NFL Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC West
Denver Broncos The Broncos had finished 2nd in the AFC West for 3-straight seasons before last year. They ended that string with a 13-3 record and the No.2 seed in the AFC. QB Jake Plummer had his best season and made big play after big play, helping to lead the offense to a 5th overall ranking. RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell sparked the running game to a No.2 ranking. The defense ranked 15th overall but 2nd vs. the run. They allowed a lot of passing yards but some of that was because they were playing with big leads. They took care of the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs but were manhandled at home by the Steelers, 34-17. HC Mike Shanahan won his first playoff game without QB John Elway and now will be without his Off. Co., and right hand man Gary Kubiak, who left at season's end to coach the Texans. He also took heat for acquiring the entire Browns starting D-Line, a group which was bad in '04 but rebounded in Denver. The Broncos have been quiet in free agency up to now but have absorbed some losses. DE Trevor Pryce and RB Mike Anderson both signed with Baltimore and TE Jeb Putzier signed with Houston. So far the Broncos have added two more Cleveland DEs, Amon Gordon and Kenard Lang. OL Kyle Kosier (DET) was added to give depth at many positions. Denver doesn't have any major FAs left to sign from their own team but made noise about acquiring WR Terrell Owens and RB Ricky Williams. Owens signed with Dallas and Williams could be sidelined if rumors about a failed drug test are true. The Broncos have already been busy on the trade front, sending their 1st, 3rd and 4th round picks to Atlanta for their 1st rounder. They now own the 15th and 22nd picks in the first round. WR remains a need as Ashley Lelie hasn't developed into a reliable target. Safety is another spot that could be addressed. SS John Lynch is aging and a safety with range would be welcome. The O-line could use some depth as well. With two high picks and a relatively strong roster, Denver could go with the best available but if WR Santonio Holmes is available at 15, the Broncos will be hard pressed to pass him up. DEN lost RB Mike Anderson (BAL) - The loss of Anderson means RB becomes a priority in the draft. Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get 20+ carries a game and RB Ron Dayne hasn't proven reliable as a big carry back in the NFL. DEN lost DE Trevor Pryce - The loss of Pryce hurts the Broncos but they love to stockpile D-Linemen anyway. Look for them to try and grab a DE on the first day of the draft. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs opened up the checkbook in 2005 to bring in defensive help. It didn't work as the defense finished 25th overall and 30th vs. the pass. The offense ranked 1st overall even after RB Priest Holmes was lost for the year. The reason for the lack of dropoff: RB Larry Johnson. He ran for 1,750 yards and 20 TDs despite starting only 9! games. The Chiefs missed the playoffs despite a 10-6 record. They can point to a loss at Buffalo in midseason and two late losses at the Cowboys and Giants as the reason they missed the playoffs. This is an aging team and they need to win now. HC Dick Vermeil couldn't wait and retired at the end of the season. NY Jet HC Herm Edwards got himself out of New York and was hired to replace his mentor. He has told Johnson that the starting job is his and if Holmes returns, it will be as a backup. With a few more defensive additions, this team could be in the mix again next year. The Chiefs were quite a bit over the cap at season's end but restructured some contracts to get under. AS of this writing, they had yet to sign a free agent. They have endured some losses, however. OLB Shawn Barber (PHI), QB Todd Collins (WAS), FB Tony Richardson (MIN), DE-OLB Gary Stills and CBs Dexter McCleon and Eric Warfield. These are some key veterans that the team lost and they need some of their younger players to step up. Kansas City has the 20th pick and has two big needs: WR and CB. If they find value at this spot with one of these positions, they will certainly nab him. OT and the DL are two other positions that will be addressed in the top part of the draft. A FB, a safety and possibly a developmental QB could also be on the radar. This team has a lot of older players and needs to win now, so don't expect a lot of rookies to start this season but KC must prepare for when these players (especially on the O-line) retire. Oakland Raiders The Raiders made a couple of big moves last offseason to boost the offense (RB Lamont Jordan, WR Randy Moss) but the results weren't there. Oakland finished 21st in offense and 29th in rushing. Moss was slowed by injury but still topped 1,000 yards. Jordan ran for 1,025 yards but was forgotten in many games. The O-line badly underperformed and QB Kerry Collins regressed after a quick start. The defense ranked 27th and was really hurt by an inability to force TOs (32nd in interception pct.). This all led to a 4-12 record. FA DE Derrick Burgess came in and led the NFL with 16 sacks, while rookie LB Kirk Morrison stepped in and led the team in tackles. Other than those two, very few defenders made an impact. CB Charles Woodson was franchised at $10 million and didn't earn a 10th of that. HC Norv Turner was axed at the end of the season and Oakland wited longer than any other team to name a replacement. That led to speculation that Pittsburgh Off. Co. Ken Whisenhunt was their guy but Al Davis reached back into the vault of Raider lore and hired…Art Shell! It was a shock hire and very few people believe Shell is the man to turn this team around. The Raiders don't have the cap room to be big players in free agency but they'll still make some moves. They had to jettison bloated contracts to get under the cap and released QB Kerry Collins, DT Ted Washington (CLE), CB Denard Walker, G Ron Stone and CB Renaldo Hill (MIA). They signed the enigmatic QB Aaron Brooks (NO) to replace Collins but the only consistent thing about Brooks is his inconsistency. They also signed two CBs from NE, Duane Starks and Tyrone Poole. They may sign more players after June 1, but don't expect any high-profile signings until after the draft. The team has a slew of free agents but other than DT Ed Jasper, none stand out. The Raiders lost a coin flip with the 49ers and will pick 7th in the draft. OLB is the biggest need for this team as they haven't had an impact OLB since Rod Martin. Ohio State LB A. J. Hawk may be available and he would be perfect for this team. Guard is also a need area but that won't be addressed this high. SS and DT are also big need areas. A QB that could start in a few years is also needed but the Raiders haven't drafted and developed a competent QB since Ken Stabler (we won't count Marc Wilson). Oakland rarely follows a blueprint in their drafts and they could select anybody with their pick. If Vince Young slips, he could be their man. San Diego Chargers The Chargers entered 2005 coming off their best season in years, going 12-4 and winning the AFC West. A heartbreaking playoff loss to the Jets was hard to take, but they looked at 2005 as a continuation of their great play from the year before. An inability to close teams out (5 losses by 4 points or less) coupled with a brutal schedule (Broncos and Chiefs twice plus the Cowboys, Giants, Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Redskins and Dolphins) meant a 9-7 record and no playoffs. QB Drew Brees had another solid season (24-15 TD/INT ratio) but wasn't impressed with the Chargers offer and left for New Orleans at season's end. RB LaDainian Tomlinson still put up numbers but was a marked man and found the going tough. He was a beaten up player at season's end. The defense was bolstered by the additions of rookies OLB Shawne Merriman (NFL Def. Rookie of the Year) and DE Luis Castillo. The secondary continued to have trouble in coverage despite the bolstered pass rush. The Chargers entered free agency with a ton of cap money but haven't spent it yet. They have signed TE Aaron Shea (CLE) to replace Justin Peelle (MIA) and S Marlon McCree to add depth. They have lost Brees, as well as OLB Ben Leber (MIN), WRT Reche Caldwell (NE), G Bob Hallen (CLE) and DE DeQuincy Scott (MIN). The rest of their free agents are reserves and special teamers. They could use veteran help at corner and wideout but there are few receivers available. They also need a starting safety and OL depth. The Chargers have the 19th pick and WR Santonio Holmes would be a good fit. One problem: the Cowboys pick 18th and also have Holmes on their radar. A safety would be OK if the value was there. The O-line underperformed last year after a good 2004. They also lost the services of O-line coach Hudson Houck and his absence could have affected the unit. The team also could use a backup QB as Philip Rivers becomes the new starter. While he is expected to match his draft class rivals (Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger), he is not a sure thing. The Chargers have drafted well in the GM A.J. Smith era and look for them to make solid picks rather than reach for need.
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Sports Betting

The three major preps for the Kentucky Derby this Saturday are all carded at 9 furlongs and we are starting to separate the men from the boys. Chicago hopefuls will be vying in the Illinois Derby, Big Apple contenders will tune up in the Wood Memorial, and the Tinseltown tigers will slug it out in the Santa Anita Derby. Before we get into each race and identify the main players, bettors have to understand that one race does not make a career. And these races before the Derby are steppingstones that are designed to have runners ready to peak in front on the world on the first Saturday in May at Churchill. No matter how impressive a win in these preps appear, Derby Day will be an entirely new animal. There will be the hype, there will be the throng of over 100,000 yelling and screaming, and there will be the competition. As Giacomo proved last year when he paid $102.60 after running 4th in the Santa Anita Derby, nothing is etched in stone about Kentucky Derby success but he was not the only runner to lose his final Derby prep and pay dividends. When analyzing the prep races it is very important to look to the future and seek value. Consider other monster prices just in the last 10 years or so. Funny Cide paid $73.60, Thunder Gulch paid $51 even, and others in history that shocked the monkey at prices between 8 and 17-1 include Monarchos, Real Quiet, Sea Hero. Lil E. Tee, Unbridled and Alysheba. Starting with the Windy City, the Illinois Derby has pulled horses from around the country and there are a few among the 10 starters that just don't belong. Malameeze, from the rail, has only won one race, and Creative Force in the next post appears far overmatched. Itsallboutthechase is also in tough. He was beaten a nose in first start of the year to a runner that has been crushed 3 times since. The California invaders that have a shot are Mister Triester, who was crushed by Brother Derek but is bred to go on. Racketeer will be winging and you can never discount his trainer Bobby Frankel, but Fast Bobby does not rush his stock and he is already on record as saying this runner is over hyped. Cause to Believe is a nice horse and is the legit chalk. He is 6 for 9 career, but has yet to break the triple digit Beyer barrier. My Golden Song starts from post 9 of 10, has the experience at this distance, has connections that think he will love the long local stretch and you can never dismiss a Todd Pletcher student. The runner that may get the right trip is Sweetnorthernsaint even from outside slot. His only bad race came on the wrong surface, his trainer is 31% for the year, and he was getting to the winner of the Gotham despite going wide. That Gotham winner Like Now came out with a temperature and did not enter the Wood nor did Showing Up, who bruised a foot. Gotham second Keyed Entry lost a heart breaker and he still has some upside to him. He is the controlling speed of the race, has a right to get the trip with the Cryptoclearance blood on the bottom side and Edgar Prado got a chance to figure him out in his last. Pletcher in the Big A notes: "It looks like he came out of the Gotham good…he accomplished everything we hoped for except winning." Tom Albertrani will saddle Tampa Bay Derby hero Deputy Glitters and he has had 5 previous Kentucky Derby starters. His runner shocked the highly regarded Bluegrass Cat in his last win and Albertrani had some interesting things on his mind on the official Kentucky Derby site: "I think Keyed Entry is the one we have to beat..I think we'll be probably be stalking the pace, probably in a similar fashion to the Tampa Bay Derby and I think that's the way the race will unfold." As any good handicapper will tell you, players have to project and visualize the pace to be successful and this is the way the Wood may unfold. As the race plays out, expect Jazil from the rail to be overmatched every step since he has zero speed and was crushed in his last effort. Platinum Couple could not break the 80 Beyer barrier in a 2nd recently in allowance company vs. state breds and he is basically shooting for the moon. Keyed Entry brings :44 and small change speed to the party and will be on the muscle from the sound of the bell. Glitters has escalating Beyers, should be pressing maybe 2 or so lengths off the pace and primed to pounce while Niagara Causeway has at least proven he can carry his speed but he was crushed in only real stern test. Greeley's Legacy can kick and will try to mow them all down with his potent late punch. Bob and John, in from California, showed a bit of a new dimension last time but will have to bring his A game to justify his 2-1 morning line status. He doesn't have the speed to contend early and would look for his rider Garrett Gomez to take a hold, try to get the guy to relax, and make the one big run. The two outside runners, Marco's Tale, an improving reformed claimer, and Scanlon's Song, just a maiden winner, may be hoping against hope. At the finish Deputy Glitters looks Keyed Entry in the eye with a furlong to go but blinks while Bob and John and Greeley's Legacy start to make their moves. Entry finds another gear and draws away, while Legacy out games the Baffert for the place. The Santa Anita Derby starts and ends with Dan Hendricks's student Brother Derek. The pace of the race favors him in that there is little other speed to soften him up and he has been working absolutely a hole in the wind. He posted a 1:11 best of the morning drill the end of March and his work Sunday was one of the best seen at Anita in decades. Of the 5 rivals, Wildfang does not belong in the same zip code as Derek and Indy Wildcat just broke his maiden all out at Sunland Park. A. P. Warrior and Point Determined are the biggest threats to pull off the upset and have a feeling Sacred Light will be day late and a dollar short. When the smoke clears, the story will be about Big Brother heading to Kentucky as the Derby chalk.
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Sports Betting

NFL Football Handicapping
NFL Offseason Report - AFC East
Buffalo Bills Coming off a 9-7 campaign in 2004, the Bills had high hopes for the 2005 season. They had finished strong after a terrible start in '04 and a loss to the Steelers' 'B' team on the final day had kept them out of the playoffs. That loss convinced the team that QB Drew Bledsoe wasn't the man to lead the team forward and they dumped him in favor of QB J.P. Losman. The defense (top 5 in '04) returned intact (minus DT Pat Williams) and things looked good for the coming season. It never worked out that way, as Losman struggled early, leading the team to a 1-3 mark before he was replaced by QB Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb led them to 2 quick wins but Buffalo then proceeded to lose 7 of 8 en route to a 5-11 season. The defense finished 29th overall and 31st vs. the run as Buffalo missed Williams a lot more than they thought they would. The passing game ranked 29th as Holcomb and Losman failed to take advantage of fleet WR Lee Evans' speed. The O-line had a very bad year, with injuries, age and just poor blocking dooming the offense. The poor season cost President/GM Tom Donahoe his job and Head Coach Mike Mularkey gracefully stepped aside, paving the way for the return of Marv Levy to oversee the football operations and Dick Jauron (former Bear and Lion HC) to run the team on the field. The team had many needs entering free agency but has gone the route of the discount shopper so far. They dumped SS Lawyer Milloy (ATL), DT Sam Adams, OL Mike Williams (JAX), TE Mark Campbell and DT Justin Bannan (BAL) to get under the cap and have taken it slow in free agency. They have added S Matt Bowen (WAS), WR Andre' Davis (NE), C Melvin Fowler (MIN), QB Craig Nall (GB) and TE Robert Royal (WAS) but all of these players figure to be backups. Fowler and Royal will contend for starting jobs but at the very least, at depth at places they were needed. DT Larry Triplett (IND) was also signed but he never lived up to his 2nd-round status with the Colts. DT is the team's biggest need but I don't think the Triplett signing alleviates that need completely. He will join the rotation but a big run-stuffing tackle is needed to keep interior linemen away from smallish MLB London Fletcher. The team could target DT in the 1st round of the draft (8th pick). A LT is also a huge need. Jonas Jennings left before last season to sign a rich deal with the 49ers and the team plugged in Mike Gandy with disastrous results. Look for the team to take an OT on the first day of the draft if they don't sign a veteran in free agency. With the departure of Milloy, a strong safety is also needed. FS Troy Vincent will be 35 next season and has lost some steps. Both positions need upgrades and the team will hope to draft at least one starter. The Bills probably won't make a big splash in the remaining days of FA but they have given WR Eric Moulds permission to seek a trade. His departure would create the need for another starting receiver but the FA pool is shallow and the draft isn't stocked with wideouts either. This will be a situation worth watching. Miami Dolphins Miami entered the 2005 season on the heels of a disastrous 2004 campaign where they went 4-12. RB Ricky Williams killed the team when he bolted just prior to training camp to seek his spiritual identity and some good pot. New HC Nick Saban injected badly-needed life into south Florida and the team responded with a 9-7 record, including a 6-game win streak to close the season. Rookie RB Ronnie Brown was brought along slowly but finished with 907 yards and a 4.4 yards-per-carry average. Saban welcomed Williams back and he was the good soldier, splitting carries and keeping his nose clean. QB was largely unsettled and prevented the team from progressing further. New O-line coach Hudson Houck solidified his status as a miracle worker by transforming a poor unit that surrendered 52 sacks in '04 to a much stronger group that allowed only 26 this season and paved the way for the ground game to excel. On the down side, the team committed a franchise-high 132 penalties, which led to many failures on 3rd down, both offensively and defensively. ILB Zach Thomas excelled in the new 3-4 scheme and rookie ILB Channing Crowder proved to be a capable running mate. Rookie CB Travis Daniels (a Saban player from LSU) also became a starter and played well. The Dolphins began free agency by dumping several older, expensive players to free up money to bring in more difference-makers. CBs Sam Madison (NYG) and Reggie Howard, QBs Sage Rosenfels (HOU) and Gus Frerotte (STL), OTs Stockar McDougle (JAX) and Damion McIntosh, OLB Junior Seau, S Tebucky Jones and WR Bryan Gilmore (SF) were all shown the door. The team made an aggressive move in trading a 2nd-round pick in this year's draft for Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper. They hope he'll give them the QB play the franchise has lacked since Dan Marino hung 'em up. However, Culpepper is coming off a severe knee injury and was largely ineffective (6-12 TD/INT ratio) when he did play last year. CBs Will Allen (NYG), Andre Goodman (DET) and Renaldo Hill (OAK) will battle Will Poole for the starting spot opposite Daniels. OLB Sedrick Hodge (NO) joins a unit desperate for playmakers, while O.J. Shelton (CLE) should win the job at left tackle. TE Justin Peelle (SD) provides good depth behind Randy McMichael. The Dolphins have appeared to address their 3 biggest needs with Culpepper, Shelton and the trio of corners. WR, DT and OLB are also areas they would like to improve and the O-line could still use a few more bodies. Miami still has a 1st-rounder (16th) and may trade down to get extra picks. With no glaring needs, they could go the best-available-athlete route or draft an OLB who can start immediately. They also could trade RB Williams for a pick or two but rumors about another failed drug test could end those talks (DEN) immediately. New England Patriots The Patriots entered the 2005 season fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl wins and were looking to become the first team to pull the trifecta. They won the East for the 3rd-straight season but injuries sabotaged the team and they bowed out in Denver in the second round of the playoffs. The secondary was the hardest area hit and the replacements couldn't get the job done. New England ranked 31st in pass defense and 29th in 3rd-down defense, two areas the offense (7th overall, 2nd in passing) couldn't overcome. Despite a non-existent ground game, QB Tom Brady threw for over 4,000 yards (a career first) and solidified his status as a great leader. RB Corey Dillon was injured most of the season and the O-line lost two starters to injury and relied on rookies LG Logan Mankins and LT Nick Kaczur to man the left side. ILB Tedy Bruschi made an inspired return after suffering a stroke in February. His return sparked the Patriots and gave the whole team the boost they needed after some very poor play earlier in the year (41-17 loss to SD and 40-21 loss to IND, both at home). The team also missed on virtually all of their free agent signings (OLB Chad Brown, ILB Monte Beisel, CB Duane Starks and WR David Terrell) but did get some good play from WR-KR Tim Dwight. New England started free agency parting ways with some key veterans from their Super Bowl years, players they will miss. Gone are PK Adam Vinatieri (IND), WR David Givens (TEN), TE Christian Fauria (WAS), RT Tom Ashworth (SEA) and OLB Willie McGinest (CLE). WR Andre' Davis (BUF) was a little-used backup. These players represent a good part of the team's core and won't be easily replaced. Generally the Patriots restock through the draft and in the latter stages of free agency. That strategy failed last season and they usually don't lose the type of players they lost this offseason. The only player they have added is WR Reche Caldwell (SD), a player who didn't live up to his 2nd-round (2002) draft status. At the least, he may replace Davis or Dwight but not Givens. Going into the draft, New England has some serious needs to address. CB is at the top of the list. The Pats need a shutdown corner with size, something they lack now. They also have depth issues and will probably draft at least 2 CBs. PK is also a need but look for them to go the veteran route there. No matter who they sign, he won't be a Vinatieri, one of the best clutch kickers of all time. LB and WR are also near the top of the list. McGinest, while aging, knew the system inside and out and was still productive. His replacement probably isn't on the roster right now. WR also sticks out as a need. Deion Branch is one starter and Troy Brown was resigned. Bethel Johnson hasn't developed like the team had hoped and there is an opening for a big, tough receiver. A SS to groom behind aging Rodney Harrison and a young RB will also be targets for the club. The Pats love to wheel and deal and accumulate picks but usually add picks for the following year. Look for them to add more picks for this draft and try to restock a cupboard that is stating to look a little bare. New York Jets New York had a very successful 2004 season, winning a playoff game at San Diego before PK Doug Brien cost them a game at Pittsburgh and a shot at the AFC title game. 2005 was supposed to be a year they took a step up but they took 10 steps back. Within 7 plays in a Week 3 loss at Jacksonville, the team lost QBs Chad Pennington and Jay Fiedler for the season. That ended their playoff hopes and they had to unretire Vinny Testaverde to get through the year. Injuries took their toll on the backfield and O-line, forcing a game defense to spend too much time on the field. The offense ranked 31st, including 31st in rushing, one year after RB Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing. They also ranked 29th in scoring and 30th in sack pct. allowed. In short, the offense stunk. In their first 12 games, they topped 20 points once, finishing with a 4-12 record. The defense missed NT Jason Ferguson (DAL) and ranked 29th versus the run but the pass defense held up remarkably well, ranking 2nd overall and was led by CB Ty Law's 10 interceptions. DE John Abraham stayed healthy all season and led the team with 10 ½ sacks. Despite trailing in most of their games, the Jets played hard, a tribute to Head Coach Herman Edwards. After the season, however, Edwards forced his way out of town, taking the job in Kansas City formerly held by his mentor, Dick Vermeil. Eric Mangini, a Bill Belichick disciple from New England was hired and immediately forced the resignation of GM Terry Bradway. To say it is unsettled in New York is a definite understatement. The Jets used free agency to finally address the Abraham situation. Tired of franchising him and not willing to give him a long-term deal, New York sent him to Atlanta in a 3-way deal with Denver. They got the 29th pick in the draft for him, more than fair compensation for a player with his inconsistency. Faced with a burgeoning salary cap, they dumped FB Jerald Sowell, LT Jason Fabini, C Kevin Mawae, DT Lance Legree, QB Fiedler and CB Law. They added DE Kimo von Oelhoffen (PIT) ostensibly to replace Abraham, but he's an aging 3-4 DE and probably not the best fit here. Because QB Pennington has had 2 shoulder operations in the last 9 months, they traded for Washington QB Patrick Ramsey. That was a good move and with Brooks Bollinger (56.4 pass completion; 7-6 TD/INT ratio) he gives the Jets insurance if Pennington, who never had good arm strength to begin with, can't make a full recovery. The team is still close to the cap and isn't expected to make any splashy moves in FA until after June 1. Entering the draft, the Jets have a plethora of needs, especially on offense. They own the No.4 pick overall and could really use LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson of Virginia. Ferguson would have been the 3rd-overall pick by Cleveland last season if he would have come out as a junior and he remains an elite prospect. RB has quickly become a need area, as Martin started to show his age last season and rookie Cedric Houston is a power runner that lacks breakaway speed. A big run-stuffing DT is also a need as the team was lost without J. Ferguson last year. The release of Mawae, a multi-time Pro Bowler, has made center a huge need and guards are also needed. Pete Kendall will start somewhere in the interior but he is coming off a poor season. The loss of Law means CB is another spot that needs an upgrade or at least depth. A TE that can block AND catch would also be nice but that might not be addressed until later in the draft. Ramsey is still relatively young so drafting a QB, if he's available, doesn't figure to be in the Jets' plans. There is no RB that warrants being picked at 4 (except USC's Reggie Bush) but he's expected to be off the board then. A trade down would seem to be a likely scenario if D. Ferguson is gone.
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