Sports Betting

Monday, April 10, 2006

Sports Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC South
Houston Texans The Texans thought they were ready to make a big leap in 2005 after winning 5, 6 and 7 games in their first 3 seasons. They made a lot of personnel changes on defense and altered the offensive game plan. The results proved disastrous as the team limped home with a 2-14 record. They lost 8 games by 10+ points but were relatively competitive in the final 6 weeks. Houston couldn't do anything right on offense, ranking 30th overall, 30th in passing, 26th in scoring, 32nd in sack pct. allowed and 31st in yards-per-play. QB David Carr was again running for his life and wasn't very effective when he did have time. RB Davis ran for 976 yards but WR Andre Johnson was slowed by injury and the lack of a credible threat on the other side. The defense was even worse, ranking 31st overall, 32nd vs. the run, 32st in yards-per-play allowed, 31st in interception pct., 32nd in points allowed and 32nd in opponents first downs. HC Dom Capers was fired at season's end and offensive guru Gary Kubiak was brought in to right a badly listing ship. He does have some players to work with. Rookie KR Jerome Mathis made the Pro Bowl and should help Houston in the field position battle. OLB Shantee Orr stepped in and led the team with 7 sacks. Houston will shift to a 4-3 and that means several personnel moves are in the offing. The Texans have some money to spend in FA but have gone the conservative route. They dumped a lot of players to give themselves more economic flexibility. Gone are QB Tony Banks, CB Jason Bell (NYG), WR Corey Bradford (DET), G Milford Brown (ARI), S Marcus Coleman, WR Jabar Gaffney (PHI), RB Tony Hollings and DE Gary Walker. So far they have added FB Jameel Cook (TB), MLB Sam Cowart (MIN), C Mike Flanagan (GB), TE Jeb Putzier (DEN), QB Sage Rosenfels (MIA), WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver (BAL). These moves look to even themselves out as they didn't lose a star player or sign one. They still have about 6-7 FAs of their own they may resign but don't look for them to bring many of those players back. With the shift to the 4-3, more DL and LBs are needed. Expect the team to bring in a few more veterans for the front seven. The O-line, a work-in-progress since the franchise was born, could also use veteran help. With the first overall selection in the draft the Texans could go any number of ways. The fact they seem to be committed to Carr means that Matt Leinart and Vince Young probably won't be the pick. LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson makes a lot of sense and he'd give the O-line it has lacked since the team's inception. They likely will select RB Reggie Bush and hope his big-play ability rejuvenates the offense. Despite the addition of Weaver, DE remains a big need. The Texans never generated pressure on opposing QBs out of their 3-4 and will need rush ends to get to the QB. The signing of Putzier alleviates some of the woes at TE. Former 2nd rounder Bennie Joppru has missed 3 seasons due to injury. Guard also remains a trouble spot as does LT. WR is a pressing need and could be addressed as early as the 2nd round. Johnson needs a partner to take the pressure off on the other side. The Texans would probably be best-served to trade down but they will probably stay put and select Bush. HOU added WR Kevin Walter (CIN) and DE Anthony Weaver - Weaver gives the Texans a solid end who can play in the 4-3 or 3-4. Look for him to start at LE. Indianapolis Colts Indy entered 2005 on a mission to get home field advantage and finally reach the Super Bowl. They reached half of their goals. They sped out to a 13-0 mark before finishing 14-2 and looked to be a good bet to reach the Bowl. They even blasted the Patriots, their nemesis, 40-21 on a Monday night in Foxboro. A 21-18 loss to the Steelers in the divisional round meant another early exit from the playoffs and more soul searching for this underachieving group. The offense was led by RB Edgerrin James, as he finished 2nd in the AFC with 1,506 yards. He also scored 13 TDs and contributed 44 catches. QB Peyton Manning was excellent again, leading the NFL in QB rating. The defense was vastly improved, finishing 11th overall and 2nd in sack pct. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis combined for 22 ½ sacks and terrorized QBs all season. WLB Cato June emerged as a force and made the Pro Bowl. The defense softened down the stretch and couldn't get the big stops toward the end of the year. While it was another great regular season in Indy, another playoff loss really hurt the players and front office types. Don't expect wholesale changes but look for some added tweaking. The Colts have a lot of free agents but limited cap space. James left early for the riches in Arizona and his 2 backups remain unsigned. Starting SLB David Thornton left for Tennessee, the 3rd starting OLB to leave in 3 years. DTs Larry Triplett (BUF) and Josh Williams are also gone. PK Mike Vanderjagt left for Dallas but was replaced by Adam Vinatieri (NE). That signing really helps the Colts and hurts the Patriots. As of this writing, the Colts had at least 10 solid contributors from last year unsigned. They re-upped WR Reggie Wayne but still have players like June, Mathis and MLB Gary Brackett to sign. The Colts won't sign many players from other teams this offseason and will focus almost entirely on their own players. The draft will be used to address needs that the team can't fix with free agents. A starting RB must be found and GM Bill Polian would like one who is stronger in the red zone. Look for Indy to address this need with one of their first two picks. OLB has depth on the team but no obvious candidate to replace Thornton. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so the Colts may wait a round or two to address it. Guard was a spot that was exposed later in the year, especially in pass blocking. A player capable of starting now would help. FS Mike Doss is more of a SS and a free safety with better range would be welcome. A large run-stuffing DT is always welcome and is a position the team has yet to fill despite repeated attempts. Jacksonville Jaguars There are two different ways to look at the Jaguars season. First, they won 12 games and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and that shows they are making good progress. Second, they had a very soft schedule and were blasted by a much-better team (Patriots) in the playoffs. They probably fall somewhere in the middle. The schedule was soft but they did beat Cincinnati, Seattle and Pittsburgh. They also lost to Indy by 7 and 8 points. Despite injuries in the backfield (QB Byron Leftwich, RBs Fred Taylor and Greg Jones), the offense ranked 15th overall and 10th in rushing.QB David Garrard proved a capable fill-in for Leftwich. The defense ranked 6th overall, including 1st in sack pct. FA DE Reggie Hayward led the way with 8 ½ sacks and DE Paul Spicer had 7 ½. Jacksonville HC Jack Del Rio wants the offense to be a power-running team but injuries and some bad fits have prevented that. The team used another 1st-round pick on a wideout, converted QB Matt Jones, with mixed results. 2004 1st-rounder Reggie Williams continued to struggle and 2004 4th-rounder Ernest Wilford outperformed both of them. Jacksonville is in good shape with the salary cap but have a lot of free agents. OLB Akin Ayodele had a poor season and was allowed to sign with Dallas. Backup LB Tracy White signed with GB. The Jags signed CB Brian Williams (MIN) and expect him to start at corner. OTs Stockar McDougle (MIA) and Mike Williams (BUF) are backup types who could compete at guard. Look for the Jaguars to try and sign at least 1 veteran OLB before the draft. Jacksonville picks 28th and have many needs to address. As mentioned above, OLB remains a key spot. This is a deep draft for OLBs, so expect the Jags to grab 1 or 2 players. Guard is another spot that could use an upgrade. The team has Kyle Brady at TE but he is just a glorified OT. They could use a receiving threat to open up the middle and give Leftwich a big target down the seam. The signing of Williams helps but the team could use a speedy young corner still. RB is a spot that doesn't appear weak but don't be surprised if the team drafts a bruising back in the later rounds. Tennessee Titans The Titans had to contend with huge player defections for the 3rd-straight season and fell to 4-12. All 4 wins were against weaker teams and they were crushed in their 4 games vs. the Colts and Jaguars. QB Steve McNair seems far removed from his 2003 co-MVP performance. He was relatively healthy but has aged quickly. The team struggled all season on offense, especially 3rd downs (26th in conversions). The running game wasn't a factor and WR Drew Bennett missed a lot of time due to injury. The TEs (Erron Kinney, Ben Troupe and rookie Bo Scaife) were very productive but a lot of that had to do with the receivers inability to get open and breakdowns in pass protection. The defense was gouged a lot but did pressure the QB well (FA DE Kyle Vanden Bosch contributed 12 ½ sacks and 4 forced fumbles). OLB Keith Bulluck had another big year but the young secondary gave up too many big plays. The Titans were one of the youngest teams in NFL history last season and figure to get better. This year won't see the mass defections of '03, '04 and '05 but some players have moved on. SS Tank Williams (MIN), LB Rocky Boiman (DAL), C Justin Hartwig (CAR) and LT Brad Hopkins all left. Tennessee finally has some cash to spend and have made some noise early in free agency. WR David Givens (NE) was brought in to be a No.1 receiver but that could be a stretch. OLB David Thornton (IND) will start and give the Titans a good set of outside 'backers. FS Chris Hope will help solidify the secondary and C Kevin Mawae, though aging, should help the O-line. With such a young team, expect the Titans to sign more veterans in the coming weeks. The Titans are in a very enviable position in the draft. They draft 3rd and have a keen interest in 4 players. RB Reggie Bush would give them an explosive presence in the backfield but he'll likely be gone. QBs Matt Leinart and Vince Young could learn behind McNair for a year or two and then start. Or LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson could come in and anchor the line for the next 10 years. All 4 players would help the Titans. Young already has a relationship with McNair and would seem like a good fit. MLB is a pressing need and will be addressed on Day 1 if a quality veteran isn't signed. WR is another area that might get a boost but the team drafted 3 players last season. Safety depth and perhaps a RB could be added in the later rounds. More players for the O-line will also get some attention in this draft.
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