Sports Betting

Friday, February 03, 2006

Sports Betting

If you take a gander at the college basketball media polls these days, things are looking pretty familiar.
In both the Associated Press and the USA Today/ ESPN polls, UConn is ranked No. 1 and Duke is No. 2. Next week, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the rankings were reversed with Duke at No. 1 and UConn at No. 2.
The NCAA, however, is telling a much different story. On Wednesday, the NCAA released its official Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) to the public for the first time ever. Developed in 1981, the RPI is a computerized ranking system based on mathematical formulas and statistics. Similar to the BCS, the system analyzes a team’s strength of schedule and how it performs in that schedule.
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The RPI is one of the tools the NCAA committee uses to select teams and determine seedings for the championship tournament. The NCAA announced last week it would begin making the RPI public.
Interestingly, UConn did not debut in the RPI’s top spot. In fact, it was not even close. Instead, the Huskies logged in at No. 9. Meanwhile, Duke debuted at No. 1 with Memphis at No. 2, followed by Villanova at No. 3.
Duke’s ranking is hard to argue. The Blue Devils currently lead the ACC with an unbeaten conference record of 7-0. Overall they are 19-1 SU with their lone loss coming to resurgent Georgetown.
But Memphis at No. 2 is somewhat curious. The Tigers are 19-2 overall and are unbeaten at 5-0 in conference play, but they are in the less-competitive C-USA. The Huskies are 19-1 overall and 7-1 in the more physical and more talented Big East.
The difference between C-USA and the Big East can be demonstrated, to a degree, by how Louisville is performing this season.
Last year, Louisville beat Memphis to capture the C-USA title. This year, the Cardinals are in the Big East, and as of Wednesday they were 14-7 with six of those losses coming to conference opponents. Granted, the Cards did lose a lot of players in the offseason.
What has likely hurt UConn in the RPI was its lone loss, which came to unranked Marquette (15-6 SU, 5-3 conf.) in early January.
The Tigers’ two losses, on the other hand, were against top-10 opponents: Duke and No. 7 Texas (the Longhorns debuted at No. 14 on the RPI).
This week’s RPI includes all games through Monday, Jan. 30. Thus, UConn’s RPI ranking should improve next week based on their 80-76 homecourt victory over No. 9 Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
However, they’ll first have to get by No. 22 Indiana, who they play Saturday in a non-conference game on the road (1 p.m. ET, CBS). The Hoosiers, who debuted at No. 21 in the RPI, are 12-5 overall and 4-3 against Big Ten opponents.
The Hoosiers are arguably overrated when you consider they lost to Indiana St., a team that’s 8-11 overall and has a miserable 1-10 record in the lightly-regarded Missouri Valley Conference.
Furthermore, one of Indiana’s conference losses came to Minnesota, which is next to last in the Big Ten at 1-6.
Against the spread, UConn has been kind to backers so far this season sporting a 9-6 record. The Hoosiers, however, have been nasty going 5-9 ATS as of Wednesday.
Both teams have seen more games dip below the posted total. The Huskies have seen only six of 15 go OVER; the Hoosiers have seen just four of 13 top the total.
UConn has the top-scoring offense in the Big East (81.8 ppg) and the eighth-ranked defense in the 16-team conference (63.2 ppg).
The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have one of the weakest-scoring offenses and one of the strongest defenses in the Big Ten.
Leading the way for the Huskies has been physical forward Rudy Gay. The 6-foot-9 sophomore is averaging 15.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.1 steals.
Gay has reportedly been making improvements and was a big factor in UConn’s win over the Panthers on Tuesday netting 22 points, three rebounds and four steals.
For the Hoosiers, forward Marco Killingsworth has the hot hand averaging a team-leading 19.2 ppg (third overall in the Big Ten) and 7.5 rpg.
A transfer from Auburn, the 6-foot-8 senior has been the Big Ten Player of the Week three times this season. Considered one of the nation’s best low-post players, Killingsworth is in the running for Big Ten Player of the Year.
Other notable games on Saturday:
Florida State at No. 2 Duke (12:00 p.m. ET)No. 3 Memphis at Rice (7:05 p.m. ET)Marquette at No. 4 Villanova (2:00 p.m. ET, ESPN Full Court)Santa Clara at No. 5 Gonzaga (11:00 p.m. ET)Penn State at No. 6 Illinois (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN Full Court)Kentucky at No. 7 Florida (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)Texas A&M at No. 8 Texas (3:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
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