Sports Betting

Saturday, April 08, 2006

NFL Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC West
Denver Broncos The Broncos had finished 2nd in the AFC West for 3-straight seasons before last year. They ended that string with a 13-3 record and the No.2 seed in the AFC. QB Jake Plummer had his best season and made big play after big play, helping to lead the offense to a 5th overall ranking. RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell sparked the running game to a No.2 ranking. The defense ranked 15th overall but 2nd vs. the run. They allowed a lot of passing yards but some of that was because they were playing with big leads. They took care of the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs but were manhandled at home by the Steelers, 34-17. HC Mike Shanahan won his first playoff game without QB John Elway and now will be without his Off. Co., and right hand man Gary Kubiak, who left at season's end to coach the Texans. He also took heat for acquiring the entire Browns starting D-Line, a group which was bad in '04 but rebounded in Denver. The Broncos have been quiet in free agency up to now but have absorbed some losses. DE Trevor Pryce and RB Mike Anderson both signed with Baltimore and TE Jeb Putzier signed with Houston. So far the Broncos have added two more Cleveland DEs, Amon Gordon and Kenard Lang. OL Kyle Kosier (DET) was added to give depth at many positions. Denver doesn't have any major FAs left to sign from their own team but made noise about acquiring WR Terrell Owens and RB Ricky Williams. Owens signed with Dallas and Williams could be sidelined if rumors about a failed drug test are true. The Broncos have already been busy on the trade front, sending their 1st, 3rd and 4th round picks to Atlanta for their 1st rounder. They now own the 15th and 22nd picks in the first round. WR remains a need as Ashley Lelie hasn't developed into a reliable target. Safety is another spot that could be addressed. SS John Lynch is aging and a safety with range would be welcome. The O-line could use some depth as well. With two high picks and a relatively strong roster, Denver could go with the best available but if WR Santonio Holmes is available at 15, the Broncos will be hard pressed to pass him up. DEN lost RB Mike Anderson (BAL) - The loss of Anderson means RB becomes a priority in the draft. Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get 20+ carries a game and RB Ron Dayne hasn't proven reliable as a big carry back in the NFL. DEN lost DE Trevor Pryce - The loss of Pryce hurts the Broncos but they love to stockpile D-Linemen anyway. Look for them to try and grab a DE on the first day of the draft. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs opened up the checkbook in 2005 to bring in defensive help. It didn't work as the defense finished 25th overall and 30th vs. the pass. The offense ranked 1st overall even after RB Priest Holmes was lost for the year. The reason for the lack of dropoff: RB Larry Johnson. He ran for 1,750 yards and 20 TDs despite starting only 9! games. The Chiefs missed the playoffs despite a 10-6 record. They can point to a loss at Buffalo in midseason and two late losses at the Cowboys and Giants as the reason they missed the playoffs. This is an aging team and they need to win now. HC Dick Vermeil couldn't wait and retired at the end of the season. NY Jet HC Herm Edwards got himself out of New York and was hired to replace his mentor. He has told Johnson that the starting job is his and if Holmes returns, it will be as a backup. With a few more defensive additions, this team could be in the mix again next year. The Chiefs were quite a bit over the cap at season's end but restructured some contracts to get under. AS of this writing, they had yet to sign a free agent. They have endured some losses, however. OLB Shawn Barber (PHI), QB Todd Collins (WAS), FB Tony Richardson (MIN), DE-OLB Gary Stills and CBs Dexter McCleon and Eric Warfield. These are some key veterans that the team lost and they need some of their younger players to step up. Kansas City has the 20th pick and has two big needs: WR and CB. If they find value at this spot with one of these positions, they will certainly nab him. OT and the DL are two other positions that will be addressed in the top part of the draft. A FB, a safety and possibly a developmental QB could also be on the radar. This team has a lot of older players and needs to win now, so don't expect a lot of rookies to start this season but KC must prepare for when these players (especially on the O-line) retire. Oakland Raiders The Raiders made a couple of big moves last offseason to boost the offense (RB Lamont Jordan, WR Randy Moss) but the results weren't there. Oakland finished 21st in offense and 29th in rushing. Moss was slowed by injury but still topped 1,000 yards. Jordan ran for 1,025 yards but was forgotten in many games. The O-line badly underperformed and QB Kerry Collins regressed after a quick start. The defense ranked 27th and was really hurt by an inability to force TOs (32nd in interception pct.). This all led to a 4-12 record. FA DE Derrick Burgess came in and led the NFL with 16 sacks, while rookie LB Kirk Morrison stepped in and led the team in tackles. Other than those two, very few defenders made an impact. CB Charles Woodson was franchised at $10 million and didn't earn a 10th of that. HC Norv Turner was axed at the end of the season and Oakland wited longer than any other team to name a replacement. That led to speculation that Pittsburgh Off. Co. Ken Whisenhunt was their guy but Al Davis reached back into the vault of Raider lore and hired…Art Shell! It was a shock hire and very few people believe Shell is the man to turn this team around. The Raiders don't have the cap room to be big players in free agency but they'll still make some moves. They had to jettison bloated contracts to get under the cap and released QB Kerry Collins, DT Ted Washington (CLE), CB Denard Walker, G Ron Stone and CB Renaldo Hill (MIA). They signed the enigmatic QB Aaron Brooks (NO) to replace Collins but the only consistent thing about Brooks is his inconsistency. They also signed two CBs from NE, Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole. They may sign more players after June 1, but don't expect any high-profile signings until after the draft. The team has a slew of free agents but other than DT Ed Jasper, none stand out. The Raiders lost a coin flip with the 49ers and will pick 7th in the draft. OLB is the biggest need for this team as they haven't had an impact OLB since Rod Martin. Ohio State LB A. J. Hawk may be available and he would be perfect for this team. Guard is also a need area but that won't be addressed this high. SS and DT are also big need areas. A QB that could start in a few years is also needed but the Raiders haven't drafted and developed a competent QB since Ken Stabler (we won't count Marc Wilson). Oakland rarely follows a blueprint in their drafts and they could select anybody with their pick. If Vince Young slips, he could be their man. San Diego Chargers The Chargers entered 2005 coming off their best season in years, going 12-4 and winning the AFC West. A heartbreaking playoff loss to the Jets was hard to take, but they looked at 2005 as a continuation of their great play from the year before. An inability to close teams out (5 losses by 4 points or less) coupled with a brutal schedule (Broncos and Chiefs twice plus the Cowboys, Giants, Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Redskins and Dolphins) meant a 9-7 record and no playoffs. QB Drew Brees had another solid season (24-15 TD/INT ratio) but wasn't impressed with the Chargers offer and left for New Orleans at season's end. RB LaDainian Tomlinson still put up numbers but was a marked man and found the going tough. He was a beaten up player at season's end. The defense was bolstered by the additions of rookies OLB Shawne Merriman (NFL Def. Rookie of the Year) and DE Luis Castillo. The secondary continued to have trouble in coverage despite the bolstered pass rush. The Chargers entered free agency with a ton of cap money but haven't spent it yet. They have signed TE Aaron Shea (CLE) to replace Justin Peelle (MIA) and S Marlon McCree to add depth. They have lost Brees, as well as OLB Ben Leber (MIN), WRT Reche Caldwell (NE), G Bob Hallen (CLE) and DE DeQuincy Scott (MIN). The rest of their free agents are reserves and special teamers. They could use veteran help at corner and wideout but there are few receivers available. They also need a starting safety and OL depth. The Chargers have the 19th pick and WR Santonio Holmes would be a good fit. One problem: the Cowboys pick 18th and also have Holmes on their radar. A safety would be OK if the value was there. The O-line underperformed last year after a good 2004. They also lost the services of O-line coach Hudson Houck and his absence could have affected the unit. The team also could use a backup QB as Philip Rivers becomes the new starter. While he is expected to match his draft class rivals (Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger), he is not a sure thing. The Chargers have drafted well in the GM A.J. Smith era and look for them to make solid picks rather than reach for need.
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