Sports Betting
This is a must read for novice sports bettors!
Betting the last week of the NFL season can be a real nightmare for novice football bettors. If you were one of many who logged into your Sunday morning to find some of the most unbelievable lines you've ever seen, your not alone and don't be embarassed if you got duped into playing those lines. Just be sure that you took it as a lesson learned.
Week 17 NFL wreaks havoc for many each and every year. The reason for this is that NFL teams in contention to make the playoffs or that are already in the playoffs with their home field locked up can present some SERIOUS situations in which there is no motivation to win at all or huge motivation to win.
With that being said, teams who have home field locked up and have nothing to gain will almost always sit their starters for either the whole game or half the game at the very minimum. A perfect example of this would be Week 17 of the 2005/2006 season when the red hot Seattle Seahawks opened as a minus 2 favorite at Lambeau Field vs. the Green Bay Packers. The line quickly dropped and then started going in Green Bay's favor with a gigantic 7 and a half point move all the way to -5.5 at gametime.
A novice bettor not aware of the fact that both QB Matt Hasselback and star RB Shaun Alexander along with all the rest of the starters and major cogs would be sitting after the first or second series of the game would view this as a dream line with Seattle getting 5.5 points. Naturally, the bettor can't contain himself and throws down a whopper on Seattle at +5.5. All the while, the Packers are the value play here despite having to lay the points. Seattle has no motivation to win and they want to protect their starters health for the playoffs so this puts them in a position where they really don't give a hoot if they lose the game. They just wanna get out of Lambeau healthy!
Another example from the 2005 week 17 season would be Cinci at Kansas City. KC needed Denver loss which happened the day before, they needed to win against Cinci and also need Pitt to lose in order to make the playoffs. With these cicrumstances in play, you can bet that they will bring their "A game" against a Cinci team that is already in the playoffs and had planned on sitting Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson amongst others. The already hefty line actually went up even more making Cinci getting 10 points almost a no brainer to the average bettor. How could they kick butt all season long and not be able to cover a 9 or 10 point spread? Well, easy, motivated starters vs. 2nd and 3rd string players are an easy mark, even for a bad team.
We hope this article has better educated you to think twice before betting into fishy lines at the end of an NFL season. Always be sure to read the game previews which usually let a reader know if a team is fighting for playoff position, has thrown in the towel, or is going to be sitting their starters. It makes a huge difference and will better help you to explain the fishy line because something one will quickly figure out when betting on sports is that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is! Investigate the spread and why it is so off kilter before chasing something that you are almost sure to get smoked on.
Good luck in your action!
http://www.sport-betting-links.com
Betting the last week of the NFL season can be a real nightmare for novice football bettors. If you were one of many who logged into your Sunday morning to find some of the most unbelievable lines you've ever seen, your not alone and don't be embarassed if you got duped into playing those lines. Just be sure that you took it as a lesson learned.
Week 17 NFL wreaks havoc for many each and every year. The reason for this is that NFL teams in contention to make the playoffs or that are already in the playoffs with their home field locked up can present some SERIOUS situations in which there is no motivation to win at all or huge motivation to win.
With that being said, teams who have home field locked up and have nothing to gain will almost always sit their starters for either the whole game or half the game at the very minimum. A perfect example of this would be Week 17 of the 2005/2006 season when the red hot Seattle Seahawks opened as a minus 2 favorite at Lambeau Field vs. the Green Bay Packers. The line quickly dropped and then started going in Green Bay's favor with a gigantic 7 and a half point move all the way to -5.5 at gametime.
A novice bettor not aware of the fact that both QB Matt Hasselback and star RB Shaun Alexander along with all the rest of the starters and major cogs would be sitting after the first or second series of the game would view this as a dream line with Seattle getting 5.5 points. Naturally, the bettor can't contain himself and throws down a whopper on Seattle at +5.5. All the while, the Packers are the value play here despite having to lay the points. Seattle has no motivation to win and they want to protect their starters health for the playoffs so this puts them in a position where they really don't give a hoot if they lose the game. They just wanna get out of Lambeau healthy!
Another example from the 2005 week 17 season would be Cinci at Kansas City. KC needed Denver loss which happened the day before, they needed to win against Cinci and also need Pitt to lose in order to make the playoffs. With these cicrumstances in play, you can bet that they will bring their "A game" against a Cinci team that is already in the playoffs and had planned on sitting Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson amongst others. The already hefty line actually went up even more making Cinci getting 10 points almost a no brainer to the average bettor. How could they kick butt all season long and not be able to cover a 9 or 10 point spread? Well, easy, motivated starters vs. 2nd and 3rd string players are an easy mark, even for a bad team.
We hope this article has better educated you to think twice before betting into fishy lines at the end of an NFL season. Always be sure to read the game previews which usually let a reader know if a team is fighting for playoff position, has thrown in the towel, or is going to be sitting their starters. It makes a huge difference and will better help you to explain the fishy line because something one will quickly figure out when betting on sports is that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is! Investigate the spread and why it is so off kilter before chasing something that you are almost sure to get smoked on.
Good luck in your action!
http://www.sport-betting-links.com
posted by adairk at
11:18 a.m.
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