Sports Betting

Saturday, September 10, 2005

Sports Betting

Cowboys prepare for road game in San Diego
The Dallas Cowboys may have caught a break in Week 1 because they get to play the San Diego Charger minus Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.
The Cowboys are coming off a successful 3-1 preseason and will try to carry that momentum into the regular season on Sunday afternoon.
The Chargers are favored, opening as 4-point chalk, with an opening total of 40.5.
The Chargers will miss Gates, but still boast a potent offense led by running back LaDainian Tomlinson and quarterback Drew Brees.
This game will be the regular season debut for new Cowboys quarterback Drew Bledsoe and will also be the first time receiver Peerless Price puts on a Cowboys uniform after he was signed late last week.
It has been almost four years since these two teams last faced off. The Chargers won that battle 32-21 as a 4-point road favorite.
Some trends to consider: Dallas are 4-10-0 ATS in their last 14 away gamesDallas are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 21 to 30 pointsDallas are 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games after being .5 to 3 point underdogsDallas are 2-4-0 OU in their last 6 gamesSan Diego is 5-0-0 SU in their last 5 games after being 3.5 to 7 point favoritesSan Diego is 5-0-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being 3.5 to 7 point favoritesSan Diego is 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 gamesSan Diego is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
Next up: Dallas home to Washington, Monday, September 19San Diego at Denver, Sunday, September 18


Saints kick off season at Carolina
The New Orleans Saints will have to try and put the problems happening back home behind them as they travel to Carolina to kick their season off against the Panthers on Sunday.
Oddsmakers like the Panthers in this one, as they have pegged Carolina as a 7-point favorite. The over/under sits at 45.5.
Thanks to Hurricane Katrina, the Saints could be playing their entire season on the road. With all the trauma going on back home, it may be asking a lot for the Saints to focus on football and they will definitely be at a disadvantage for the majority of the season.
The Saints, known as classic underachievers and very inconsistent, will turn to Aaron Brookes and Deuce McAllister to improve on their 8-8 record from last year and make some noise in the NFC South.
Steven Davis is listed as probable for Week 1, and other than that the Panthers haven’t been this healthy since Week 1 of last season. The Panthers started last year 1-7 before picking up five straight wins to make a playoff run. The Carolina defense shouldn’t be anything short of dangerous, and if Davis can stay healthy and Jake Delhomme can fire up last year’s numbers, Carolina could make another run at a championship.
Last year the two teams split their head-to-head matchups, with each team winning at the other’s home stadium.
Some trends to consider: New Orleans are 1-7-0 OU in their last 8 gamesNew Orleans are 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 awayNew Orleans are 1-4-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being 7.5 to 10 point underdogsNew Orleans are 4-1-0 SU in their last 5 games after scoring 21 to 30 pointsCarolina is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being 7.5 to 10 point favoritesCarolina is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 gamesCarolina is 7-3-0 OU in their last 10 gamesCarolina is 4-2-0 SU in their last 6 games after being 7.5 to 10 point favorites
Next up: New Orleans home to NY Giants, Sunday, September 18Carolina home to New England, Sunday, September 18


McNabb, Vick set for first Monday nighter
In a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons clash on Monday night in Week 1 of the NFL season.
The Eagles appear to be the team to beat in the NFC again this season with Donovan McNabb ready to lead the offense and disgruntled receiver Terrell Owens on board, for now anyway.
Atlanta gets its chance to prove the bookies wrong, who opened them as 2-point underdogs. The total opened at 42.
The Falcons will continue to go as far as the arm and legs of quarterback Michael Vick will carry them.
The Eagles flew past the Falcons 27-10 in last year’s NFC Championship game as a 4.5-point favorite.
Some trends to consider: Philadelphia is 1-6-0 OU in their last 7 gamesPhiladelphia is 1-5-0 OU in their last 6 games against AtlantaPhiladelphia is 1-4-0 OU in their last 5 awayPhiladelphia is 2-5-1 OU in their last 8 games away against AtlantaAtlanta is 4-2-0 SU in their last 6 games after scoring 10 to 20 pointsAtlanta is 4-2-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being 3.5 to 7 point underdogsAtlanta is 3-7-0 SU in their last 10 games after being 3.5 to 7 point underdogsAtlanta is 3-7-0 OU in their last 10 games
Next up: Philadelphia home to San Francisco, Sunday, September 18Atlanta at Seattle, Sunday, September 18
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Friday, September 09, 2005

Sports Betting

Weekend Sports Preview: September 9There's a full slate of football this weekend as the NFL kicks off its regular season and college football heads into Week 2. As well, the Conference Finals are on tap in the WNBA, and the final race of NASCAR's regular season takes place at Richmond International Speedway. But the top story in sports will be found on the diamond, where the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet in a showdown series. Boston sits four games up on New York in the American League East division going into this series, and have a magic number of 20. The Yankees sit just behind the Cleveland Indians (and just ahead of the Oakland Athletics) for the Wild Card lead. Probable pitchers for this weekend's series are David Wells (12-6) vs. Aaron Small (6-0), Curt Schilling (5-7) vs Shawn Chacon (5-9), and Tim Wakefield (15-10) vs Randy Johnson (13-8). Mike Mussina's sore elbow has him sidelined for this set, while fellow Yankee starters Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano could both be out for the season. Boston and New York have played each other 13 times already this season, with the Yankees holding a 7-6 edge in those games. In seven of those contests the combined score went OVER the posted total, compared to five UNDER plays and a single PUSH. At Yankee Stadium (the site of this weekend's set), the series record is 3-3 so far in 2005, with three OVERs, two UNDERs, and the one PUSH. Vegas oddsmakers currently have the Red Sox at -140 to win the American League East division, while the Yankees trail at +180. For the AL Pennant, the Red Sox lead at +180 odds, and the Yankees are pegged at 5/2. Boston has currently been given 4/1 odds to win the 2005 World Series, and New York sits behind them at 5/1 odds. Baseball not your bag? Then you're probably more interested in the weekend's football schedule, which features 15 NFL matchups (Oakland and New England battled on Thursday night) and a full lineup of college football contests. The biggest games in the NFL this weekend? The Indianapolis Colts kick off their season on the road versus the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, and the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Monday night. Oddsmakers favor the road teams in each of those matchups. The Colts currently sit as a 3-point favorite to defeat the Ravens in their season opener, while the Eagles are pegged as 1-point favorites to get past the Falcons. The total for the Colts/Ravens game sits at 46.5, and the Eagles/Falcons total is listed at 41.5. On the college gridiron, all eyes will be on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as they attempt to defeat the Michigan Wolverines and improve their season record to 2-0. The Irish pounded Pittsburgh 42-21 last weekend, and were rewarded with the No. 20 ranking in this week's poll. The Wolverines, who beat Northern Illinois 33-17 in Week 1, sit at No. 3 in the rankings. The Irish beat the Wolverines in their meeting last season, by a 28-20 score in South Bend. Overall, Michigan is 18-13-1 lifetime versus Notre Dame. Elsewhere, Game 2 of each WNBA Conference Final goes on Saturday, with Game 3 (if necessary) scheduled for Sunday. In the Eastern Conference, the No. 1 Connecticut Sun are taking on the No. 2 Indiana Fever. Over in the Western Conference, the No. 1 Sacramento Monarchs face the No. 3 Houston Comets. And on the track, the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond International Raceway goes on Saturday night as NASCAR ends its regular season. The Rock & Roll 400 is the final chance for drivers to qualify for the Chase for the Nextel Cup, otherwise known as NASCAR's postseason. As it stands, six of the 10 Chase berths have been clinched, with 10 other drivers mathematically in contention for the final four spots.
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Thursday, September 08, 2005

Bingo

bingo invokes images of elderly ladies sitting in a church basement, earnestly scanning a series of cardboard sheets in search of the one number that will earn them a meager jackpot.
Bingo on this scale still remains a staple fundraiser for charitable and civic organizations. But, increasingly, today's commercial bingo halls are becoming full service, high stakes operations, offering a much faster pace, a much wider variety of games, and, of course, enormous jackpots for their loyal players.

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Sports Betting

Chevy Rock & Roll 500 at Richmond
The race for the Nextel Cup comes down to this one last race before the we go into the "last 10" with really only 14 drivers left vying for a shot to be in the top 10. Those drivers are:
1 Tony Stewart 3410 Leader2 Jimmie Johnson 3197 2133 Greg Biffle 3186 2244 Rusty Wallace 3139 2715 Mark Martin 3014 3966 Jeremy Mayfield 2983 4277 Kurt Busch 2982 4288 Carl Edwards 2849 5619 Ryan Newman 2819 59110 Jeff Gordon 2799 61111 Matt Kenseth 2788 62212 Jamie McMurray 2787 62313 Elliott Sadler 2765 64514 Dale Jarrett 2721 689

The top 5 drivers have clinched and Jarrett is all but out and will probably miss his shot to acquire the Cup. Defending series champion Kurt Busch will get his spot in "The Chase" in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 at Richmond by simply starting the race.
The most points a winner can score in a race is 190. The drivers ranked seventh to 14th in the standings are all within reach in points. The drivers 11th through 17th in the standings are all still within reach for 10th-place.
That means 11 drivers will be racing for the four remaining spots.
Jeremy Mayfield is sixth in the standings after finishing 26th. He will clinch his second-straight appearance in "The Chase" if he finishes 39th or better at Richmond, regardless of any other drivers performance.
Carl Edwards finished fourth on Sunday night and is eighth in the standings. He will clinch if he finishes 19th or better at Richmond.
Ninth to 13th in the standings are separated by just a few points. Matt Kenseth, the 2003 series champion, is currently 11th place, which is the elimination position.
Our pick to win the race: Jimmie Johnson
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Sports Betting

The time is right for those who start the sports wagering cycle in College and Pro Football, or those also interested in late season baseball with the playoffs fast approaching. One thing I would bring light to is shopping your lines and getting serious about line value not only in football, but baseball as well. Handicapping the line is the first thing I do in my process of handicapping a game, especially in football.
As I look at the rotation sheets in football, I see a ton of "Fall Numbers". Those lines would be (3,6,7,10,14 point spreads), or a number that the score is likely to fall on. There is no value in fall numbers unless you expect an underdog to win outright getting 3 points, as oddsmakers are quick to post these fall numbers early in the season to minimize risk on their end. You will also notice a ton of 4.5 or 5.5 spreads in the NFL, which are considered bad numbers to lay, as many game ARE likely to land on a fall number this upcoming weekend in pro football.

You can avoid some of these fall number traps by shopping your lines. Most books will adjust their own lines according to their action at their own book, as they want to have as close to 50/50 action on both sides of a side play or totals play. By shopping around either early or late, you take take advantage of an extra 1/2 point here and there. Just having 1 outlet is going to cost an average player 8-10 units a year, I assure you. Most sportsbooks posted on legitimate gaming portals are 110% on the up and up, and have anywhere from 15% to 30% sign-up bonus's in place, so it is well worth the time to invest in having at least 2 if not 3 to 4 outlets to shop a line around. In baseball , on any given day, you can find a favorite laying -133 at one book and -145 at another, and if you are on that favorite, why lay an extra 12-cents on the dollar when you do not have to? It is no different than driving down the street and finding gas at $3.50 a gallon and looking two blocks ahead and seeing it at $3.19 a gallon, where are you going to purchase your gas at?
You may also find that books will offer "early bird" juice, which means you get better than 11 to 10 odds. I see if you play games by Friday night in some cases I have seen, you can lay -105 on a side play in football, or -107 for all NFL games, so take advantage of these options as well. The marketplace for sportsbooks is highly competitive, just as it is in handicapping, but making the right choices and leaving your options open, makes you money at the end of the day, and I consider it sound advice to have every possible edge against the books this fall football season.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Sports Betting

HOME DOGS FALCONS & RAVENS WILL PREVAIL!

Less then seventy two hours folks and the National Football League will kickoff the 2005 season in New England where the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, will try and corral Randy Moss and company, when the Oakland Riders invade!
There is much excitement on the West Coast as Raider fan is ecstatic about the potential explosiveness of the Kerry Collins led offense, but can their defense stop anyone? The Patriots will have a healthy Corey Dillon in the backfield and this cannot be ignored, as this is one of the best backs around.
My attention months ago though began to center on two games that will pit the aging Indianapolis Colts traveling to Maryland to take on the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons entertaining the Philadelphia Eagles in a NCC Championship Game rematch.
The Colts were winless in preseason but that as we have witnessed over the years, has no bearing on how a team performs when the games begin to count for real in the NFL. Peyton Manning sent an NFL record for touchdown passes last year and has his favorite weapons in Harrison, Wayne and James back.
They must however travel to Maryland to take on a ferocious defense that has been strengthened at the cornerback position, with the addition of All Pro Samari Rolle. They have Ray Lewis and a rejuvenated Deion Sanders, who is actually be used on blitz’s in Rex Ryan’s “46� defense.
Very few football insiders care for Ravens quarterback Kyle Boller, but I am a fan of the former California Golden Bear. He is surrounded by some great talent in a more focused Jamal Lewis and Derrick Mason who was picked up from the Titans.
The Colts are favored by 3 which means the bookmakers know the bettors will choose Manning over Boller and why not? Much of the talk in Colts land is how they must beat the Patriots this year. Not being zoned in for the Ravens is a mistake and look for the Colts to be 0-1 next Monday!
The Philadelphia Eagles sure like to keep their names in the newspapers and they have had one hell of an off-season. Owens has been a nightmare, Cory Simon was released along with Freddie Mitchell and McDougalle was shot in Florida.
I look for the Falcons ground game to eat up the Eagles and this will eventually open up the play action for Vick. Atlanta should not be ignored on defense, as they are very quick and their head coach Mora is a defensive specialist.
Teams that lose in the Super Bowl traditionally falter the next year and I look for the same occurrence with the Eagles this fall.
Look for the Falcons to soar on Monday!
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Monday, September 05, 2005

Sports Betting

WEEKEND IN REVIEW FOR 9/3 AND 9/4/05As expected the first weekend in September did not disappoint as the college football season kicked off and provided us with a couple of stunning upsets. A much underrated TCU team was shown no respect by the linemakers and decided to take their anger out on the Sooners of Oklahoma in Norman with a stunning 17-10 outright win.
Meanwhile the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets visited Jordan Haire stadium in Auburn, Alabama and halted the Tigers 15-game unbeaten streak with a very convincing 23-14 victory. The Yellow Jackets were making their first visit to Auburn since 1986.
The USC Trojans decided to take a little trip to Hawaii to work out a few kinks and while there decided to put the boots to June Jones Rainbows. They scored 63 points and it will be interesting to see the line that the boys hang up in Vegas, when underrated Arkansas visits in two weeks. I suspect the Trojans will be at least 21-point favorites and they may be in for a big surprise!
Any hopes that the Cleveland Indians had of catching the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central were squashed by the Minnesota Twins on the weekend as the Tribe lost 2 of 3 to the Twins and the Sox took 4 from the listless Tigers. One has to wonder how long Tiger management will hang in with skipper Alan Trammel and his cronies. Detroit has lost 8 of their past 10 and they are showing know heart!

Meanwhile the Yankees escaped Oakland holding the wild card lead in the AL and believe it or not their much maligned pitching staff was superb after the shellacking they took on Friday. If and that is a huge IF, the Yankees will get in the playoffs with this type of pitching!
Usually when Tiger Woods begins a tournament with a 65, the organizers can pretty well order his nameplate for the trophy, but Woods faltered big time at the Deutsche Bank Championships in Norton, Mass. Heading into the final round the tournament is up for grabs, with 15 golfers within 3 shots of the lead!
With nearly everyone focused on the battle for the final spots in the Chase for the Nextel Cup championship, 20-year-old Kyle Busch stole the show Sunday night with his first career victory. He became the youngest winner in NASCAR's top stock car series, winning the Sony HD 500 in Fontana. California. One familiar face to NASCAR fans who will not qualify for the Chase in two weeks is Dale Earnhardt Jr, whose engine blew and he dropped to 18th in the standings.
In a battle of the Williams sisters, Venus knocked off Serena in the quarter finals at the US Open. But neither Williams is quite at the top of her game. Venus, seeded 10th, is closer, is having won her third Wimbledon title two months ago. Serena has missed much of the year with knee and ankle problems, and said earlier this week that she was at less than 50 percent.
Things were much more orderly for the other seeds Sunday. Top seeds Roger Federer and Maria Sharapova advanced in straight sets, as did the fourth-seeded Clijsters and No. 9 Nadia Petrova. Former U.S. Open champion Lleyton Hewitt got a scare from American Taylor Dent, eking out a 6-3, 3-6, 6-7 (2), 6-2, 7-5 victory.
No. 11 David Nalbandian and No. 15 Domini Hrbaty advanced, and David Sanguinetti won the longest match of the Open so far, beating Thailand's Paradorn Srichaphan 6-3, 4-6, 6-7 (2), 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) in 4 hours, 24 minutes.
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Sunday, September 04, 2005

Sports Betting

Money Management
WHY IS IT NECESSARY TO USE MONEY MANAGEMENT? Well, for one thing it is very important to stay in the game (not go broke!). The professional gambler follows a strict set of rules when wagering. The amateur plunges with a helter skelter style that defies logic. The following floating unit system is one of the most successful money management systems: STEP ONE: Player must determine how much he can afford to lose over the entire season. This should be done for each sport separately. There should never be a limit on how much can be won. By establishing this limit the player now determines how to wager. STEP TWO: Player must establish a unit system of wagering. Player should never wager more than 5% of his limit (bankroll) on any one game. STEP THREE: Player must realize his bankroll will vary day to day, consequently so must the size of his wagers. Let's use a few examples for clarification. Let's say that Joe lives in Las Vegas where he can wager on sports. Joe figures that from the beginning of the college basketball season to the end he will be able to comfortably lose $10,000. This is Joe's risk capital. If he were to invest in the stock market he would have to do the same thing. Now that the loss limit (bankroll) is established, he can proceed to establish a betting plan. Joe figures that he will be able to win between 55% to 70% of his plays. He also knows that he will probably win a higher percentage of his better plays than the weaker ones, so he needs a unit plan. Joe now sets up the following plan. On his top games he will wager 5% of his total bankroll, 4% on his next level selection, 3% on the next, 2% on the next. He feels he will have 4 different ratings. The 5% play he will call a 5 Star, 4% - 4 Star, 3% - 3 Star, 2% - 2 Star. Now that that is established, this is what the betting plan will look like: $10,000 BANKROLL
WAGERING UNITS:
5 Star - SUPER Play or 5% Play4 Star - STRONG Play or 4% Play3 Star - MEDIUM Play or 3% Play2 Star - LIGHT Play or 2% Play
$500 per game (Maximum Play)$400 per game$300 per game$200 per game
(Amount is determined by multiplying total bankroll by % of play) The following is optional, but we do recommend following it. Now comes the tricky part. Joe knows when he wins or loses his bankroll will vary and he sure doesn't want to be betting too much if he is on a cold streak, or for that matter, too little when he's hot! Joe establishes a work sheet so that at the end of each day he will know exactly what his bankroll is. This is what it looks like: Beginning Bankroll $10,000
11/25 Plays5 Star Texas ($500)3 Star Auburn ($300)3 Star Georgia ($300)2 Star Tennessee ($200)2 Star Oklahoma ($200)
ResultsWONLostLostLostLostLost
Money+500-330-330-220-220-600
New Bankroll $9,400
11/26 Plays5 Star Auburns 5 Star Golden State4 Star Seattle3 Star Tulane2 Star Florida
Bet Amount$470*$470$376$282188
Rounded Bet$450$450$400$300$200
*NOTE: Because Joe would have problems betting exactly these amounts he rounds his bets off to the nearest $50 level. The new betting amounts are established by multiplying the game rating by the amount left in the bankroll. If Joe's bankroll were to go up, his bets would go up in proportion. This money management system keeps Joe in the game and allows him to take advantage of hot streaks and protect himself during cold streaks.
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