first two seasons. Broncos - Plummer has the second-highest postseason completion percentage (62.3) among active players with at least 100 attempts. ... Denver's defense has allowed only 50 points during the team's current five-game winning streak. ... WR Smith has a TD catch in each of his last three postseason games and three TDs in three career games against the Steelers, including the playoffs.
ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Steelers - 8-2 on the road; Broncos - 9-0 at home.
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Thursday, January 19, 2006

Sports Betting

With Tom Terrific Brady out of the mix this weekend and his czar coach Bill Bellichick watching from his living room, who will step up and make a name for himself this weekend.
As we glance through the four remaining teams rosters and look at some of the impact positions and who are playing there, chances are unless your team is one of the four remaining, you are not too familiar with these guys.
Jake Delhomme is the quarterback for the Carolina Panthers and is in his seventh year in the NFL and was not even drafted by a team when he left Louisiana-Lafayette. Delhomme is an adequate regular-season performer with a nose for the playoffs.
He's 5-1 in six postseason starts, the sole loss coming against Brady in the Super Bowl, and his quarterback rating is a revealing 24 points better in the playoffs. He may need every one of them, though, after losing tailback DeShaun Foster to a broken ankle suffered in Sunday's road win over the Chicago Bears.

If Seattle is able to shutdown superstar Steve Smith, then the Panthers will look to another undrafted player in runningback Nick Goings. Goings begun his college career at Ohio State and then transferred to Pittsburgh. Last year he began the season as the 5th string back and now is just one game away from the dance.
In Seattle the talk always centers around all-world back Shaun Alexander and the great Seahawks offensive line. Lost is all the accolades being shelled out is quarterback Matt Hasselback, who last week took Seattle on his back and his outstanding performance, has them in the championship game this week.
In Pittsburgh the buzz is directed towards the “Bus� Jerrome Bettis, but leave it up to second year quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to save Bettis’s hide last week, with that game saving tackle on Indy’s Nick Harper. If Big Ben goes down, the Steelers are toast and their feature back is now Willie Parker, another non drafted player, who brings speed to the table.
In Denver the focus of the attention seems to be heaped on coach Mike Shanahan and the offensive line of the Broncos. Most folks just seem to be waiting for Jake the Snake Plummer to fail and maybe they and the rest of the NFL should accept that this guy can play the game. While he certainly wasn’t outstanding last Saturday night against the Patriots, he did manage the game far better then superstar Tom Brady.
It has been a wild and wacky NFL season and don’t be surprised if a couple of lesser known players, play pivotal roles this Sunday.
We like Carolina to upset Seattle. We like Denver to cover vs. Pittsburgh. Nasty home field advantage there and possible letdown spot for the Steelers!
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Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Sports Betting

Officiating can be a factor that makes handicapping games that much more difficult and last weekend witnessed some of the most questionable NFL officiating ever seen. No matter how much time you spend analyzing a match-up, a judgment call can be the ultimate decider of who wins and who loses. Losing bettors and fans remember these calls for a very long time… The officiating last weekend was so bad that the NFL admitted making a mistake when Troy Polamalu’s diving interception in the fourth quarter was overturned. Fortunately, that mistake had no effect on the overall outcome of the game. However, for those players that bet on the second half, it was a different story. Pittsburgh backers took the Steelers +7.5 for the second half. After the interception reversal, the Colts scored a TD followed by a 2-point conversion on the drive. Without that score, Indianapolis -7.5 would not have covered and Steelers bettors would have won the money. Earlier in the same game, the Steelers were facing fourth and inches when two Colts charged across the line of scrimmage and pointed at a Steeler lineman. Play was halted and no penalty called although there should have been a call for either a false-start or off-sides. The New England-Denver game also had a number of questionable calls appearing to favor the home team. In the first quarter, Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel was called for pass interference, advancing the Broncos 39 yards to the 1-yard line for an eventual score. Replay showed that Samuel had position and made very little contact with Denver receiver Ashley Lelie on the play. Later in the game, Denver’s Champ Bailey intercepted a pass in the end-zone and nearly returned it for a touchdown before he was hit and fumbled out of bounds. The officials ruled it remained Denver’s ball although it appeared that the ball went out of bounds in the end-zone, and New England should have regained possession at their own 20 yard-line via a touchback. Let’s hope things are better this weekend as there are now just three more competitive games before the curtain comes down on the NFL this season. Although these are clearly the biggest games of the year, it’s wise to stay focused on your money management. There’s always a temptation to bet more, but these games should be treated no differently than any other from a handicapper’s perspective. Resist the temptation to bet more on a side or total simply because the season is coming to an end. It’s all about winning and you could potentially find more value to justify a stronger play on Sunday’s Niagara-St. Peter’s NCAA match-up for instance, than betting the house on the AFC Championship game. If you find props or other bets you like, spread your money out as you normally would, but don’t throw it all on one side bet. Too many factors (or even referee calls) can go wrong in one game to justify overextending yourself. Before making your plays this weekend, remember that there’s a limited time between the AFC and NFC Championship games to get your bets in - typically, just 15 minutes or less. With all the viewers of the AFC title game running to their computers to get action on the Panthers-Seahawks game, there is an annual 15-minute period that’s traditionally the most intense time of the year for online sports books. From past experience, many sports books will unfortunately not be able to handle the stress this puts on their Web servers and database. Websites may be slow or worse still, they might be down altogether as their servers buckle under the load. If you want to get action on the NFC title game at a sports book other than Pinnacle Sports, consider making your plays well before the Pittsburgh-Denver game ends. If you fail to get your bets in before the game kicks off in Seattle, you still have another option - live betting at Pinnacle Sports. The Pinnacle Sports book is known for outstanding value on sides and totals, and our live lines are no different. For in-running betting throughout the game, we use a -108 style pricing model, which still offers better value than the normal price offered by other sportsbooks before the game kicks off. If you like to get your plays in early, you can benefit even more from Pinnacle Sportsbook’s reduced margin wagering, which uses a -104 pricing model that gives bettors up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other bookmakers. If you haven’t placed your wagers yet, you might want to consider who the sharps and public like this weekend: Pittsburgh (+3 +106) at Denver O/U 41The Steelers have impressed, winning two straight playoff road games over the Bengals and the Colts. Pittsburgh has made it this far by utilizing a strategy similar to Denver’s – running the ball and defending the run first. Denver and Pittsburgh had the second and fifth-ranked rushing attacks respectively in the NFL and on run-defense, they ranked #2 and #3. Featuring the run has helped both teams reduce turnovers as sacks and turnovers happen with far more frequency when teams are forced to pass. By focusing on the run and rush defense, both teams have avoided interceptions and get more opportunities to pressure opposing teams’ quarterbacks. We’ve seen heavy volume on this game after opening the spread with the Steelers at +3 (-116). The public clearly favors the Steelers, placing five bets on Pittsburgh for every two on the Broncos. The sharps are betting this game also, but they’re split on the game. After opening the total at 42.5 we have seen a classic, sharp versus public duel. The sharps are mostly on the under, while a majority of the bets placed have been on the over. As is often the case, the wise guys have been placing bigger wagers and despite the larger bet count on the over from the public, sharp action has forced the total down to 41. Carolina (+3.5 -102) at Seattle O/U 43.5 Carolina and Pittsburgh are both attempting to become the first team to win three consecutive road playoff games since the playoff format changed in 1990. Only two wildcard teams have even won 2 consecutive games previously – Indy in 1995-96 and Jacksonville in 1996-97. If the lines are any indication though, Sunday might be the “day of the dog� – as 3 and 3.5 point underdogs, the market strongly suggests that one of these teams could win outright. We initially opened the Panthers as 6-point dogs in the NFC title game. The early money quickly pushed this down to +3.5 and we’re still taking more bets on Carolina by a ratio of 2:1. Some of our sharps took the Panthers at +6 but there’s no clear consensus between the wise guys at 3.5. We opened the total at 43 and the public and sharps are again fighting over the number. At 43 we took twice as many bets on the over as on the under. The market as a whole has crept up, even though the sharps were mainly taking the under. On high profile games like this the public tends to line up on the over and the sharps will often take a contrarian position.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Sports Betting

January 16, 2005 (Indianapolis, Indiana) - How fitting that on Martin Luther King day, the residents in a couple of NFL wild card cities, can in unison recite those famous words! Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Carolina Panthers are well on their way to turning that dream into reality, as they took one more step on a long arduous journey that could see them opposing each other in Motown on February 5th.
In a rather shocking display of dominating offense and relentless defense, Bill Cowher’s troops overwhelmed Peyton and his Posse, as well as turning back what seemed to be divine intervention. To be totally honest with everyone, I actually turned the television off and began preparing an article, when Manning was sacked on fourth down on his own two yard line with just over a minute left in the contest.
I wasn’t the only person who thought the contest was over, as Cowher and the rest of the Steeler contingent, were hugging each other as well. It was only three hours later that a friend asked me if I had seen fellow Canadian Mike Vanderjagt miss a game tying field goal on the last play, that would have forced overtime? What field goal and how did Indy get the ball? Little did I know that Bettis had fumbled and the Colt’s Nick Harper scooted down the field, like a guy being chased by his wife with a knife. Out of nowhere comes Roethlisberger that makes a game saving tackle and thus forced a field goal try that was unsuccessful.
I guess this adds credence, to the saying that it “it is never over, until it is over!
Meanwhile in the Windy City the Carolina Panthers dispelled any myth about the Bears defense, being considered one of the best of all time and Steve Smith took Chicago cornerback Charles Tillman to the woodshed, as the Cats mauled the Bears.
If you are one of the guys who at the start of the year, listened to what several of the football insiders were suggesting, you most likely have a live ticket going, as both the Steelers and Panthers were the picks to go all the way to Detroit in 2006.
Because the Panthers and Steelers stubbed their toes during the regular season, both were underdogs yesterday and Carolina was the live dog two weeks in a row.
Now the NFL scene heads west to Starbucks Country and the Rocky Mountains as the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos, brace themselves for the confident Panthers and Steelers.
In the NFC, Carolina is down to their 3rd string running back Nick Goings as DeShaun Foster broke his ankle and Peppers and some other defensive players are banged up. On the flip side, the Seahawks secondary is young and suspect, so Steve Smith may take over again.
Denver like Pittsburgh loves to bring pressure with a plethora of blitzes and their defensive line is huge, so the Steelers running game may falter. has both the home sides listed as favorites presently, with the books begging folks to jump on the Panthers bandwagon.
I know that Denver will be in Detroit, but I would not count out Carolina, as they bring big game experience to the dance Sunday!
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Monday, January 16, 2006

Sports Betting

NHL Handicapping

NHL Power RankingsThe Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche each ended last week on a long winning streak, moving them both into a position to challenge for one of the top spots in future editions of the NHL Power Rankings. Moving up to No. 1 this week, however, are the Detroit Red Wings, who defeated last week's leader (the Philadelphia Flyers) in a head-to-head matchup on Thursday night to reach the summit. The Flyers drop to No. 3 this week, one spot behind the red-hot Carolina Hurricanes. Still sitting at No. 4 are the Ottawa Senators, who have won six of their past 10 games, while the aforementioned Stars and Avalanche take up spots No. 5 and No. 6 on this week's list. The Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres, Los Angeles Kings, and Toronto Maple Leafs round out the current top 10. The Nashville Predators fall from the top 10 this week to sit in position No. 12; the Preds' quick start to the year is quickly being forgotten. Claude Julien's firing by the Montreal Canadiens marks the fourth coaching change in the league this season, and the first one to take place outside of the Atlantic Division. The Habs stay steady at No. 20 this week, but if the coaching change can spark the team they have lots of room to move up in subsequent lists. The other three teams who have changed coaches this season haven't made much of a dent in the rankings, as the New Jersey Devils sit at No. 16, the New York Islanders are down the list at No. 27, and the Pittsburgh Penguins are way down at No. 29. Here is the Week 16 edition of the NHL Power Rankings. 01 - Detroit Red Wings (Last Week 02)Scored five third-period goals against the Flyers on Thursday night; four points for Henrik Zetterberg in that win. 02 - Carolina Hurricanes (Last Week 03)Have the largest division lead of any first-place team, but will be tested as they suffer through injuries on defense. 03 - Philadelphia Flyers (Last Week 01)Don't seem to want to give a start to Jamie Storr, so it might be all Antero Niittymaki until Robert Esche returns. 04 - Ottawa Senators (Last Week 04)Hope to get center Jason Spezza back in the lineup this week, but are still holding off the Sabres in the Northeast. 05 - Dallas Stars (Last Week 09)Six-game winning streak has moved them atop the Pacific Division, and closer to the Red Wings in the West. 06 - Colorado Avalanche (Last Week 12)Seven-game winning streak has them feeling better about their roster, which could save David Aebischer's job. 07 - Calgary Flames (Last Week 06)Still playing well (won six of ten), but now have the red-hot Avalanche breathing down their necks in the Northwest. 08 - Buffalo Sabres (Last Week 07)Exploded for 10 goals versus the Kings on Saturday, with Jochen Hecht and Jason Pominville each scoring three. 09 - Los Angeles Kings (Last Week 05)Mathieu Garon allowed four goals on 10 shots before getting pulled Saturday, with Adam Hauser then mopping up. 10 - Toronto Maple Leafs (Last Week 08)The severity of Eric Lindros' wrist injury still remains a mystery, with no real timetable set for the big center's return. 11 - New York Rangers (Last Week 14)Honoured Mark Messier at Madison Square Garden this week; no Moose this season, but they are winning again. 12 - Nashville Predators (Last Week 10)Still boast a dominant record at home, but nothing special on the road. Red Wings continue to extend division lead. 13 - Vancouver Canucks (Last Week 13)Hat trick for Todd Bertuzzi against the Islanders on Saturday night, and a strong effort by Alex Auld in the 8-1 win. 14 - Atlanta Thrashers (Last Week 15)Don't look now, but the Thrashers have won seven of their past 10 games and have moved up to seventh in the East. 15 - Edmonton Oilers (Last Week 11)Couldn't handle the Sens in a loss on Saturday night, with Ty Conklin getting yanked in favour of Jussi Markkanen. 16 - New Jersey Devils (Last Week 18)Starting to string some wins together, with Martin Brodeur back to his old form and Patrik Elias leading the offense. 17 - Anaheim Mighty Ducks (Last Week 17)Sykora trade resulted in rookies Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry getting recalled, and they should play more this time. 18 - Phoenix Coyotes (Last Week 22)Came back from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Maple Leafs 4-3 on Saturday night, with Curtis Joseph scoring the win. 19 - Minnesota Wild (Last Week 16)Sit in last place in the Northwest Division, but still boast a .500 record. Have won six of their past 10 contests. 20 - Montreal Canadiens (Last Week 20)Bob Gainey will be behind the bench for the rest of the season, with underachievers likely getting shown the door. 21 - San Jose Sharks (Last Week 21)Gave up six goals to the Habs in Gainey's first game on Saturday night, and they remain in last in the Pacific Division. 22 - Tampa Bay Lightning (Last Week 19)Starting to fall not only behind the Hurricanes but the Thrashers as well. Could goaltender Martin Biron be coming? 23 - Florida Panthers (Last Week 24)Alarm bells went off when Roberto Luongo turned down that big contract offer. Will need to keep their star happy. 24 - Boston Bruins (Last Week 23)Neither the GM nor the coach was fired this past week, although it's widely expected that one or the other is history. 25 - Columbus Blue Jackets (Last Week 29)Nash-Fedorov-Zherdev combo has been leading them to wins as they strive for third place in the Central Division. 26 - Washington Capitals (Last Week 27)Alexander Ovechkin has a chance to win the Rocket Richard Trophy in his rookie season; currently four off the pace. 27 - New York Islanders (Last Week 25)Mike Milbury has finally been booted out of the general manager's seat; can they get a do-over on all of his trades? 28 - Chicago Blackhawks (Last Week 30)Defeated the Penguins 4-1 on Friday night, so they get to jump ahead of them here. Not much else good in Chicago. 29 - Pittsburgh Penguins (Last Week 26)Has Michel Therrien already lost this team? Shouldn't be long before a bunch of Penguins are sent packing in trades. 30 - St. Louis Blues (Last Week 28)Doug Weight's name has been linked to several teams in trade rumours, and he's probably very open to being dealt.
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Sunday, January 15, 2006

Sports Betting

NFL Handicapping
This Dog May Be Barking
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago BearsPanthers +3 If you are looking for a highflying, gun slinging game, with back and forth action including long runs and deep thrown bombs, you have definitely tuned into the wrong playoff game. What you can expect here is a hard hitting, scheming defensive battle that pits two teams that will refuse to make a mistake. The great defensive minds and teams of John Fox and Lovie Smith will fact off in the battle in cold Chicago and we fully anticipate this game to be a field goad battle which makes the +3 points on the visiting team some good value this weekend. The Panthers have over the past few years absolutely excelled at the role of road underdog while this will be the first time in a long time that the Bears will not only be in the playoffs but has the difficult task of not only defending home field but doing so as a favourite. Although this home favourite is only giving up 3 points for home field this is a team that barely averaged more than 14 points per game on offence, most of which were directly scored by the defence it self or as the result of a good field position from a defensive play. The problem here for the Bears is that they will face an equally tough defence. Although from a statistical standpoint the Panthers are not the Bears equal, form a personnel and scheming perspective we feel the Panthers can play up to par with the Bears and the biggest difference in this game is that Carolina will attacking a very raw QB in Rex Grossman while the Bears will be attacking a seasoned veteran in Jake Delhomme. The Panthers will also feature by far the best playmaker on offence with star wideout and punt returner Steve Smith. Both teams feature good place kickers and because of the cold weather expected they will be called upon often in this game. Look for a very deliberate game plan from both coaching staffs in which the field position game takes precedence when making important play calls. Neither team should move the ball consistently and turnovers will be paramount as well as special teams play. We look for the Bears whom we feel have overachieved this year to make one critical mistake and give up one big play to Smith which should be enough to keep the Panthers inside the number. Overall this game is a toss up and if you played this game 10 times you would get 10 different results. The one consistent thing though would be that whomever scores last would get the win with a field goal and when you have a good road team getting those 3 points, we will play on them every time.
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