Sports Betting

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Sports Betting

AFC playoff picture
As the divisional leaders expand their lead, the playoff picture gets clearer. But just what is that playoff picture? Sure, you can look at the standings and get a vague idea of who will be in the playoffs. Indianapolis is a lock, New England’s in a weak division, as is Seattle. But what about the other teams? The teams that won’t win the division? Who could sneak into the playoffs?
Today we’re looking at teams that aren’t in playoff contention right now, but could appear in that wild-card slot in the future.

First, let’s eliminate the teams that are obviously going to make the playoffs. For these teams, it’s essentially a guarantee.
Indianapolis Colts (10-0) - they have a 3 game lead in their division, haven’t been beaten, and only need 4 wins in their last six games to clinch home-field advantage, never mind just a playoff spot (barring the Broncos running the table of course).
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) - they need one more win and a St. Louis loss, and then they’ve won their division. Well the St. Louis loss might not come for two or three weeks, Seattle is going to make the playoffs.
New England Patriots (6-4) - they’re in what very well could be the weakest division in football besides the NFC North. They have a two game lead over their nearest competitor (Buffalo Bills), and they still have to play Buffalo, the weak New York Jets, and Miami. Kansas City and Tampa Bay could cause a problem, but the Patriots should make the playoffs.
Those teams have pretty much etched their name in the playoff bracket. A case could be made for the Denver Broncos, but they’re in a very good division, so it’s unlikely.
Now let’s eliminate the teams that have no shot at making the playoffs, or the shot is so unlikely they may as well be done.
Miami Dolphins (3-7)New York Jets (2-8)Cleveland Browns (4-6)Baltimore Ravens (3-7)Houston Texans (1-9)Tennessee Titans (2-8)Oakland Raiders (4-6)Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)Green Bay Packers (2-8)New Orleans Saints (2-8)St. Louis Rams (4-6)Arizona Cardinals (3-7)San Francisco 49ers (2-8)
None of those teams will make the playoffs.
Now let’s look conference by conference at the teams vying for those playoff spots.
AFC
The AFC is an extremely competitive conference, and as such, a difficult one to predict. To get a better look at the playoff picture, first you pick the divisional winners, and then move onto the wild card.
AFC East - New England Patriots (6-4)No team is going to beat the Patriots for the divisional title, so that’s one playoff spot.
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3), Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)Pittsburgh’s schedule isn’t that friendly - they still have to play Indianapolis (at the RCA Dome), Cincinnati and Chicago. Their last three games are against the Vikings, the Browns and the Lions, and all three of those should be wins.
Cincinnati’s schedule is slightly better. The only winning teams they have left are the Steelers and the Chiefs, and the Chiefs are in the last week of the season, when Kansas City’s season might already be over.
Divisional Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts (10-0)Jacksonville won’t be able to catch the Colts, so they’re fighting for that last wild-card spot.
AFC West - Denver Broncos (8-2)It’s very unlikely that either San Diego or Kansas City will catch the Broncos, leaving them with the division title, and the Chargers and Chiefs fighting for that wild-card spot.
Wild Card:
Cincinnati, Jacksonville, San Diego, and Kansas City are all left fighting for the last wild-card spot. Cincinnati has a fairly easy schedule, and should finish the season at 11-5 or 12-4.
The Jaguars schedule is softer than most pillows - they play Arizona, Cleveland, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Houston, and Tennessee. Indianapolis should be the only team that beats them, giving them a 12-4, maybe 11-5 record.
San Diego does not have a nice schedule. They have Washington, Oakland, Miami, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Denver. Miami is the only game that jumps out as an easy win, and that might not be so easy. They’d have to run the table to make the playoffs, and that’s not going to happen. They’re out of the playoffs.
That leaves Kansas City. If you thought San Diego’s schedule was hard, you haven’t seen anything yet. The Chiefs get to play New England, Denver, Dallas, New York Giants, San Diego and Cincinnati. Every game they play is against a playoff caliber team. They’re out of the playoffs.
Here’s how the AFC playoffs look, barring a small miracle:
Home Field Advantage: Indianapolis Colts1st Round Bye: Denver BroncosDivisional Winner: Pittsburgh SteelersDivisional Winner: New England PatriotsWild Card: Cincinnati BengalsWild Card: Jacksonville Jaguars
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