Sports Betting

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Sports Betting

NFL Gameday: Dec 18The NFL waves goodbye to byes this weekend, as all eight remaining postseason teams will take to the field in an effort to advance to next week's conference championships. The four gridiron games highlight a sports weekend that includes complete slates in the NHL and NBA, and a Saturday of college basketball action jam-packed with ranked teams. The Washington Redskins will kick off Saturday's football schedule when they meet the Seahawks in Seattle at 4:30 pm ET. The Seahawks are favored by 9.5 points at home in this contest, with the game's total sitting at 41.5 points. The Redskins have won six games in a row, including a 17-10 road victory last weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in which Mark Brunell threw for only 41 total yards). At 8:00 pm ET on Saturday the Denver Broncos will get a visit from the defending-champion New England Patriots. Oddsmakers have pegged the Broncos as the favorites in this game, but only by 3 points. The game's total sits at 44 points. New England handily defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars last week by a score of 28-3, putting up 21 points in the second half to secure the win. The early game Sunday (1:00 pm ET) sees the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Indianapolis to play the Super Bowl favorite Colts. Indy is giving up 9.5 points at home in this game, while the contest's total sits at a high 47.5 points. The Steelers beat the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals 31-17 last weekend, knocking QB Carson Palmer out of the game early in the win. And at 4:30 pm ET on Sunday the Chicago Bears will be looking to advance to the conference championship game by beating the visiting Carolina Panthers. The Bears are favored by a field goal in this matchup, with the total sitting at a low 30.5 points. The Panthers tossed a shutout on the road last weekend, beating the New York Giants and Eli Manning by a score of 23-0. Over in the NHL, interim head coaches will be on display in the greater New York area when the New Jersey Devils host the Vancouver Canucks on Friday night and the New York Islanders get a visit from those same Canucks on Saturday night. Devils GM (and temporary coach) Lou Lamoriello has yet to name a new bench boss for his team, while Islanders GM Mike Milbury just fired coach Steve Stirling on Thursday (with Brad Shaw taking over the team for the time being). The area's other team, the Rangers, take on the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. Other games on the schedule on a busy Saturday are Dallas at Boston, Colorado at Philadelphia, San Jose at Montreal, Columbus at Florida, Los Angeles at Buffalo, Phoenix at Toronto, Calgary at Minnesota, and Ottawa at Edmonton. Around the NBA, the New Jersey Nets had their lengthy winning streak snapped this past week, but they'll be looking to stay hot when they play the Grizzlies in Memphis on Friday night, and the Mavericks in Dallas on Saturday night. Their main Atlantic Division foe, the Philadelphia 76ers, will be trying to stay within sight of the division lead when they play the struggling Boston Celtics on Friday night. Elsewhere around the league this weekend, the Miami Heat take a swing through the west with games against the Seattle SuperSonics and Utah Jazz, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers embark on a two-game trip through Phoenix and Portland, the Detroit Pistons get a Saturday visit from the Charlotte Bobcats, the San Antonio Spurs get a Saturday visit from the Memphis Grizzlies, and Kobe Bryant will try for another huge scoring effort when the Los Angeles Lakers play at Golden State. The top-ranked Duke Blue Devils got 27 points from J.J. Redick on Wednesday night as they easily dispatched the No. 23 Maryland Terrapins by a final score of 76-52. The win improved Duke's record to 15-0 on the season (3-0 in the conference), and they'll be going for win No. 16 on the road versus unranked Clemson on Saturday. Maryland next plays Sunday, at home against Wake Forest. Most of the other Top 10 teams play on Saturday as well, with Georgetown at No. 4 Connecticut, No. 3 Villanova at No. 8 Texas, Michigan at No. 7 Illinois, Auburn at No. 2 Florida, SMU at No. 5 Memphis, and Pepperdine at No. 6 Gonzaga. No. 10 Louisville hosts No. 12 Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon, while the other battle of ranked teams on Sunday sees No. 14 Michigan State taking on No. 19 Ohio State.
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Friday, January 13, 2006

Sports Betting

Time to look at the pointspread numbers in Round 1 of the Playoffs, as the Wild card games held true to form for the most part, with the big surprise in my mind, the Redskins winning at Tampa Bay, proving their worth against a team I thought was better. It brings into play the BIGGEST item on anyone's agenda in the Playoffs and handicapping them, turnovers. You simply, at this level, cannot make mistakes with special teams, and turnovers. One must also account now for defense and red zone offense efficiency.
The round 1 ATS numbers are interesting, as I once again look to a respected publication to quote you some interesting facts and figures about this opening round on Saturday and Sunday. Home favorites versus the spread since 1976 are a solid 60-48-3 ATS and home teams versus the spread are 64-49-3 overall. Home teams do have an advantage this time of year, but favorites since 1976 are also 84-31 straight up at home or on road, so it proves the better teams are winning. When teams are favored by 3 points or less in this scenario since 1976, they are only 6-11-1 ATS. Many times in these type of low spread games the teams are evenly matched and just a few big plays will determine the outcome of the entire game, versus the spread and straight up.
Remember when you look at these numbers dating back to 1976, that was also before the age of free agency, and there is more parity in the NFL in these times. If you look at home teams since 1998, they are still a solid value in most cases, at 16-7-1 ATS. Round 1 home teams are Chicago, Seattle, Indy and Denver. I would make a guess that 2 to 3 will win straight up, and 2 or more will cover, however I will make you invest some money to get my plays to find out who! I can tell you it is again, a tale of two tales this Saturday and Sunday. The teams who play the best defense, run the ball the best and turn it over the least amount of times will win their games, bottom line. I also look to the kicking game as a barometer to see, in a tight game who I might place some emphasis one as well. Coaching goes somewhat overlooked, but having a solid coach, with some post season experience also is a big plus, but remember as I eluded to last week, ANYONE playing this weekend is a top shelf team with playmakers everywhere on both sides of the ball and any underdog can win it if given the ball enough times with special teams blunders and turnovers, because no one is here by accident.
We also saw last week that inexperience played a part especially in the Giants and the Bucs games. Chris Simms for the Bucs simply gave it away in the first half, as well as rookie RB Williams who fumbled and it was returned for a TD. In the Giants case, Eli Manning followed in big brothers footsteps in the playoffs, tossing it up for grabs against a good secondary, which resulted in numerous Carolina points. All in all some very good games with a few keys in each match-up, that at least on paper provide opportunities against the line. Keep in mind it boils down to a finite number of items, and hopefully you found some of them here to key in on.
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Thursday, January 12, 2006

Sports Betting

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago BearsPanthers +3 If you are looking for a highflying, gun slinging game, with back and forth action including long runs and deep thrown bombs, you have definitely tuned into the wrong playoff game. What you can expect here is a hard hitting, scheming defensive battle that pits two teams that will refuse to make a mistake. The great defensive minds and teams of John Fox and Lovie Smith will fact off in the battle in cold Chicago and we fully anticipate this game to be a field goad battle which makes the +3 points on the visiting team some good value this weekend. The Panthers have over the past few years absolutely excelled at the role of road underdog while this will be the first time in a long time that the Bears will not only be in the playoffs but has the difficult task of not only defending home field but doing so as a favourite. Although this home favourite is only giving up 3 points for home field this is a team that barely averaged more than 14 points per game on offence, most of which were directly scored by the defence it self or as the result of a good field position from a defensive play. The problem here for the Bears is that they will face an equally tough defence. Although from a statistical standpoint the Panthers are not the Bears equal, form a personnel and scheming perspective we feel the Panthers can play up to par with the Bears and the biggest difference in this game is that Carolina will attacking a very raw QB in Rex Grossman while the Bears will be attacking a seasoned veteran in Jake Delhomme. The Panthers will also feature by far the best playmaker on offence with star wideout and punt returner Steve Smith. Both teams feature good place kickers and because of the cold weather expected they will be called upon often in this game. Look for a very deliberate game plan from both coaching staffs in which the field position game takes precedence when making important play calls. Neither team should move the ball consistently and turnovers will be paramount as well as special teams play. We look for the Bears whom we feel have overachieved this year to make one critical mistake and give up one big play to Smith which should be enough to keep the Panthers inside the number. Overall this game is a toss up and if you played this game 10 times you would get 10 different results. The one consistent thing though would be that whomever scores last would get the win with a field goal and when you have a good road team getting those 3 points, we will play on them every time.
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Monday, January 09, 2006

Sports Betting

NHL Hockey Handicapping

NHL Power Rankings - Week 15The National Hockey League Power Rankings get a late start this season, slotted into the schedule after Monday Night Football finished hogging the sporting spotlight at the beginning of the week. So, instead of 14 weeks of rising-and-falling in the rankings, the 30 teams come into the Week 15 list based on a snapshot of today's NHL standings and a quick look at their recent play. That's good news for the Philadelphia Flyers, who started out slowly but are undefeated in their last 10 games, and the Detroit Red Wings, who have overtaken the hot-starting Nashville Predators and regained their rightful spot atop the Central Division. The news isn't so good for the Ottawa Senators, who would've likely been No. 1 for most of the past 14 weeks but have fallen on hard(ish) times as the rankings finally go to press. As well the Montreal Canadiens, who started out with a bang, have been terrible lately, and the Tampa Bay Lightning, the most recent Stanley Cup champions, have been mediocre as well. Those teams, along with other disappointments like the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks, will have to earn their way up the list starting this week, with past success and preseason hype discounted. And starting out in the Power Rankings basement? The Chicago Blackhawks, the league's coldest team. The Hawks might not have started the season at No. 30 (the Washington Capitals would have been a top contender), but the last rung on the ladder certainly would have been in reach for them back in October. It's not all bad news for Chicago, though, as two other Central Division teams (the St. Louis Blues and the Columbus Blue Jackets) are in striking distance at No. 28 and No. 29, with neither looking ready to bust out a long winning streak. Here is the Week 15 edition of the NHL Power Rankings. 01 - Philadelphia Flyers (Last Week --)There's no timetable on Robert Esche's return to the lineup, but Antero Niittymaki has run up a 16-4-4 record so far. 02 - Detroit Red Wings (Last Week --)Boast the best record in the Western Conference, and have been stellar at home and on the road so far this season. 03 - Carolina Hurricanes (Last Week --)Have only lost once in their past 10 contests, and have a comfortable lead over the Thrashers in the Southeast. 04 - Ottawa Senators (Last Week --)It's not so rosy for the Senators with Daniel Alfredsson, Martin Havlat, and Jason Spezza all sidelined due to injury. 05 - Los Angeles Kings (Last Week --)Pavol Demitra missed Saturday's game with a bruised leg, and is questionable versus the Mighty Ducks on Monday. 06 - Calgary Flames (Last Week --)Leading scorer Jarome Iginla is averaging under a point-per-game so far, but it hasn't kept the Flames from winning. 07 - Buffalo Sabres (Last Week --)No deal for Martin Biron as Ryan Miller gets the bulk of the work; might miss their best opportunity to make a trade. 08 - Toronto Maple Leafs (Last Week --)Eight wins in their past 10 games has them moving up the Eastern Conference standings. Lindros, Antropov still out. 09 - Dallas Stars (Last Week --)A new contract for Marty Turco removes that potential headache; now they have to concentrate on catching L.A. 10 - Nashville Predators (Last Week --)Are finding it difficult to keep pace with the Red Wings in the Central. Scott Walker's return should help the offense. 11 - Edmonton Oilers (Last Week --)Neither Ty Conklin nor Jussi Markkanen have grabbed the No. 1 job, which makes their good record a bit surprising. 12 - Colorado Avalanche (Last Week --)With all the talk of their struggles this season, they're in the playoff picture and not too far back of the division leader. 13 - Vancouver Canucks (Last Week --)Only three wins in their past 10 games has the hot stove buzzing. Jose Theodore has been mentioned several times. 14 - New York Rangers (Last Week --)Fallen off considerably in the past two weeks, ceding the division lead to the Flyers. Jagr still putting up big numbers. 15 - Atlanta Thrashers (Last Week --)Ilya Kovalchuk has a chance to win the Art Ross Trophy this season; if only the Thrashers could prevent more goals. 16 - Minnesota Wild (Last Week --)Quietly over the .500 mark, with seven wins in their past 10 games. Manny Fernandez leads the league in GAA. 17 - Anaheim Mighty Ducks (Last Week --)Finally were able to deal winger Petr Sykora, sending him to the Rangers in exchange for d-man Maxim Kondratiev. 18 - New Jersey Devils (Last Week --)Not moving up yet with Lou Lamoriello behind the bench, but he did make the decision to ditch Alexander Mogilny. 19 - Tampa Bay Lightning (Last Week --)The defending champions are sitting in third place in their division, and are barely holding on to the final playoff spot. 20 - Montreal Canadiens (Last Week --)Beat the Senators on Saturday afternoon during Hockey Day in Canada festivities; will that win turn the ship around? 21 - San Jose Sharks (Last Week --)The Pacific cellar-dwellers have a lot of work to do in the second half of the year, but Joe Thornton will help them out. 22 - Phoenix Coyotes (Last Week --)The Yotes' record is dwindling back to the .500 mark, which would be a decent result based on preseason estimates. 23 - Boston Bruins (Last Week --)Six wins in their past 10 may have warded off a coaching change, but Super Joe's efforts are making them look bad. 24 - Florida Panthers (Last Week --)Have picked it up a bit of late, but would need a scorching second half of the season to get into the playoff picture. 25 - New York Islanders (Last Week --)With Rick DiPietro and Garth Snow both hurting, the Islanders have been forced to dip into the AHL well for goalies. 26 - Pittsburgh Penguins (Last Week --)What do you think if you're Sidney Crosby and you're getting taunted for being immature by Ilya Kovalchuk (age 22)? 27 - Washington Capitals (Last Week --)Next thing you know, Crosby will be taken to task by the Caps' Alexander Ovechkin for being a showboat on the ice. 28 - St. Louis Blues (Last Week --)They'll still be kinda bad with Keith Tkachuk in the lineup, but they'll be a bit more competitive once he finally returns. 29 - Columbus Blue Jackets (Last Week --)We don't care how well Sergei Fedorov is playing defensively, he should be putting up more points than he has been. 30 - Chicago Blackhawks (Last Week --)Have more points than the Jackets and Blues, but no team in the league has been worse over t
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Sunday, January 08, 2006

Sports Betting

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants Panthers - Carolina enters this game with some key players listed as questionable. RB DeShaun Foster (toe) missed practice on Wednesday, as did FB Brad Hoover (ankle). With both backfield starters hurting, look for RB-FB Nick Goings to get plenty of playing time. He has gotten the job done in the past but lacks Foster's explosiveness. G Tutan Reyes (toe) also missed practice but backup rookie Evan Mathis has gotten his feet wet this year and there wouldn't be a huge dropoff if he has to play. MLB Dan Morgan (shoulder) did practice and is expected to play this week. OLB Brandon Short (knee) also missed practice. LB Chris Draft has played extensively in recent weeks and figures to get extra time this week as well. A former starter in Atlanta, Draft has played well this year and will play if Short can't go. Backup SS Jermaine Hardy was placed on IR with a hamstring injury. Giants - New York has gotten some key players back from injury but has had more players added to the list. DT William Joseph (ankle) practiced on Wednesday and is probable for this Sunday. His return will help the run defense. His backup, DT Fred Robbins, is doubtful this week with a hamstring injury. He missed practice, as did backup DL Eric Moore (hamstring), who is also listed as doubtful. Backup WR Tim Carter is questionable with a hip injury but did practice. TE Jeremy Shockey (ankle) was limited in practice on Wednesday but hopes to do more on Thursday. HC Tom Coughlin is proceeding as if Shockey will play. LB Reggie Torbor (hamstring) missed practice and while listed as questionable, isn't expected to play. MLB Antonio Pierce (ankle) is out for this week and the team also placed LB Roman Phifer on IR with a knee injury. This has sapped the team's depth at LB and they are expected to add a player or two to the unit. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Steelers - Pittsburgh has been very healthy all season and has placed only 1 player on IR this season. QB Ben Roethlisberger (thumb), OLB James Harrison (heel), CB Chidi Iwuoma (shoulder) and Deshea Townsend (knee) are all listed as probable this week and all are expected to play. Backup DL Travis Kirschke has been sidelined with an injured back in recent weeks and missed practice on Wednesday. He is listed as questionable. Backup OLB Andre Frazier has been bothered by a hamstring injury the past month but was able to practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. Bengals - Very few teams have enjoyed the good health that Cincinnati has had this season. For their first playoff game in 15 years, they have 7 players listed as probale and all are expected to play. FB Nick Luchey (knee), WR Chris Henry (back), LT Levi Jones (shoulder), C Eric Ghiaciuc (back), DT Bryan Robinson (foot), DL Shaun Smith (knee) and CB Deltha O'Neal (knee) are the players on the list but as stated above, all are expected to play this Sunday.
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