Sports Betting

NFL Football Strategies
1. Get to know your teams
Study the teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know their home and road records, and evaluate them objectively. Pay attention to changes in the quality of a team from one season to the next as players get older and changes occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary caps and free agency make it more difficult for teams to stay at the top for long periods of time, so major improvement or decline from season to season is common place in professional sports.
2. Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential, but at other times may play well above what is indicated by their overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how important a game is to a team. If the team has already clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly motivated. A team out to avenge a defeat earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
3. Don't chase your losses
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't panic and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your handicapping methods and reduce your betting amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you start winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't go overboard. Unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an end.
4. Bet with your head, not your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and remember that you will only find value betting situations in a small number of games. Betting the entire NCAA or NFL schedule every week is a risky proposition at best.
5. Value betting - find low risk high reward action
Successful football betting requires getting value on your bets. Basically this means getting better than the "true" odds on your picks. For instance, if your objective prediction for a game suggests that the Raiders should be receiving 5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value-betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward ratio is very much in your favor, making Oakland a strong play.
6. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For years, the Dallas Cowboys were one such team, having captured the public's admiration during the Aikman-Irvin years. High-value bets can often be found by betting against these teams because the odds makers adjust the line to reflect the expected amount of public money. Thus, the underdog is often listed with better odds or a larger point spread than they realistically deserve.
7. Stay abreast of injuries
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the importance of an injured player and the quality of his back up. Remember that second-string players are often highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so you may find good value in this situation. However, beware of situations where there is more than one injured stud or there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational leader.
8. Keep accurate records
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for increasing your winning percentage. For example, do you tend to bet your home team or your favorite team?
9. Don't bet just for the sake of betting
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there are sports betting opportunities almost every day of the year. Don't bet simply for the sake of gambling - be patient and wait for good value betting opportunities.
10. Practice smart money management
Good money management is just as important as picking winners. Increase your betting amount only when showing an overall profit and reduce your betting amount when you are losing. Try to set a maximum percentage of your betting capital that will be placed on any one bet in order to minimize your exposure. Many professional handicappers suggest that no more than five percent of your wagering capital be at risk on any one bet, no matter how strongly you feel about the game.
Most players start the season with absolutely no clue as to how much capital it takes to withstand the ups and downs of a typical football season. You should give yourself enough money to have a chance all year. Sports’ betting is nearly always full of streaks. Even with great handicapping, you're still going to lose 40 percent of your bets, so be prepared.
Here is the important part. Never risk more than 25 percent to 30 percent of your bankroll on any week. In other words, if you like 5 pro games you will bet 6 percent of your bankroll on each game. On the best plays you will bet 8 percent and maybe 2 to 3 times a year you will find a game that's worth 10 percent of your bankroll. If you love a lot of action, simply drop your bet size (2 percent to 3 percent), but never risk more than 33 percent of your bankroll in one day. If you win one week, your bankroll is larger so you'll automatically increase your bets as you win and conversely decrease your bets as you lose. The purpose of the reserve is to recapitulate one of your bankrolls if the season starts out cold and you hit an early losing streak. In a typical year you should be cautious weeks 1 - 4, be bold weeks 5 - 12, and then revert to caution until the play-offs and bowl games.
This is a simple money management scheme and there are more sophisticated methods of money management available, but for most people this method should work just fine. We keep track of our hypothetical bankrolls using this method.
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