Sports Betting

The three major preps for the Kentucky Derby this Saturday are all carded at 9 furlongs and we are starting to separate the men from the boys. Chicago hopefuls will be vying in the Illinois Derby, Big Apple contenders will tune up in the Wood Memorial, and the Tinseltown tigers will slug it out in the Santa Anita Derby. Before we get into each race and identify the main players, bettors have to understand that one race does not make a career. And these races before the Derby are steppingstones that are designed to have runners ready to peak in front on the world on the first Saturday in May at Churchill. No matter how impressive a win in these preps appear, Derby Day will be an entirely new animal. There will be the hype, there will be the throng of over 100,000 yelling and screaming, and there will be the competition. As Giacomo proved last year when he paid $102.60 after running 4th in the Santa Anita Derby, nothing is etched in stone about Kentucky Derby success but he was not the only runner to lose his final Derby prep and pay dividends. When analyzing the prep races it is very important to look to the future and seek value. Consider other monster prices just in the last 10 years or so. Funny Cide paid $73.60, Thunder Gulch paid $51 even, and others in history that shocked the monkey at prices between 8 and 17-1 include Monarchos, Real Quiet, Sea Hero. Lil E. Tee, Unbridled and Alysheba. Starting with the Windy City, the Illinois Derby has pulled horses from around the country and there are a few among the 10 starters that just don't belong. Malameeze, from the rail, has only won one race, and Creative Force in the next post appears far overmatched. Itsallboutthechase is also in tough. He was beaten a nose in first start of the year to a runner that has been crushed 3 times since. The California invaders that have a shot are Mister Triester, who was crushed by Brother Derek but is bred to go on. Racketeer will be winging and you can never discount his trainer Bobby Frankel, but Fast Bobby does not rush his stock and he is already on record as saying this runner is over hyped. Cause to Believe is a nice horse and is the legit chalk. He is 6 for 9 career, but has yet to break the triple digit Beyer barrier. My Golden Song starts from post 9 of 10, has the experience at this distance, has connections that think he will love the long local stretch and you can never dismiss a Todd Pletcher student. The runner that may get the right trip is Sweetnorthernsaint even from outside slot. His only bad race came on the wrong surface, his trainer is 31% for the year, and he was getting to the winner of the Gotham despite going wide. That Gotham winner Like Now came out with a temperature and did not enter the Wood nor did Showing Up, who bruised a foot. Gotham second Keyed Entry lost a heart breaker and he still has some upside to him. He is the controlling speed of the race, has a right to get the trip with the Cryptoclearance blood on the bottom side and Edgar Prado got a chance to figure him out in his last. Pletcher in the Big A notes: "It looks like he came out of the Gotham good…he accomplished everything we hoped for except winning." Tom Albertrani will saddle Tampa Bay Derby hero Deputy Glitters and he has had 5 previous Kentucky Derby starters. His runner shocked the highly regarded Bluegrass Cat in his last win and Albertrani had some interesting things on his mind on the official Kentucky Derby site: "I think Keyed Entry is the one we have to beat..I think we'll be probably be stalking the pace, probably in a similar fashion to the Tampa Bay Derby and I think that's the way the race will unfold." As any good handicapper will tell you, players have to project and visualize the pace to be successful and this is the way the Wood may unfold. As the race plays out, expect Jazil from the rail to be overmatched every step since he has zero speed and was crushed in his last effort. Platinum Couple could not break the 80 Beyer barrier in a 2nd recently in allowance company vs. state breds and he is basically shooting for the moon. Keyed Entry brings :44 and small change speed to the party and will be on the muscle from the sound of the bell. Glitters has escalating Beyers, should be pressing maybe 2 or so lengths off the pace and primed to pounce while Niagara Causeway has at least proven he can carry his speed but he was crushed in only real stern test. Greeley's Legacy can kick and will try to mow them all down with his potent late punch. Bob and John, in from California, showed a bit of a new dimension last time but will have to bring his A game to justify his 2-1 morning line status. He doesn't have the speed to contend early and would look for his rider Garrett Gomez to take a hold, try to get the guy to relax, and make the one big run. The two outside runners, Marco's Tale, an improving reformed claimer, and Scanlon's Song, just a maiden winner, may be hoping against hope. At the finish Deputy Glitters looks Keyed Entry in the eye with a furlong to go but blinks while Bob and John and Greeley's Legacy start to make their moves. Entry finds another gear and draws away, while Legacy out games the Baffert for the place. The Santa Anita Derby starts and ends with Dan Hendricks's student Brother Derek. The pace of the race favors him in that there is little other speed to soften him up and he has been working absolutely a hole in the wind. He posted a 1:11 best of the morning drill the end of March and his work Sunday was one of the best seen at Anita in decades. Of the 5 rivals, Wildfang does not belong in the same zip code as Derek and Indy Wildcat just broke his maiden all out at Sunland Park. A. P. Warrior and Point Determined are the biggest threats to pull off the upset and have a feeling Sacred Light will be day late and a dollar short. When the smoke clears, the story will be about Big Brother heading to Kentucky as the Derby chalk.
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