NCAA Betting

Sports Handicapping
Handicapping March Madness TournamentOverall NCAA Basketball Tournament Trends (All stats are from 1999 and cover the last seven years) Straight Up winners are 331-99-11 ATS during March Madness with the Favourites going (305-136 SU) 195-99-11 ATS (66.3%). From that set of base results Underdogs that lose Straight Up cover the number just 33.7% of the time. That being the case, if you are going to play an underdog, you might be better served to play them on the money line. Overall, Underdogs are a combinded 231-199-11 ATS (53.7%). The best performing seeds ATS have been the #12 (60.3%), #10 (58.7%) and #8 (57.2%). The worst performances from seeds have come from the #14 seed which has a 11-17-2 ATS (39.3%) mark and the not so lucky #7 seed (41.4%). Favourites priced between -11 and -14 are 18-28-3 ATS (39.1%). Favourites priced between -8 and -10.5 are 24-32-3 ATS (42.8%). So putting those two parameters together and reversing them, you will see that underdogs priced between +8 and +14 are 60-42-6 ATS (58.8%). Favourites at -3.5 or less are 50-71-5 ATS (41.3%). Favourites priced between -4 and -7.5 are 68-65 ATS (44.4%). Favourites of -14.5 or greater are 42-32 ATS (56.7%). ROUND ONEStraight Up winners in first round games are 161-57-6 ATS (73.8%). Underdogs that lose straight up are 57-104-6 ATS (35.4%). Underdogs are 114-104-6 ATS (52.3%). #12 seeds vs. #5 seeds are 17-10-1 ATS (62.9%). Both the #3 and #10 seeds are 59% ATS winning propositions in opening round games. Favourites priced between -11 and -14 are 8-17-2 ATS (32%). Favourites priced between -4 to -7.5 are 21-29 ATS (42%). Favourites of -18.5 points in round one are 25-17 ATS (59.5%). ROUND TWO Straight Up winners in round two games are a blistering 91-18-3 ATS (83.5%). Underdogs that lose straight up in round two games are 18-48-3 ATS (27.3%) including 9-33-2 ATS (21.4%) in round two games since 2001. Overall, Underdogs in round two games are 61-48-3 ATS (55.9%). It should be noted that this angle is inflated somewhat because of the poor performances of favourites in 1999, 2000 and 2004 which went a combinded 11-36-1 ATS. Favourites during a three year span 2001 to 2003 went a combinded 28-18-2 ATS. The best performing seed in round two has been the #10 seed, which is 11-4 ATS (73.3%). Next best is the #8 seed with an 11-5 ATS (68.7%) mark. Underdogs of +3.5 or less are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in the second round Underdogs priced between +8.5 and +10.5 are 11-4-3 ATS (73.3%) in the round of thirty-two.
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NCAA Betting

The Kansas Jayhawks, winners of 15 of their last 16 games, meet the Bradley Braves in an NCAA first-round bout in Auburn Hills Friday.
Kansas, a #4 seed, beat Texas last Sunday 80-66 in the Big 12 Conference tournament title game. The Jayhawks went 13-3 in the Big 12 this season, tying with the Longhorns for the league's regular-season championship.
Bradley, the 13 seed and an at-large invitee, tied for fifth in the Missouri Valley Conference this season at 11-7. The Braves had a seven-game winning streak snapped in the MVC tournament title game by Southern Illinois 12 days ago.
Kansas lost in the first round in the NCAA tournament to Bucknell last March. Bradley hasn't played in the NCAA tournament since 1996.
Both teams have been money-makers for bettors this season. Kansas is 18-10 against the spread, 14-8 ats as favorites. Bradley is 17-10 vs. the number, 4-3 ats as underdogs.
The Jayhawks led all of Division 1 by holding opponents to just 37% shooting from the field. Kansas also outrebounds foes by 5.5 per game.
The Braves held opponents to 40% shooting from the floor, and outrebounded foes by 4 per game.
Kansas has done all this with one of the youngest teams in the nation. The Jayhawks starting line-up consists of three freshmen and two sophomores.
In the latest RPI at NCAAsports.com, Kansas is ranked 20th, Bradley 33rd. The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings rank the Jayhawks #6 at 90.1, the Braves #22 at 85.3.
The Sagarin conference rankings have the Big 12 rated 6th, the MVC 7th.
The over is 16-12 in Bradley games this season, but 10-18 in Kansas games.

Coming into the tournament, Kansas is playing their best ball of the season. We look for a cover with a double digit win!
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NCAA Betting

Basketball Betting
These dogs may be worth a wagerIt's a given that there will be some big upsets in the first round of the NCAA tournament. However, picking which teams will pull off a straight up (SU) is extremely difficult. Picking heavy underdogs to cover, on the other hand, is bound to be more profitable, especially if you look at the trends. In the Atlanta Region, a team bettors will want to take a look at is Iona. The Gaels are 23-7 SU this season and easily won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament last week. Iona has one of the best betting records in Division I having gone 17-9-2 against the spread (ATS). That's a winning percentage of 61 percent. One of the Gaels' biggest ATS wins of the season came against Kentucky in December. They lost 73-67 SU but beat the spread as 9.5-point road dogs. The Gaels are seeded No. 13 and will face No. 4 LSU in the first round of the tournament on Thursday at Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville (7:10 p.m. ET). LSU is coming off an 81-65 thrashing to Florida in the SEC tournament as 1-point dogs. The Tigers opened as a 7-point favorite versus Iona. They might have been a bigger favorite if freshman Tyrus Thomas was not been recovering from an injury. Thomas has missed the past four games due to a high ankle sprain. The SEC Freshman of the Year averaged 12.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and league-leading three blocks per game. Despite the injury, Thomas is expected to play against the Gaels. Over in the Oakland Region, bettors should consider handicapping Kent St. The Golden Flashes are 25-8 SU this season and won the Mid-American Conference tournament last week. Against the number, the Flashes are an amazing 19-9-1 this season. They are seventh overall in the Division I with a winning percentage of 66 percent. The No. 12 Flashes will face No. 5 Pittsburgh on Friday at the Palace of Auburn Hills, Auburn Hills (7:10 p.m. ET). The Panthers, who lost to Syracuse in the Big East championship game, opened as a 6-point chalk. In the Minneapolis Region, South Alabama is worth watching. The Jaguars are 24-6 SU and are winners of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. This season the Jags are 17-8 ATS. They are seeded No. 14 and will tip off with No. 3 Florida on Thursday in Jacksonville (2:25 p.m. ET). The SEC champion Gators opened as 9-point favorites. And finally, in the Washington Region, the team that many don't believe should be in the tournament, Air Force, deserves a look. The Falcons were 24-6 SU on the season but lost to Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference tournament last week. Nonetheless, they have been solid pick against the number having gone 13-8-1 ATS. No. 13 Air Force will face No. 4 Illinois on Thursday at Cox Arena in San Diego (7:25 p.m. ET). The Illini opened as 9-point favorites.
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NCAA Betting

It’s that time a year again folks where company head’s dread, as they realize several hours will be lost in productively as their employees are glued to their bracket sheet holding the names of 64 schools.
Tomorrow in Dayton, Ohio Monmouth and Hampton will square off in what is called a Play-in-game to see who gets the right to board a plane to Philadelphia and a date with the Villanova Wildcats on Thursday.

The four top seeds are Duke in Greensboro, North Carolina, Memphis in Dallas, Connecticut in Philadelphia and Villanova in the “City of Brotherly Love� this weekend.
Syracuse did the unthinkable and beat Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown and Pittsburgh in succession in New York at the Big East Championship this past weekend and now heads to the tournament in the role of hunted not hunter. They could run into a buzz saw on Thursday in Jacksonville, Florida when Billy Gillespie and his Aggies of Texas A&M come calling. The Aggies put the clamps on Texas recently and the Longhorns had far better talent then the Orangemen. Incidentally the line has opened at Syracuse –1.5 and they are begging the public to hammer SYRACUSE, but A&M is the play.
My upset special on Friday will be in Dallas where the struggling Wolfpack of North Carolina State get a new lease on life when they face the Golden Bears of California. NC State gave teams fits early in the year with their 4-guard set and awesome three point shooting. They were stone cold down the stretch but a lot of this had to do with their rival ACC teams so familiar with their system. California must travel through time zones to play a game that will tip off in the morning on their clocks. Cal has rugged Leon Powe who is a handful, but NC State can neutralize him with Cedric Simmons. Look for State to send Cal packing!
It will be 40 minutes of hell in Philadelphia on Friday as UAB tackles former tournament giant Kentucky. UAB is a relentless defender and the Wildcats have underachieved this year. If Kentucky can beat the trap they have better talent, but I’m not sure they are in good enough physical shape to handle Mike Anderson’s Blazers. The line sits at Kentucky –2.5 today, but if you are patient the public will drive that line to 3- 3 ½. Take the dog here!
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