Sports Betting

From a betting point of view, all didn't go as planned for our group at the 2005 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. This was surprising, considering the results were actually quite predictable.
Only two favorites won, but our second and third choices won or finished in the money often enough to allow us to make a 25 percent profit playing against the toughest handicappers in the world. But what we really wanted, like everyone else, was a piece of the Ultra Pick 6.
Here's where we hit and missed and why.
Race 3 - Alberto VO5 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
In the Juvenile Fillies we took a stand against Folklore, who had galloped away from a short-priced stopper in her prep, the Grade 1 Matron at Belmont. We thought she was a vulnerable underlay at $2.35-1 and went looking for value elsewhere. We found it - sort of.
Wild Fit was our first choice to upset at 7-1. We thought she might rebound back to the form that had won her the Del Mar Debutante two starts back, after coming up flat in her final prep race, the Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. Original Spin was our second choice at 4-1. She had been working well and was coming into the race off a big win in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie at Arlington Park. She was also getting first-time Lasix and a big rider switch to Jerry Bailey.
Folklore vied for the lead as expected, but she never did get the serious pressure we had been hoping for from Adieu in the stretch. With no competition in the drive, Folklore should have romped home by five. Instead, at least one of our horses made it close - despite all kinds of trouble.
Wild Fit broke outwards, dropped back early, advanced into traffic on the turn, steadied, came out wide for the drive and finally gave it a gallant effort to finish within 1 1/4 lengths of the winner. She was the winner with a good trip.
Our other horse, Original Spin, was bumped at the start but managed to get a decent trip to finish third 4 3/4 lengths back of Wild Fit. She just wasn't good enough.
Folklore paid $6.70, $4.20, $2.70 across the board and topped a 1-10 Exacta that paid $54.50, a 1-10-2 Trifecta that returned $181.50, and a 1-10-2-9 Superfecta of $1,762 with Ex Caelis fourth. We, of course, had none of the aforementioned exotics. Folklore had also knocked us out of the Pick 3 and early Pick 4.
We were in a hole already.
Race 4 - Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
The Juvenile was supposed to be the coronation of the undefeated First Samurai. At even money we thought he was horrible value, so we used a couple of others instead.
We liked Stevie Wonderboy at 9/2 off his impressive Del Mar Futurity romp and his good works at Belmont leading up to Breeders’ Cup Day; Private Vow at 10-1, off his Belmont Futurity win and his stamina pedigree; and Sorcerer's Stone at 7-1, based on his Arlington Washington Futurity score and his trainer's Breeders' Cup record. We also liked Henny Hughes a little at 9-1, based on his speed and heart.
We hit the Exacta when Stevie Wonderboy overcame a rough start and showed good courage down the stretch to put away a tough Henny Hughes in the drive with a late dig-in effort, finally drawing out to win by 1 1/4 lengths. It was a further two lengths back to First Samurai, who made a bid in the stretch before tiring to finish third. Brother Derek completed the Superfecta, finishing 5 1/4 lengths behind First Samurai after making a mild bid.
We might have run 1-2 if it had not been for the fact that Private Vow's left rein broke down the backstretch, forcing him out of contention. Sorcerer's Stone had no excuse. Henny Hughes ran a huge race.
Stevie Wonderboy paid $11.00, $5.90, $3.80 across the board and helped us get a little of our money back, topping a 12-10 Exacta of $105.50 and a 12-10-9 Trifecta of $229. The Superfecta 12-10-9-13 paid $7,051, the Daily Double of 1-12 returned $45.60 and the Pick 3 of 6-1-12 paid off at $252.
A minor comeback but a start.
Race 5 - Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
If there was one race that killed us on the day it was the Filly and Mare Turf. It knocked us out of the Ultra Pick 6 in the first leg.
We thought favorite Ouija Board was an underlay at $2.30-1 and went looking elsewhere for value. But we looked too hard and missed the obvious when lone speed Intercontinental went wire to wire. We thought she'd get pressure. We thought she didn't have the class. We thought the softer turf would get the best of her in the drive.
We also forgot the most important thing - that lone speed is dangerous - always. And we weren't the only ones who missed it - Intercontinental went off at 15-1.
Intercontinental led the whole way and ended up holding on to win by 1 1/4 lengths over a hard-trying Ouija Board, who finished a neck in front of a rallying Film Maker, who had clipped heels and steadied early in the race.
Intercontinental paid $32.20, $13.00, $8.40 across the board and set up some excellent exotic payoffs including a 10-13 Exacta of $131.50, a 10-13-2 Trifecta of $1,167, and a 10-13-2-7 Superfecta that paid $5,004 with Wonder Again fourth. The Pick 3 of 1-12-10 also paid well at $682.
We got nothing.
Race 6 - TVG Breeders’ Cup Sprint
The Sprint was expected to be one of the best races of the day and it was.
We used less than even money favorite Lost In The Fog, but also thought the move up in class might provide enough pressure to get him beat. We were right, but we picked the wrong horses to beat him.
Actually, we had one of the right horses, but fell victim to racing luck when our first upset choice ran into trouble late. Taste of Paradise, a huge overlay at 12-1, ran the exact same race he ran in winning his prep, the Grade 1 Vosburgh at Belmont Park, but couldn't find room late behind winner Silver Train, who was also 12-1. Garrett Gomez, the rider of Taste Of Paradise, claimed foul against the winner, but it didn't stand up, leaving Silver Train as the official winner.
Lost In the Fog, who had a bumpy start, advanced four wide to take over passing the quarter pole, but had nothing left from mid stretch home. Silver Train made a good move to take over passing the eighth pole and held on late to defeat Taste Of Paradise by a head. Lion Tamer, who stumbled at the break and was pinched back, rallied belatedly for third, three lengths behind Taste Of Paradise and a neck in front of Attila's Storm. Lost In The Fog faded to finish seventh.
Silver Train returned $25.80, $10.40, $8.10 across the board. Those (not our group) holding the Exacta combination of 3-1 were well rewarded with a payoff off $215.50. The Trifecta 3-1-5 paid $1,593 and the Superfecta 3-1-5-2 returned an incredible $35,358. The Pick 3 of 12-10-3 returned $2,371 and the early Pick 4 of 1-12-10-3 paid $13,162.
Now down to about 10 percent of what we started with, mainly due to bad racing luck, it was time for a come back. Race 7 - Net Jets Breeders’ Cup Mile
We liked two horses in the Mile to defeat the heavily favored Leroidesanimaux. He was a deserving favorite at $1.35-1, but had drawn a tough outside post over a soft turf course and we thought that might be enough to get him beat.
Our top two selections were Artie Schiller at 5-1 and Funfair at 12-1. Artie Schiller had an exceptional racing record and was trained by one of the best young trainers in the world in Jimmy Jerkens. He'd also been unlucky not to win his previous start in the Grade 2 Kelso at Belmont Park. Funfair snuck up the rail inside another horse to beat him in that race and Artie Schiller never saw him coming.
We thought Funfair, who was undefeated in North America in three starts, might try sneak up the rail again in the Mile. He seemed to find ways to win in his previous races. It was not to be however, as Funfair broke down on the backstretch and was pulled up.
Artie Schiller on the other hand, ran a huge race. Guided off the inside late in the race to take the lead passing the sixteenth pole, he dug in to put away Leroidsanimaux in the drive to the wire. The latter was game in defeat after an outside trip and a good stretch bid, but finally succumbed to the winner by three-quarters of a length. It was only a nose back to 14-1 Gorella, who had a brutal trip but who still rallied late to beat troubled fourth place finisher Whipper by a head.
We bet both Funfair and Artie Schiller to win, but keyed only Funfair in our late Pick 4. So we were already out of the Pick 4, but did manage to get a little of our money back.
Artie Schiller paid $13.20, $5.00, $3.90 across the board, topping a 2-11 Exacta of $38.80. Gorella made the 2-11-8 Trifecta pay $504 and Whipper helped the Superfecta of 2-11-8-3 pay $7,021. The Pick 3 of 10-3-2 returned $2,974, thanks to longshot Intercontinental.
Our win money on Artie Schiller had put us on the comeback trail.
Race 8 - Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Distaff
This was our race of the day! We liked two horses to win - Happy Ticket at 9/2 and Pleasant Home at (and I couldn't believe this) 30-1!
Happy Ticket had run a big race in her final prep at Belmont park in the Grade 1 Beldame behind Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite Ashado, and we thought she was sitting on a big race. We also liked Pleasant Home for three reasons: her trainer Claude McGaughey III had a stellar record at the Breeders' Cup; she was a legitimate rallier coming into the race off a wide trip over speed favoring track at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Spinster, and Keeneland preps had produced a very high percentage of Distaff winners. We also thought Ashado would get pressure and set the race up for a rallier.
The only other horse we liked at all was 11-1 Society Selection, who was a trainer play with Giant Killer H. Allen Jerkens at the controls.
As it turned out, Ashado ran a big race to overcome trouble on the backstretch, but Pleasant Home ran the race of her life, making a big wide move that carried her to an open lead in the stretch. She then drew off to win by 9 ¼ lengths! Society Selection finished gamely to take second by a neck from Ashado, who finished third, 2 1/4 lengths in front of 9/2 Stellar Jayne.
Our first choice Happy Ticket made a mild move on the turn and flattened out, costing us the Trifecta, but we had a little win money on Pleasant Home, who paid $63.50, $25.60, $13.40 across the board. We also hit the Exacta of 11-1, which paid $692. The Trifecta, of 11-1-3, which we missed, returned $3,453. The Superfecta 11-1-3-2 returned $20,363 and the Pick 3 of 3-2-11 paid $8,668.
We'd missed the Pick 4 by keying Funfair instead of Artie Schiller in the first leg, but we were alive on numerous Pick 3 tickets with a 30-1 shot and a chance to get out for the day!
Race 9 - John Deere Breeders’ Cup Turf
The Turf looked like the most wide-open race of the day. Our first choice was Better Talk Now at 8-1, based on his proven record at the distance in Grade 1 company. We didn't like Shakespeare at 4-1 or English Channel at 11-1. Shakespeare appeared to lack seasoning and English Channel wouldn't go by a horse in a morning workout, leading us to think that he wouldn't go by Shakespeare when the pair ran 1-2 in the Grade 1 Turf Classic run at Belmont Park on Oct. 10.
Also, by that time we had figured out that the turf wasn't as soft as it was said to be, but it was soft enough to help the European contingent.
We had used three Europeans on our Pick 3 ticket along with Better Talk Now, including 9-1 Shirroco, 7/2 favorite Azamour, and Arc de Triomphe third place finisher Bago at 9/2. We also threw in Fourty Niner's Son at almost 11-1.
It wasn't close.
Shirocco, trained by master trainer Andre Fabre, took advantage of a perfect trip under jockey Christophe Soumillon to take over from Better Talk Now’s pacesetting rabbit Shake The Bank nearing the 3/8ths pole, turned back a dig-in bid from 16-1 Ace in early to mid stretch, and drew out late to win by 1 3/4 lengths over that one. Favored Azamour overcame trouble on the turn to rally and get within a neck of Ace at the wire. Bago also overcame traffic trouble on the turn, but could do no better than fourth, 3/4 lengths behind Azamour.
The winner returned $19.60, $11.80, $4.70 across the board, topping a 2-6 Exacta of $296.50 and a 2-6-5 Trifecta of $1,560. The Superfecta of 2-6-5-3 returned $4,694 and the Pick 3 of 2-11-2, (which we missed and should have had) returned $4,280.
Our first choice Better Talk Now had made mild move four wide on the turn before flattening out and costing us in the exotics - but we were still alive on our Pick 3 to four horses in the Classic!
Race 10 - The Breeders’ Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge
We thought the Classic was a four-horse race. We were wrong.
We liked favorite Saint Liam based on his classy performance in the Grade 1 Woodward, but were a little concerned about his ability to get the distance. So we also used 8-1 Starcraft based on his classy European form, first time Lasix and the huge rider switch to Pat Valenzuela; 9-1 Oratorio, also based on his classy European form; and 5/2 Borrego, who had run an unbelievable race to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (and that race did turn out to be unbelievable when Borrego showed nothing in the Classic).
Saint Liam took advantage of a perfect ride by Jerry Bailey to stalk a forced pace and wear down 10-1 Flower Alley in a long (heart attack) drive, finally drawing out late to win by a length over that one. Flower Alley hung in and battled to deep stretch before succumbing the favorite, but bested 14-1 rallier Perfect Drift for the place by 1 1/2 lengths. Super Frolic, at 69-1, overcame a bad stumble at the gate to rally for fourth, only a neck back of Perfect Drift, and he might have won the race with a clean trip!
The winner paid $6.80, $5.10, $4.20 across the board. The 13-9 Exacta paid $62 and the Trifecta 13-9-5 paid $501. Thanks to 69-1 Super Frolic, the Superfecta 13-9-5-7 returned $12,636. The late Daily Double of 2-13 returned $76. The late Pick 4 of 2-11-2-13, (which we should have had) returned $17,303.
Nobody had the Ultra Pick 6 of 10-3-2-11-2-13, which paid $90,325 for five out of six winners, but guess who had the late Pick 3 of 11-2-13, which paid $2,045? We did! And a tidy 25 percent profit on the day!
With a little racing luck and a few mental adjustments we MIGHT have gotten rich.
Next year!
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