Sports Betting

Saturday, April 15, 2006

NFL Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC North
Baltimore Ravens The Ravens were expected to contend for a playoff spot but offensive woes led to a 2-7 start before they rallied to win 4 of their last 7 games to finish 6-10. The offense, despite several offseason upgrades, was sabotaged by poor QB play from Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright. They ranked 24th overall and didn't score 20 points until their 11th game. They had one 20+ point game in their first 13 outings and that just won't get it done in the NFL. Despite injuries to MLB Ray Lewis and SS Ed Reed, the defense acquitted itself well, ranking 5th overall. OLB Adalius Thomas led the defense and LB Bart Scott, Lewis' replacement, also played well. Boller had 2 strong games at the end of the season but faltered badly in the season finale at Cleveland. The O-Line was a sore spot all season as even All-World LT Jonathan Ogden didn't play up to his usual standards. The team used ancient CBs Deion Sanders and Dale Carter in their nickel and dime packages but expect both to be gone this year. Despite the substandard QB play, TE Todd Heap led the offense with 75 catches for 855 yards and 7 scores. FA WR Derrick Mason caught 86 passes (3rd in AFC) but only scored 3 times. Unlike recent drafts, the Ravens got little contribution from their '05 class as only WR Mark Clayton (44 catches) contributed. Despite ample cap room, Baltimore has been quiet in the early stages of free agency. They have sustained some losses, as RB Chester Taylor (MIN), P Dave Zastudil (CLE), FS Will Demps (NYG), TE Darnell Dinkins (CLE) and DT Ma'ake Kemoeatu (CAR) signed elsewhere. They have only added CB Corey Ivy (STL) and special teamer DE-LB Gary Stills (KC) up to this point. The Ravens generally will have a big signing or two but have yet to pull the trigger this year. Expect them to look for a veteran QB and some established players for their lines and at FS. The Ravens still have a lot of their own FAs to make decisions on. Some of the top players who remain unsigned are Scott, OLB Tommy Polley, DE Anthony Weaver, Wright and S Chad Williams. If Weaver leaves, DE becomes a priority. Baltimore owns the 13th pick and could go any number of ways. None of the top 3 QBs figure to be there but they could go for a top RB, despite resigning Jamal Lewis. He struggled last season and spent 4 months in jail in the offseason. An O-lineman that can start now would be of use but none figure to warrant a pick at that spot. The Ravens may be better suited to trade down and try to gain extra mid-round picks to shore up their lines. A FS who could start now would be welcome. Ivy could be the new nickel back but a young corner with solid cover skills could also be targeted. BALT added RB Mike Anderson (DEN) - The addition of Anderson gives the Ravens two big, bruising backs but look for them to acquire a smaller scatback- type of runner as a change of pace. Anderson and Lewis will probably split carries in the early part of the season. BALT lost DE Anthony Weaver - This loss is offset by the signing of DE Trevor Pryce (DEN). Pryce, if healthy, is a better pass rusher than Weaver and should make more big plays. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals came into 2005 after back-to-back 8-8 seasons in the first two years of the Marvin Lewis era. The coach preached patience and it paid off in spades as Cincinnati raced out to a 4-0 record en route to an 11-3 start and the clinching of the AFC North title, their first in 17 years. However, they dropped their last 2 regular-season games as the suspect run defense sprung leaks and the secondary started to give up big plays. In their playoff game, QB Carson Palmer, coming off a near-MVP season (32 TD passes, 67.8 completion pct. and 101.1 QB rating) suffered a severe knee injury after completing his first pass and may not be ready for the start of the season. They bowed out to Pittsburgh as QB Jon Kitna couldn't sustain drives. The defense also bears blame for failure to get critical stops. Despite the disappointing conclusion, it was still a banner year for this young team. The offense ranked 6th overall and 4th in scoring. The O-line, led by bookend tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson, ranked 2nd in sack pct. allowed. WR Chad Johnson talked a good game and backed it up, leading the AFC in catches (97) and yards (1,432). He also caught 9 TD passes. The defense, despite an NFL-high 31 picks, ranked 28th overall and 30th in 3rd-down defense. Rookie MLB Odell Thurman was a year-long starter and quickly became the leader on defense. Fellow rookie David Pollack took a while to get going but also became a contributor. The D-line and secondary were weak links, as a season-ending injury to FS Madieu Williams really hurt the secondary. Despite being near the top in available cap space, the Bengals haven't spent much. Bringing in former Super Bowl MVP S Dexter Jackson (TB) should help the secondary. WR-KR Antonio Chatman (GB) should help the return game. Those are the only two additions the club has made. Gone are TE Matt Schobel (PHI), Kitna (DET) and DE Duane Clemons. The club still has 7-8 of their own FAs but none figure to be a priority, especially with the solid drafts executed in the past five seasons. The team would love to sign a veteran run-stuffing DT and a productive TE. CB is also an area they would like to upgrade. The Bengals enter the draft with the 24th pick, their lowest pick in years. DT remains the primary need but the team may address that with a veteran. Jackson and Williams are both FS-types but the team will probably play both of them, so don't expect a high pick on a SS thumper. This is a good draft for TEs, so expect a 2nd or 3rd-round pick to be spent there. A pass-rushing DE who can hold up at the point of attack would also be welcome. The O-line played great last season but C Rich Braham is 35 and his successor could be tabbed here. More corners would also help and the club may spend a first day pick on one. Until the Bengals loosen the purse strings in FA, it's hard to say where they will go in the early rounds of the draft. CIN lost WR Kevin Walter (HOU) Cleveland Browns The Browns entered 2005 knowing there would be growing pains after the disastrous Butch Davis regime. The new team of GM Phil Savage and HC Romeo Crennel knew there would be lumps but also expected to see progress. They were right on both accounts. Cleveland won 6 games and the defense did better than expected after Crennel installed the 3-4. They had a stretch in midseason where they allowed 19 points or less in 7 of 8 games. This was done without a lot of talent in the front seven. They ranked 30th in run defense and just couldn't get stops when they needed them. The secondary played better than expected. QB Trent Dilfer was serviceable as a caretaker but rookie QB Charlie Frye figures to lead the team this season. The trade that brought RB Reuben Droughns to Cleveland paid handsomely as he became the first Cleveland RB to top 1,000 yards (1,232) SINCE 1985. TE Kellen Winslow was lost for the season after some ill-advised hijinks on a motorcycle. He has played 1 complete game in 2 years. If he doesn't stay healthy he'll have to return to being Vin Diesel's stand-in. Rookie WR Braylon Edwards was lost for the year just when he started to make an impact. Overall, considering the talent available, installing a new defensive system, as well as integrating several new starters, this wasn't a bad season in Cleveland and the future finally looks bright. As expected, the Browns have been major players in FA so far. With up to a reported $30 million in cap space, Savage has had money at his disposal to bring in the players he and Crennel want. Gone are DT Amon Gordon (DEN), TE Aaron Shea (SD), DE-LB Kenard Lang (DEN), LB Ben Taylor (GB), LT L.J. Shelton (MIA), WR Antonio Bryant (SF), G Mike Pucillo (WAS), DT Jason Fisk and CB Michael Lehan. S Chris Crocker was traded to Atlanta for a draft pick. AS expected, the front seven was bolstered by two of Crennel's former players: OLB Willie McGinest (NE) and NT Ted Washington (OAK). These two should really help acclimate the young players to the system as well as contribute some on the field but both are aging. TE Darnell Dinkins (BAL) replaces Shea. G Bob Hallen (SD) and LT Kevin Shaffer (ATL) figure to battle for starting spots. P Dave Zastudil (BAL) will be a big upgrade and his signing hurts a division rival. WR Joe Jurevicius (SEA) adds a veteran presence to a young receiving corps and should still be productive. The jewel so far has been the signing of Pro Bowl C LeCharles Bentley. This means incumbent Jeff Faine will either be cut or moved to guard. The O-line has really been upgraded, freeing up the team to spend draft picks in other critical areas. Despite the many additions in free agency, Cleveland still has some big needs. They need a few more LBs, both on the inside and the outside. They should be able to grab a good one with the 12th pick if they want. NT and DE are also spots that need bodies sooner rather than later. They could also use another safety and corner. Overall, the team looks a lot better now than when the season ended. Expect the front seven to get the most attention on draft day. The offense may get a body or two but this draft will be about defense. Pittsburgh Steelers After going 15-1 in 2004 before crapping out at home (Again!) in the AFC title game, Pittsburgh entered 2005 with something to prove. After stumbling to a 7-5 record and little hope of winning the division, something clicked and the team turned it on. They won their last 4 games by 12 points or more. In the playoffs they won at Cincinnati, setting up a rematch with the Colts (who had trounced them 26-7 on Monday night in Week 12). The Steelers were all over them and despite a big fumble by RB Jerome Bettis, they prevailed 21-18. The game at Denver wasn't close for the AFC title. This put the Steelers in the Super Bowl for the 6th time and with some terrible officiating (worst in Super Bowl history by most accounts) they prevailed 21-10 over Seattle. There were many heroes for the team but QB Ben Roethlisberger gets a lot of credit for his cool demeanor, ability to play through pain and strong leadership skills. RB Willie Parker was a revelation, leading the team with 1,202 yards on the ground. Bettis was effective in his swan song and the defense ranked 4th overall and No.3 vs. the run. OLB Clark Haggans was effective as a new starter and SS Troy Polamalu emerged as a difference-maker. Pittsburgh is never busy shoppers in free agency and this year appears to be no different. They have had more losses than gains and will try to shore up the losses in the draft. Gone are WR Antwaan Randle El, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (NYJ), FS Chris Hope (TEN), S Mike Logan, S Russell Stuvaints, QB Tommy Maddox and CB Willie Williams. DE Rodney Bailey (SEA) was signed to battle Brett Keisel to replace von Oelhoffen, while S Ryan Clark figures to be a backup safety at best. Receiver took a hit with the loss of Randle El but there aren't many top FA wideouts available. Pittsburgh just doesn't throw money at other team's free agents very often and look for them to be bargain shoppers after June 1. WR has emerged as one of the team's top needs after the loss of Randle El. With the 32nd pick the team could find a wideout but this isn't a deep draft for receivers. RB is also a need as Bettis has retired, Parker has started only one season and RB Duce Staley can't stay healthy. Expect the Steelers to draft a big RB in the early to mid rounds. A FS is also needed as a potential starter isn't on the roster. Some LB depth would be nice and the Steelers are famous for finding great LB value later in the draft. Pittsburgh has remained competitive despite losing FAs every year because they draft so well. Only one of their picks in the last 4 years is out of the NFL.
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