Sports Betting

Saturday, February 11, 2006

College Basketball Betting

March Madness is looming on the horizon and for millions of bettors that means those crazy bracket pools that show up at every office and your local watering hole. Most folks don’t so their homework and simply pick the school whose name they fancy, while a small contingent actually takes the time too find out who is hot and who is not entering the tournament.
One school who over the years has been front and center in the mix, yet is struggling big time is the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. They have lost seven straight and coach Paul Hewitt has decided to bench three starters as they head to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles. Mario West, Lewis Clinch and center Theotis Tarver, will replace D’Andre Bell, Zam Fredrick and Jeremis Smith when the game begins and the players held a meeting this week, to rededicate themselves to finishing strongly.
Very rarely will you see a team like Tech listed as an underdog by double digits yet the line makers are handing you 11 tonight, even though Tech has covered all three games where they were huge dogs. At Boston College they were +12.5 yet they lost by 2, against NC State they were +11.5 and lost by 9 and at Michigan State they were +13 and lost by just 2. Lastly, GT has won the last 3 in this series and in their last 4 conference road games, the average margin of defeat was less than 7 points, so there is a strong argument for GT here.
On the flip side you have to ask yourself why the guys who make all the money in Vegas and that would be the linemakers are hanging such a huge line. FSU is just 2-4 in their past six and are coming off an emotional loss to Duke. Only once this year the Seminoles were huge favorites and they failed to cover. GT has also won the last three in this series and in their four conference road games to date, the average margin of defeat is only 7 points.
It looks like the entire sports betting world will be on GT as the line has gone from -11 down to -10 as I sit at my computer. The smart guys have all these statistics at their fingertips when they establish these lines and they do not make a habit of being wrong on a consistent basis. With GT covering on the road of late they know that John Q Public will be all over the dog and I will run the other way and lay the points with Florida State!
Another game that looks like the public will jump all over the dog will take place tonight in the city of the Super Bowl Champions as the 13th ranked Pittsburgh Panthers play host to the 10th ranked West Virginia Mountaineers. WV has won the past two games is this series dubbed the “Backyard Brawl� and are 7-3 against the point spread the past 10 games. Pittsburgh is 5-5 against the spread the past 10 games and has lost their last two. The math here is quite simple as the public will run with what they will perceive as a +5 gift from Santa Claus and take the higher ranked WV and their exciting 3-point shooting attack. I’m headed in the other direction as I look for the Panthers to be very fired up and shutdown the underdog Mountaineers!
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