Sports Betting

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Sports Betting

Super Bowl Handicapping - Betting Trends
Super Bowl trends: They're magically delicious.Everyone is looking for that lucky green clover or purple horseshoe that will rake in the cash come Super Bowl Sunday. The betting public will bite into just about any tasty-looking trend that gets put on the table. Quarterbacks who wear No. 8 are a perfect 5-0 at the big game! Surely that makes Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle Seahawks a lock for this Sunday at Ford Field. Not so fast. The best handicappers understand that some wagering trends are all sugar and no riboflavin. For example, consider this fact: The NFC is 21-15-3 against the spread at the Super Bowl. What does that bode for Sunday? Well, once upon a time, the NFC was king. Now the balance of power has shifted to the AFC, which is 6-3 straight up since 1997. But thanks in large part to the public hopping on the AFC bandwagon, the junior conference went just 4-3-2 ATS during that span, dropping the cash the last three years in a row. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now the "public team" and 4-point faves against a Seattle squad that itself was part of the AFC until 2002. Trying to divine Sunday's result from long-term conference trends is clearly a fool's errand. Here are some trends that may hold a bit more water when it comes to Super Bowl XL. Note that some point to a Pittsburgh victory, while others herald a 'Hawks win. - The team with the higher playoff seed is 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowl games.- The "over" is 15-8 since totals arrived on the scene in 1982, and 9-4 in the past 13 games.- Teams making their Super Bowl debuts are 9-14-1 ATS.- The Super Bowl favorite is 6-3-2 ATS when the game is played indoors, and the "over" is 5-3-1.- Underdogs of four points or under are 7-4-1 ATS.- Super Bowl favorites and underdogs are dead even at 18-18-3 ATS, including 7-7-2 in the past 16 years. But underdogs have cashed in the last four games in a row.
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